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Spring Mile 2021

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Spring Mile 2021

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  • #1532335
    Avatar photorobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7520

    The consolation race for the Lincoln, runners can be found at

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/15/doncaster/2021-03-27/778386

    My top rated are:

    Poet’s Lady 115
    Howzer Black 105
    Spiorad 103
    Mascat 103
    Artistic Rifles 103
    Global Esteem 103
    Home Before Dusk 102
    Dawaaleeb 101
    Badenscoth 101

    Very tight with the exception of POET’S LADY (10/1) who is lightly raced and progressive. Has a step up in class here but took on useful animals in lower grade last season and it’s reasonable to expect a bit more this term.
    Of the other Artistic Rifles (8/1) was progressive last season and has a decent pipe opener at Newcastle.
    More exposed Spiorad (16/1, 18/1 in a place) has been running well over the mile at Newcastle which should set him up well for this.

    Those three against the field for me.

    #1532341
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15024

    Had a good look at this today Rob, but couldn’t split…..

    Anythingtoday
    Mostawaa
    Overwrite

    …..and I wasn’t 100% on them. No bet for now, and I’m going to try my best to sit it out. See you on Saturday on here, when I change my mind.

    Good luck with your trio

    #1532342
    Avatar photorobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7520

    Yes, it was mainly very tight but Poet’s Lady’s form line through Freyja stands out as you can tell from the 10lbs advantage. If there’s been natural physical progression from 3 to 4 then I am hopeful of going close. These form lines don’t always work out as they might, but enough of them have done since I’ve been calculating ratings to provide hope.

    #1532375
    Silver Spoon
    Participant
    • Total Posts 452

    I fear that the draw will work against him, but taking advantage of the 7pl, Howzer Black 22-1

    Free bet

    #1532475
    daznvern
    Participant
    • Total Posts 12

    Hi all, Just found this if its any use and can help narrow down the selections,

    2.35 – Unibet Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4
    Trends
    15/18 – Carried 8-13 or more
    15/18 – Aged 4 years-old
    15/18 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
    13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
    12/18 – Won over a mile before
    10/18 – Won from a single-figure draw
    2/18 – Winning favourites
    2/18 – Won last time out
    3/18 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
    1/18 – Won a race at Doncaster before
    Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
    Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 18 years

    #1532577
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6657

    Good stats

    Very strange that the spring mile is won by low draws and the Lincoln high draws

    #1532767
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6657

    Those trends throw up Dubai Souq

    Gonna have a few pennies on, do like acquitted but he’s far too short for me to be backing in a big field

    16/1 e/w 7 places

    #1532803
    Avatar photoHe Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5976

    I’ve played Amayasmont , race fit and I want to be on the side of Fahey horses at the moment with the yard in form , my other play is home from dusk , he hasn’t won on turf which has to be a concern however he only ran once on turf last year when in the wrong place in the hunt cup , another who,s race fit there maybe some value in a horse with a good strike rate , good luck all , we,ll need betting on furf at this point is a minefield

    #1532837
    Crezzy95
    Participant
    • Total Posts 11

    Plenty of money around for Amaysmont this morning. Happy to have him E/W. Not got a strong fancy in this to be honest.

    #1532843
    All Jeff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 637

    I’ve went with the same bet FinalFurlong, I think that he’s got a great chance of a return with those terms. Dubai Souq 16-1 ew 7pls

    #1532935
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6657

    I went into full panic mode when acquitted cruised to the front there after deciding not to back him

    Was very happy to see him worn down late on as that wouldve been a heart breaker especially after the drift to a decent price

    #1532938
    Avatar photoCork All Star
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8937

    If James Doyle could ride that race again, I am sure he would not want to hit the front too soon. Looks like a horse who needs some headgear on.

    #1532940
    Avatar photorobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7520

    Quite pleased with how my ratings worked out in that one, but Sod’s Law said I backed Poet’s Lady when my second choice won the race! Spiorad and Howzer Black not far away, so my figures had the race quite nicely covered.

    #1532946
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6657

    Yes cork

    Or a drop to 7f

    He should’ve won really but travelled so well he hit the front plenty early

    Spiorad has run a huge race against the draw bias

    #1532949
    Avatar photoCork All Star
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8937

    “He should’ve won really”.

    Yes, I think he should FF! Not blaming Doyle – it is just bad luck. At least I backed him each way, so pinch a small profit.

    I also have him in an each way double with Eastern World – so watch this one hack up now!

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