Speed Ratings

[Artemis]

Saturday 7 June

Epsom
1.40 Cobo Bay going?prefers some give 8th/12 16/1[/color:3sega03f]
Midships £80@6/1 generally available 6th/12 13/2[/color:3sega03f]
3.15 Morinqua £30@18.5 Betfair 15th/19 16/1[/color:3sega03f]
Merlin’s Dancer £30@18.5 Betfair 2nd/19 12/1[/color:3sega03f]
4.00 New Approach Won/16 5/1[/color:3sega03f]
Frozen Fire 11th/16 16/1[/color:3sega03f]
Tajaweed 8th/16 10/1[/color:3sega03f]
Tartan Bearer £80@6/1 generally available 2nd/16 6/1[/color:3sega03f]
4.45 Mull Of Dubai £70@7/1 generally available 14th/15 7/1[/color:3sega03f]
5.20 Joseph Henry £110@9/2 Generally available 9th/12 4/1f[/color:3sega03f]
Angus Newz £25@23 Betfair NR[/color:3sega03f]
Idle Power draw?? 5th/12 14/1[/color:3sega03f]
Musselburgh
2.20 Deadly Encounter too short 5th/6 15/8[/color:3sega03f]
Spin Cycle too short(6/4 each of two, 1 to 4 your stakes) won 11/10f[/color:3sega03f]
Dispol Kylie going? 6th/6 20/1

Loss on the day £400

Totals

59 bets, 7 winners, Stakes £5,285 Loss £815[/color:3sega03f]

[Artemis]

Horses that recorded Topspeed figures of 90+(85 2yos) in the week ending May 31. The figure also has to be greater than the horse’s official rating, where this is available, or close to the horse’s previous best rating if not available.

Tuesday 27 May

Redcar
Intervision 93

Wednesday 28 May

Beverley
Knavesmire 2yo 88
Caranbola 2yo 87
Corryborough 109
Leopardstown
Teacht An Earraig 102

Thursday 29 May

Sandown
Punjabi 96

Friday 30 May

Haydock
Little Pete 95

Saturday 31 May

Goodwood
Bankable 105
Versaki 2yo 85
Haydock
Dabbers Chief 2yo 86
Patkai 106
York
Samuel 116
Lion Sands 111
Red Gala 108
Soapy Danger 108
Heron Bay 101

Sunday 1 June

Marchand D’Or 121
Equiano 111
Vision D’Etat
Famous Name

The amended list is as follows:

Ajigolo
All The Aces
Allied Powers
Ancien Regime
Art Connoisseur 2yo
Bankable
Blythe Knight
Bob’s Surprise
Bonnie Charlie 2yo?
Border Music?
Borderlescott
Bougereau
Bronze Cannon
Cape
Cape Vale
Captain Gerard
Captain Webb
Caranbola 2yo
Centennial
Cerito 2yo
Clifton Dancer
Cobo Bay
Collection
Colony
Commander Cave
Corryborough
Creachadoir
Dabbers Chief 2yo
Deadly Encounter 2yo
Democrate
Doctor Faustus
Doctor Fremantle
Doncaster Rover 2yo
Duntulm
Emily Blake
Endless Luck
Enforce
Equiano
Everymanforhimself
Express Wish
Ezdiyad
Falco
Famous Name
Finsceal Beo
Flawed Genius
Fleeting Spirit
Flying Clarets
Frozen Fire
Generous Thought
Hamish McGonagal
Heron Bay
Infallible
Intense Focus 2yo
Intervision
Ishetoo
Jaser
Jedediah
Jimmy Styles?
King Charles
Knavesmire 2yo
Lang Shining
Lesson In Humility
Lion Sands
Little Pete
Mad Rush
Manzila
Marchand D’Or
Markab
Marvellous Value
Mia’s Boy
Michita
Mourilyan
Moyenne Corniche
Northern Fling
Oceana Gold
Orizaba 2yo
Paco Boy
Patkai
Perks
Phantom Whisper?
Prima Luce
Prior Warning
Promising Lead
Proponent
Punjabi
Red Gala
Royal Rock
Samuel
Sanana Perdida
Shabiba
Sir Gerry
Soapy Danger
Starlish
Staying On
Sunship 2yo
Tajaweed
Tartan Bearer
Tastahil
Teacht An Eaarraig
Tiger Dream
Tombi
Top Lock
U S Ranger
Unneffer
Valery Borzov
Versaki 2yo
Vision D’Etat
Westphalia 2yo
Whistledownwind
Zarkava

A number of horses have now been removed from the list after running below their figure with no apparent excuse.

[Artemis]

Thursday 12 June

Haydock
3.35 Mey Blossom – better at 5f, disappointing last twice. unplaced 16/1[/color:1vbj2ibv]

Newbury
3.50 Annie Skates – not convinced by overall form 3rd 11/2[/color:1vbj2ibv]

No bets

[Artemis]

Friday 13 June

Horses running today that have recorded a Topspeed figure of 90+ this season and that figure is within 10lb of the RPR top-rated.

York
4.35
Bond City – prob flattered by Epsom form/time.
Everymanforhimself £100@5/1 generally available

4th/19 4/1jf[/color:2e8g2t7s]

Goodwood
6.20
Angus Newz £70@7/1 generally available

6th/10 14/1

Loss on day £170[/color:2e8g2t7s]

[Artemis]

I have just finished updating my list from last week’s Weekender and I’m finding it is now up to about 130 horses, probably too long to keep posting on this thread. Now that the season is well under way and Royal Ascot is almost upon us, there is no need to keep referring to such a list because the RP form and racedata on the site gives all the information needed to find qualifying selections.

Essentially, I’m looking for horses that have achieved a Topspeed rating of 90+(2yo 85+) this turf season that are running in races where the rating is within 10lbs of the RPR top-rated. I’m also considering if these horses have favourable/unfavourable conditions in terms of going,course and distance, and most importantly, the likely odds. I also consider quite a few other things in relation to the ratings such as their credibility in some instances and the horse’s overall ratings profile.

Suggested bets are on a cover to win (£500) basis, matching risk and reward and reflect how most punters bet in reallity.

I’m down so far on the season about £800 from 59 bets, which isn’t very encouraging. There are likely to be about twenty or so bets at Royal Ascot and only two or three winners are required to get into profit, so I’m optimistic. Time will tell, as they say.

[dave jay]

Artemis, do you want a web-query tool to keep your list manageable and automated ?

I’m sure I sent you one before .. makes this a cut and paste job!

[Artemis]

Thanks Dave, I think you probably did send me the tool, but I don’t seem to have it. I’d be obliged if you let me have it again and I’ll have a play with it. I’m not sure whether or not I’ll use it for the ‘list’, because I don’t think I’m going to keep it, but the tool might be useful for some other purpose.

Your’e a bit quiet these days, Dave. Pressure of work or not taking as much interest as you used to? Always nice to hear from you.

[Artemis]

Saturday 14 June

York

2.50 Fishforcompliments – disappointing last three races. 4th/12 7/1[/color:3q9n3u6e]

3.25 Hamish McGonagall £55@9/1 generally available
12th/19 8/1[/color:3q9n3u6e]

Sandown

2.30 Tiger Dream £35@14/1 Betfred 6th/10 10/1[/color:3q9n3u6e]

3.05 Stevie Gee £125@4/1 Paddy Power 3rd/12 4/1cf[/color:3q9n3u6e]

3.40 Corrybrough – odds on- 4/6 won 4/7[/color:3q9n3u6e]
Tajdeef -7/2, not tempted. unplaced[/color:3q9n3u6e]

Leicester

7.45 Little Pete – minimum acceptable odds 3/1 2nd/9 5/2 No bet

Loss on the day £215

Totals
64 bets
7 winners
Stakes £5,670
Loss £1,200[/color:3q9n3u6e]

[dave jay]

I will get it sent off to you next week Artemis. I have been working away from home quite a bit this year (Far East) and you cant really keep a track of whats going on with the racing. That combined with the way SPs are returned have sort of put me off racing a bit.

Good luck today btw, always read the forum but dont always post.

[Artemis]

Sunday 15 June

Doncaster
2.20 Habshan minimum odds 4/1 4th/8 7/2, opened 4/1 loss £125[/color:h2wmowdw][/b:h2wmowdw]

3.25 Orpenindeed minimum odds 8/1 3rd/13 6/1 no bet[[/color:h2wmowdw]/b]
Ishetoo[/b:h2wmowdw] minimum odds 8/1 5th/13 13/2 no bet[/color:h2wmowdw]

Salisbury
3.35 Borderlescott minimum odds 6/4 2nd/9 7/4 opened 6/4 loss £330[/color:h2wmowdw]
Beckermet minimum odds 6/1 8th/9 11/1 loss £50

Loss on day £380

Totals
67 bets
7 winners
Stakes £6,175
Loss £1,705[/color:h2wmowdw]

I may update with odds later – none available as yet, only Betfair with very low liquidity and/or unfavourably high margins will get better.

[Artemis]

Tuesday 17 June
Royal Ascot

3.05
Fleeting Spirit £220@9/4 general 4th/13 15/8f[/color:8ub45u4d]

3.45
Henrythenavigator too short, 4/6. won/8 4/7f[/color:8ub45u4d]
Falco £90@11/2 general 5th/8 13/2[/color:8ub45u4d]

4.20
Orizaba £140@7/2 general 5th/18 11/4f[/color:8ub45u4d]
Art Connoisseur £60@8/1 won/18 8/1

Stakes £510 win £30[/color:8ub45u4d]

I may not be able to post on Wednesday until the afternoon..

[Artemis]

Wednesday 18 June

Royal Ascot
2.30 Paco Boy NR
Bob’s Surprise -going? 13th/16 50/1[/color:1c6ds9g3]
Dream Eater £60@8/1 generally available 3rd/16 7/1[/color:1c6ds9g3]

5.30 Jazz Jam £35 @16.5 Betfair 14th/16 14/1[/color:1c6ds9g3]
Shabiba £60@8/1 generally available 3rd/16 7/1[/color]

Loss on day £155[/color:1c6ds9g3]

[Artemis]

Thursday 19 June

A lot of qualifiers(as you might expect) in the big handicaps, so I’ve narrowed it down by eliminating those haorses that are badly drawn(high) on the straight course and also those that are exposed or may not be racing at their optimum distance.

Royal Ascot

3.05 Cape Amber £90@9/2, generally available 9th/9 9/2[/color:2yqrqpol]

4.20 Love Galore £15@40/1 William Hill 25/28 20/1[/color:2yqrqpol]
Commander Cave £35@14/1 generally available 16/28 12/1[/color:2yqrqpol]
Jaser £20@25/1 generally available 23/28 25/1[/color:2yqrqpol]

4.55 Unnefer£40@12/1 generally available 8th/15 15/2[/color:2yqrqpol]
Staying On £30@16/1 generally available 2nd/15 9/1[/color:2yqrqpol]

5.30 Colony £70@7/1 general won/16 11/2f[/color:2yqrqpol]
Trenchtown £25@20/1 general 6th/16 12/1

Profit on day £165

Totals to date
Bets 82
Winners 9
Stakes £7,165
Loss £1.665[/color:2yqrqpol]

[Artemis]

Friday 20 June

Royal Ascot

2.30 Cuis Ghaire -too short- 5/4 won 8/11f[/color:39c251nk]

3.05 All The Aces £80@6/1 Blue Square 4th/9 13/2[/color:39c251nk]

3.45 Modern Look £60@17/2 William Hill 10th/11 7/1[/color:39c251nk]

4.20 Soapy Danger – distance? NR[/color:39c251nk]
Under The Rainbow £15@33/1 Ladbrokes 10th/10 14/1[/color:39c251nk]

4.55 Patkai -too short- 13/8 Won/12 6/4f[/color:39c251nk]
Captain Webb £70@7/1 Betfred 9th/12 9/2[/color:39c251nk]

5.30 Border Music £20 @26 Betfair 4th/28 16/1[/color:39c251nk]
Docofthebay – had hard race here two days ago 13/28 5/1jf[/color:39c251nk]
Binanti £30@17 Betfair 21/28 14/1[/color:39c251nk]
Captain Jackspara £10@50/1 Bet365 16/28 25/1[/color:39c251nk]

Goodwood

8.30 Shela House minimum odds 9/2 £100@5/1 4th/8 7/2[/color:39c251nk]

Newmarket

8.10 Masai Moon £25@23 Betfair Won/12 14/1[/color:39c251nk]

Redcar

4.10 High Curragh £100@5/1 Skybet 7th/8 9/2

Profit on day £23[/color:39c251nk]

[Artemis]

Saturday 21 June

Win or lose, today is the last day of posting these Topspeed based selections. I will be reviewing the results over the next few days.

Royal Ascot

3.45 Marchand D’or £80@ 6/1 Coral 6/17 9/2[/color:21gyhjws]
Sakhee’s Secret £110@9/2 general 17/17 5/1[/color:21gyhjws]
War Artist £40 @12/1 Tote 2/17 8/1[/color:21gyhjws]
Assertive £10@50 Betfair 14/17 25/1[/color:21gyhjws]

5.00 King Charles £10@55 Betfair 3/19 18/1[/color:21gyhjws]
Proponent £50@10/1 Tote 6/19 8/1[/color:21gyhjws]

Ayr

3.10 Manzila £125@4/1 Coral 5/9 7/2[/color:21gyhjws]
Morinqua – disappointing last two runs 8/9 12/1[/color:21gyhjws]

Haydock

8.15 Blue Spinnaker – needs forecast rain 5/10 20/1[/color:21gyhjws]
Goodbye Mr Bond £110@9/2 Skybet 2/10 11/2[/color:21gyhjws]
Goodbye £125@4/1 Skybet 4/10 7/1[/color:21gyhjws]

Redcar

3.00 First Buddy minimum odds 5/2 5/5 3/1 £165@3/1

Loss on day £925

Final Totals since start of turf season:

Bets 103
Winners 10
Stakes £8,600
Loss £2,567 (-30% on stakes)

At SP
£1 level stake
Stakes £103 Loss £30.09 (-29.2%)

REVIEW

Starting with a positive, most of the selections have been backed at better odds than were available at SP.I had thought previously that these ‘speed horses’ were usually overbet at SP, so I would have expected a much better return on stakes from taking an early price than I actually achieved.
It’s only a relatively small sample, so I cannot draw any conclusions. I did miss quite a few winners by refusing to bet at very short odds, although I don’t think that made much difference, being balanced by the losses that would have occurred when the shorter priced horses were beaten.

The obvious negative is the 30% loss on stakes that has resulted from betting on horses with strong recent form as indicated by the Topspeed ratings. I would like to think this is just a blip, but last season was also quite moderate for followers of these ratings. They were an integral part of the algorithm I used last season, along with the RPRs(Rating Post Ratings). I see the RPRs are about 10per cent down on all selections this year, according to stats in the RP.

I don’t think there is much wrong with the methodology behind the RPR and Topspeed ratings, so the losses must be down to either the horses being overbet or my own particular way of applying the ratings to the assessment of form. The ‘lists’ have produced plenty of winners of good races, but I have been unable to turn the information into a profitable selection process. In fact, a pin-sticker would probably have done better.
I find it hard to take that a method based on solid recent form has performed so poorly, but I suppose that’s racing.

It is a long road I’ve trodden to get to a point where I am no better at selecting likely winners than someone with a pin.[/color:21gyhjws]

[ReasonoverFaith]

Just a quick query for those of you who take an interest in speed figures.

At Haydock on Saturday the going was initially described as ‘good (good-soft in places) for race 1; then Soft for all races after race 1.

Obviously it’s impossible to tell the going from tv pictures; but there were some very strange times recorded in a number of races.

The first three races, all over 12F:

The first, a handicap won in a time a tenth of a second faster than the following Group 2. Now, okay, the ground was supposedly quicker for the first race so I’ve no problem with that. But we come to the Old Newton Cup and the wnner records a time nearly a second quicker than the first race. Obviously Cumani’s horse is considered Pattern class but did this horse really record this time on soft ground?

However, the more surprising time was the one recorded by the winner of the Class 5 handicap over 5F. On soft ground, a class 5 handicapper (though possibly improving) recorded a time less than a second outside standard?

Hmmmmmmm, I’m not convinced about some of this. I’m not certain the ground description is accurate (the going stick reading certainly doesn’t lead us to conclude the ground was soft) and/or the distances described. Or perhaps it’s another example of rails being moved or part of the course being selectively watered.

Anyway, I’m interested in the views of those who compile their own speed figures.

Thanks.

[Artemis]

I don’t compile my own speed figures, prefering to rely on Topspeed, but Haydock on Saturday illustrates the difficulties faced by those, like yourself, who try to make sense of a set of race times.

There had been some rain and the rails were moved, adding 21yds to the round course which usually rides softer than the straight course. You then have to factor in drying conditions, deteriorating ground caused by churning, and variations in pace due to jockey’s riding tactics.

The Topspeed(Dave Edwards) verdict seems to be that the ground was faster on the straight course, the Lancashire Oaks was run at a steady pace and the 6f conditions race was not up to standard – it was also a rough race.

The time-based ground was no worse than Good to Soft(round course) and Good(straight course).

Once again, the official going – the one that appears in the form book for evermore – will be incorrect. The times prove it. It’s a nonsense and it’s time it was changed.

[Author]

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