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He was a huge favourite of mine too. The arc was more an afterthought and maybe if they had it in the plan for the season he may have been more ready for it. Still ran a huge race though.
Regards continuous he won the race early then Ryan just kept him up to his work. He only really raced in the last few furlongs and Ryan said he was cantering for most of the race. He is rapidly improving and I think with question marks over those at the top of the market surely will take his chance. Plus if it is genuinely soft he will cope with it. Ace impact I’m not sure truly stays the 12f and although hukum is solid I think he’s beatable. Breeders Cup turf may also come into the equation if auguste has run his last race.
There is an obvious question mark about Leger horses going on to the Arc.
However that question mark probably means his chance will be dismissed or underestimated by punters / the market.Value Is EverythingHas a horse ever completed the double in the same season, Ballymoss took both but over two seasons.
The more I know the less I understand.
“Has a horse ever completed the double in the same season”
Nope. Hurricane Lane recently got beat 3/4 length trying but he had 3 week break between the races. I personally don’t think Continuous will be sufficiently recovered to run to a high enough level.
True Mike but…
Not all St Leger winners run in the Arc.
Not all St Leger winners recover quickly enough from their Donny triumph.
Not all St Leger winners act on the going at Longchamp.
Not all St Leger winners have enough speed regardless of the conditions on the day.
Not all St Leger winners have the going in the Arc that puts enough emphasis on stamina
Not all St Leger winners get a fast enough pace in the Arc to put enough emphasis on stamina.
Not all St Leger winners that run in the Arc get luck in running.Had just one of the runners – Sassafras – not run in the Arc Nijinsky (who did not get a perfect way through either) would have won the Arc.
Had Ivanjica not run in the Arc then St Leger winner Crow would’ve won.
Had All Along not run Sun Princess would’ve won.
Had Subotica not run User Friendly would’ve won.
Those Leger winners to finish 3rd also beat a lot of Arc rivals.If considering the number of Arc rivals St Leger winners (that have had Arc race conditions in their favour) have beaten… Then imo they haven’t done too badly. Therefore – although of course there is logic in the reasons why a Leger winner doesn’t win an Arc; their placed efforts suggest a better record / chance than most punters give them credit for and could easily be value.
It’s all about the price!
Continuous is particularly interesting because imo he has more speed than most St Leger winners and coming from Ballydoyle is (anyway) much more likely than most Leger winners to get a race run at a pace that tests stamina. If leaving it until final decs and the going are known, then some of the other question marks about St Leger winner Arc candidates should also be clearer.
Value Is EverythingIf I go through a race looking at all the aspects of form and rate a horse as having a poor chance of winning then – considering all the chances of all the runners too – I might think that particular horse has an 8% chance of winning. If the market believes it has an even worse chance I’ll take the 20/1.
It’s the same principle for St Leger winners running in the Arc – only at a bit shorter odds. I know there are good reasons for St Leger winners / Continuous not winning… But if the odds are big enough I’ll back it.
When there is a particular stat that makes many punters dismiss a horse’s chance I’ll often find it value. Betting “against the crowd” as someone more knowledgeable than me once said / wrote.
Value Is EverythingNo, it is not the only stat that matters, CAS.
If all the last 10 St Leger winners had been runner-up in the Arc and Continuous was available @ 100/1…No St Leger winner having won the Arc does not mean no St Leger winner will ever win the Arc.
Many people dismissed Noble Yeats chance in the Grand National because no 7 year old had won a Grand National since 1940.
Why would it be harder to win the Leger and win the Arc than being placed in the Leger and winning the Arc? There is such a thing as coincidence.
Parth finished fourth in the Lager before winning the Arc.
Alleged finished second in the Leger before winning the Arc.Value Is Everything“No St Leger winner having won the Arc does not mean no St Leger winner will ever win the Arc”.
Agree – but the stats tell you it is extremely unlikely.
Your previous post was full of so many “if this” and “if that”, it begs the old music hall joke about if my auntie had you know whats she’d be my uncle.
All those horses DID run in the Arc and they DID beat the Leger winner.
If Continuous wins the Arc – fine, I will happily say well done to connections. But by far the percentage call is to oppose him. It would still not be a bad decision even if he wins because it is based on sound reasoning.
I think it will have to be a sub standard Arc for Continuous to win.
Sorry, you misunderstood my main points, CAS.
My point was how many rivals St Leger winners beat to be second or even third…
And how – although there are obvious reasons why a St Leger winner does not win the Arc – there are also some reasons why “zero” could be more of a coincidence than many punters believe. Fact there’s been (considering those who’ve had the right conditions) many St Leger winners who’ve come very close to winning is imo a fair point to make against “zero” being a rightful dismissal stat.There are always many “ifs” in horse racing, that’s the joy of it.
However, the three posts were to explain why Continuous – of all St Leger winners going on to the Arc – seems to have fewer of those “ifs” than most who’ve tried before.Value Is Everything“If Continuous wins the Arc – fine, I will happily say well done to connections. But by far the percentage call is to oppose him. It would still not be a bad decision even if he wins because it is based on sound reasoning”.
I think it will have to be a sub standard Arc for Continuous to win.
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If opposing the horse just because of one stat; when there’s other evidence to consider and the price makes it worth taking a chance… then it is not “the percentage call” or “sound reasoning”.
I agree, it will have to be a sub-standard Arc for Continuous to win.
But this looks like a sub-standard Arc to me.
Value Is EverythingZero Japanese horses have ever won the Arc.
Does not mean if Equinox runs I’d oppose him.Value Is Everything“Sorry, you misunderstood my main points, CAS.”
You just can’t keep the patronising tone out of your voice, can you Ginger?
Continuous was 12/1 on Saturday evening. It did not appeal to me but I could see why some people might want to take a chance at that price.
Clearly some punters have because he is now around 8/1. I think that represents poor value for a horse that has won what is historically an abysmal trial for the Arc (at least as far as winning it is concerned) and probably had a hard enough race on Saturday.
I am on Ace Impact at 11/1. I am happy to watch Continuous at 3 points shorter.
Continous is improving with racing so I could see him being a Dylan Thomas or Duke of marmalade and would be a good bet next season if he keeps on improving.
“Sorry, you misunderstood my main points, CAS.”
You just can’t keep the patronising tone out of your voice, can you Ginger?
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Jeez,
I said “sorry” because I didn’t explain myself very well and therefore it was my fault you misunderstood my main points.If I thought it was your fault you misunderstood, I would not have said “sorrry”.
Value Is Everything
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