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For me it is
HANS HOLBEIN 16/1
Won at Chester last week that performance more like a stayer than horse for a derby think a decent run at Epsom be even shorter in better.Looks a top stayer in the making.
Maybe aob has a bunch of stayers in his 3yos as Kilimanjaro looks another ideal St leger type. Maybe both could be ascot gold cup horses as John magnier loves winning that race.
My early feelings on the St Leger are that I am having doubts Jack Hobbs will line up there. John Gosden has entered him in the Eclipse, so that suggests to me that they’ll be keeping him to a mile and a half or less.
Christophermarlowe, from the same stable, looks more like the type who won’t be fast enough to be involved at the Derby trip but I have slight concerns whether he’s good enough, even for a Leger.
Elm Park will be the first name on many people’s shortlist but I don’t see him as another Kingston Hill at this stage. The Derby will tell us more but I just a bit concerned whether this horse will make the same progress as the previous Racing Post Trophy winner. The horse strikes me as slightly awkward and he’s skinny enough for the Derby in my mind.
Aiden O’ Brien often seems to land this with whatever is left standing after some of his more fancied ones either head to loftier targets or fall by the wayside throughout the season. The key may well be in identifying those that will end up heading here. Ironically, a good showing from Hans Holbein in the Derby might well make it a lot less likely that he would run in the Leger. It seems more probable that if he lacked the pace at Epsom, then he might head here.
Giovanni Canaletto is a horse I had pencilled in as a Leger Horse, particularly if he missed the Derby. I would have thought they would be keen to run him in a Classic. Again, defeat at Epsom, should he run, probably puts him down as a more likely runner at Doncaster in September.
I had Ralph Beckett’s Chemical Charge picked out for the Leger way back in March. His unbeaten Sea The Stars colt won two races last season and struck me as a possible St Leger horse this season. I am assuming he has had a setback though, as he has not been out yet and I have heard very little, seeing no entries for him at the moment.
The market is made up pretty much from O’Brien horses of various types and a couple of others here and there.
The Derby will be essential viewing. If I had to pick one now it would be Giovanni Canaletto at 20/1 and I would lay Elm Park all day at 6/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I can see this turning into a very hot end of year race.
Sadly, it looks that way many years and then ends up a load of old dregs.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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