- This topic has 35 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
Nobody interested in the final Classic?
My 100% book for good-soft ground is:
Idaho 11/10, Muntahaa 100/30, Sword Fighter 15/2, Housesofparliament 17/2, Ventura Storm 20/1, Harbour Law 50/1, Ormito 66/1, Harrison 300/1, The Tartan Spartan 1000/1.With almost half the field 50/1+ and an opposable odds on fav in a 9 runner race… this is an outstanding each way race.
Not many seem good enough and some are doubtful stayers or both.
I’ve gone for Muntahaa who seems to be crying out for this trip and stable in good form; with an each way on a guaranteed stayer Sword Fighter, hopefully Master O’Brien sets a good pace without being suicidal. Wouldn’t have thought he’d go too quick because the fav wouldn’t want an out and out test of stamina. Housesofparliament is another who should be suited by the distance, just a bit worried miht be at his very best on a sound surface – daisey cutter action.Value Is EverythingI nearly bumped the thread up earlier.
Not so sure it is a great each-way race as although I have been against the favourite all year he could still win this easily.
He was ridden like a non-trier at York and eventually swept past weakening rivals. Ridden conservatively he avoided any sort of battle and seemingly wasn’t stopping at the line. Is tomorrow’s race any better?
I suppose the best chance of getting him beat might lie with the weather and the possibility of the race being turned into a slog. If his stamina does begin to ebb away he might not fancy the battle.
Who will be the winners and losers if it turns soft?
I think Housesofparliament will be the chief sufferer.
Not really sure about the ground for Muntahaa but in any case I couldn’t have him at that price.
Sword Fighter shouldn’t have a problem with the ground but is he there to set a slow pace for Idaho or a fast pace for himself? His chance probably depends on the answer to that question.
If forced to chisel out a bet it would be each-way Ventura Storm and Ormito. They should cope with softening ground and are closely matched on form. Favourite aside, I don’t think they have that much to find for the place angle.
I’m going into tomorrow with
Muntahaa at 14/1
Ventura Storm Each-way 25/1
Beacon Rock and Across The Stars are two dead bets.
Let it rain.
The forecast is for quite a bit overnight and the clerk warned that it may be soft for the Leger.
Good luck.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Have a reasonable bet on Idaho at 5/4….slightly concerned about the prospect of soft ground over pretty much a new distance for the whole field….can have a tendency to throw up funny results. His form is so far clear of everything else in the field though I’m still confident….Seamie just has to ride the same as at York, just hold on for 2furlongs longer please
I’m on Idaho, the class act and the pedigree. Ventura Storm is improving, when outstaying the pedigree and could finish runner up.
By the way that was some performance, imo, of The Tartan Spartan in the Queen’s Vase 6 lenghts behind Sword Fighter over 16 f softish ground in only his second career start. Maybe I should have gone for that one?Best Wishes
SilkI’m not sure that there’s going to be as much rain as feared, with talk of soft or even very soft ground. Looking at the radar maps, the rain seems to be breaking up a bit before it hits Doncaster. There might be no more than 8-10 mm between now and Leger time, which would probably mean good to soft ground.
I’m not sure that there’s going to be as much rain as feared, with talk of soft or even very soft ground. Looking at the radar maps, the rain seems to be breaking up a bit before it hits Doncaster. There might be no more than 8-10 mm between now and Leger time, which would probably mean good to soft ground.
So the rain continued to miss Doncaster throughout the night, there’s no stopping Idaho now. Housesofparliament the main, perhaps only, danger now.
What is the exact state of play with the ground? The only reason I ask is that last night I thought Czabo was my best bet of the day but when I saw the Morning Line I was hoping for a withdrawal. Strangely, it still seems to be shortening.
It isn’t a good idea to chase losses and I don’t think it is a good idea to try and rectify potential losses either.
Housesofparliament is the big winner in the lack of rain stakes. His potential demise was the main each-way angle. Now I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it was an O’Brien 1-2-3.
Trying to look on the bright side it might give Ventura Storm a better chance of staying the longer trip.
Nobody interested in the final Classic?
My 100% book for
-
good-soft
ground is:
Idaho 11/10, Muntahaa 100/30, Sword Fighter 15/2, Housesofparliament 17/2, Ventura Storm 20/1, Harbour Law 50/1, Ormito 66/1, Harrison 300/1, The Tartan Spartan 1000/1.With almost half the field 50/1+ and an opposable odds on fav in a 9 runner race… this is an outstanding each way race.
Not many seem good enough and some are doubtful stayers or both.
I’ve gone for Muntahaa who seems to be crying out for this trip and stable in good form; with an each way on a guaranteed stayer Sword Fighter, hopefully Master O’Brien sets a good pace without being suicidal. Wouldn’t have thought he’d go too quick because the fav wouldn’t want an out and out test of stamina. Housesofparliament is another who should be suited by the distance, just a bit worried miht be at his very best on a sound surface – daisey cutter action.Oh Ssssssssssssugar! You’re right Sunspangled, or at the very least: On good-firm and not good-soft… Muntahaa and Sword Fighter don’t now have the chance I thought, Idaho and Housesofparliament better than I thought. My betfair screen is getting complicated! I’d still want to be against Idaho at the price though and they’ve pushed Muntahaa out too much. Sword Fighter doesn’t have the chance I originaly thought – less emphasis on stamina – he’ll need to go a strong pace and will Coolmore allow that when it’s against Idaho? I’ll be changing Sword Fighter in to a saver bet and Housesofparliament in to the main each way bet.
Value Is EverythingI have backed Housesofparliament each way at 11/1 which seems a huge price to me!!
If the FAV stays it wins but is not my kind of price!!
Oh…..
I don’t think any of us were expecting THAT.
Leaves a few unanswered questions anyway! Feel very sorry for poor Seamie Heffernan, hope he’s okay.
Congrats to Laura Mongan.
I was another EW on Housesofparliament, yay!
Thank goodness Idaho and his jockey were ok, I had one of those hide behind the sofa moments until I saw Idaho run on sound..great result for the Mongans. Another incident packed St.Leger..well done to all who backed Harbour Law and the placed horses ….
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Sometimes you wish that straight was a little bit shorter. Stamina won out. You couldn’t blame De Sousa for kicking when he did but those last few yards were telling. I backed the winner at Newmarket and it was difficult to see why he was going to reverse the form with Houseofparliament or indeed previous form with Sword Fighter. Considering he was a horse who everyone was talking up as a battler Sword Fighter dropped away quite tamely and may just have had enough for the year.
Not great news for short price punters this week with Idaho following on from Nemoralia.
Feel sorry for Idaho backers, although in a race that brought out stamina to the fore I am not convinced he’d have won.
What a great result for racing and Epsom in particular.
Value Is EverythingThe past few days racing has bought out more emotion in me than the whole flat season combined. Yesterday was wonderful.
Fair play to the Mongan’s, great story from that angle.
I thought I had the winner with Ventura Storm but it wasn’t to be. I did come out of it OK with him at 25/1 each-way.
Muntahaa was a horse I had much less confidence in after his Chester scramble and he was very short on what he had done.
When you are going harder at the front than the horse who was ostensibly running on his own merits, but in all likelihood was running to set it up for Idaho, then you know you are probably going too fast. Connections didn’t get the rain they wanted but I suspect Muntahaa simply wasn’t good enough.
Idaho fans will probably feel their horse was just making his move when he came down and would definitely have won. Having watched Idaho fail to maintain what looked a winning run a few times already, I am not so sure.
A horse coming in rated 102 wins it and that can’t be indicative of a Group 1 race.
This was as poor a St Leger as I can recall and Kingston Hill would have torn this field a new one.
Panned out like Group 3 level for me and the strongest stayer won it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.