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That desert hero was able to come from the back in a slowly run race suggests he has a good turn of foot
Which makes it very possible that he won’t stay the 1m6 1/2f strongly enough to win
The frankie factor with the casual Saturday punters seems to be driving down the price of arrest. Similar happened with him in the Derby and Chaldean in the guineas. Drifts on the Friday then gets backed in on the Saturday.
GT – Do you think that Arrest is still a value bet at 9/2? Are you worried by the drift of Desert Hero out to 15/2+?
Desert Hero not staying is a possibility FF. If the Gordon was the only evidence we have then it would be a distinct possibility. But the further he went at Royal Ascot the better he looked and fact he relaxes so well in his 12f races – for me – suggests he should get this trip.
Value Is EverythingYes, I do think both Arrest and Desert Hero are still value. However, I may change my mind after the times of the first two races are known. Although the round course is probably softer than the straight course; if times suggest it’s good on the straight then it’ll probably be only good-soft on the round.
With Desert Hero Good ground may well even help, as it won’t tax his stamina as much. So if the first two races come within three quarters of a second of Racing Post standard you might want to change to just an EW bet on Desert Hero.
Value Is EverythingDesert Hero very recently got given a Melbourne Cup entry. It’s perfectly possible he’ll stay this far.
77% of the field come from two stables and as Johnny Murtagh said, when you ride for Coolmore at least you know how the race would be run.
The more I know the less I understand.
I’m in the continuous camp but I have tickled Alexandrouplus e.w , I’ve a feeling they’ll be a big prices horse in the 3 and while needing to improve he,s the unexposed horse
Judged from the Flying Childers and Scotsman compared to today’s Portland handicap time ,it isn’t much quicker than yesterday.
Value Is EverythingI think it’s worth looking at sires with good results on soft ground. I think the Nathaniels (Chesspiece) like a bit of dig, Sea the Stars often not bad (Desert Hero) and perhaps most of all the Camelots.
I liked O’Brien’s affectionate description of Denmark as a big bold baby but couldn’t trust him to get his head down and fight it out (although perhaps he will let down a bit better today).
So that leaves me with Alexandrupolis. No problem with the trip on breeding, the stable like him, should come on a ton for his pipe opener and he’s my selection at 40s ew.
Looks quite loose on top up the straight but outside the Champagne Stakes, the times suggest that it is somewhere between good and good to soft (maybe more closer to the good side) but who knows how soft the round course will still be.
Hope the King being in the paddock doesn’t gee up the crowd and in turn the horses.
Value Is EverythingGodolphin horses have been so poor I normally wouldn’t touch them.
If Chesspiece was trained by Appleby I’d have left well alone there
surely must be a prblem in the yard. However Chesspiece is trained
by Simon and Ed Crisford and ran Desert Hero to a neck last time out.
Desert Hero is 6/1 whilst Chesspiece is 16/1. I reckon he’s overpriced
and well worth an e/w at least.
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