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A few noteworthy performances from last week:
Tuesday 22 April
Bath gd-sft
The Snatches,91, is back to his best.Wednesday 23 April
The transferred Epsom card(at Nottingham) provided some decent races, but no speed ratings were published in the RP. As pointed out by Scallywag, there are two courses that are used and presumably there were no standard times for the course and distances used today.
Friday 25 April
Sandown Good
Corrybrough, 90, was a comfortable winner of the 5f handicap, but talk of listed and group races for him would be premature on what he has shown so far. Undoubtedly has potential, but has something to prove after his rating goes up 5 or 6 lbs for this win.
The 10f handicap could turn out to be a race full of future winners. Colony,89,came from behind to win nicely and could go on and win a decent handicap in the next month or so.
Saturday 26 April
Sandown Good
The 8f Group 2 time was nothing special.
The 10f classic trial looked overrated by Topspeed with several horses producing lifetime best figures. This scenario is unlikely, but for the time being I’ll take them at face value until the form is tested later on.
Centennial, 106, is progressive and now goes to York, where he should give a decent account, although he needs to find abit to win.
Whistledownwind, 105, has the Leger as his long term target. He’s improving and is one to keep an eye on.
Top Lock, 99, may have blown his handicap mark here – if he was ever intended to go that way. He’s only rated on 80 coming into this race, but will now go up at least 10lbs.
The 8f handicap might also be too highly rated with Jamboretta, 96, producing a lifetime best. Perhaps more significantly, Ace Of Hearts, who is a veteran, doing the same, recording 90. Dubious.Saturday 26 April
Haydock gd-sft
The 6f 3yo handicap was won in impressive fashion by
Marvellous Value, 90. Even with a hike in his
handicap rating, he can follow up, perhaps in a slightly
better grade.
First Buddy, 93, also showed improved form and
should be able to follow up.
Monday 28 April
Yarmouth Gd-firm
The 6f Class 2 Handicap was a decent race and looks
like solid form. Royal Rock, 100, was thought to be
unsuited by the drying ground, but won with a bit to
spare. Stays 7f and acts on any going, so shouldn’t be
difficult to find another good handicap.
The updated list of horses to follow:
Art Connoisseur 2yo
Blue Spinnaker
Blythe Knight
Bob’s Surprise
Bonnie Charlie 2yo
Bougereau
Bronze Cannon
Capable Guest
Centennial
Cobo Bay
Colony
Creachadoir
Doctor Fremantle
Don’t Panic
Ezdiyad
Finsceal Beo
First Buddy
Fishforcompliments
Flying Clarets
Generous Thought
Gower Song
Huzzah
Infallible
Jaser
Markab
Marvellous Value
Medicinal Path
Mia’s Boy
Mourilyan
Moyenne Corniche
Northern Fling
Paco Boy
Royal Rock
The Snatches
Top Lock
Unneffer
WhistledownwindI see that Topspeed has revised figures from the Sandown Saturday card and now has Centennial on a higher figure of 110. My rating is 100, not in itself, anywhere near good enough to warrant interest for Epsom. 2 of my horses to follow this year, based on the analysis of last season’s figures ran in this race – Whistledownwind, on an offical mark of 88 before this but that’s well and truly blown now & Mut’Ab, a ready-made winner of a middle-distance maiden, if he wasn’t trained by Clive Brittain!
Jamboretta put up a credit-worthy performance in the closing race – 98 against RPR of 100. She’s improving but that won’t escape the handicapper’s attention.
Two horses from the list run today run today.
Don’t Panic goes in the 3.20 Ascot over 8f. The going is forecast to be gd-firm whereas both his qualifying runs have been with more give than today.
He does have form on firmer ground and is more attractively priced than last time. About 9/2 best this morning.The Snatcher is worth a look in the 5.05, 8f. He won a fair handicap at Bath last week in a good time and has an excellent chance of following up. Different track, different going, better class are all worries, but the odds are tempting.Should be around 8/1, maybe better.
Don’t Panic 2nd/5 at 15/8 was outclassed by Cesare, who won hard held in a canter. The time was relatively slow as there was a muddling pace with Don’t Panic not settling,wanting to go faster. On this showing, Don’t Panic is going to be hard to place and is removed from the list.
The Snatcher 5th/15 at 9/2 came with every chance, but was no match for the well-backed Bankable and eventually weakened. He can find another race in a lower grade while still in form, so I’m happy to give him another chance.[/color:gbjp23ee]
Two horses from the list run today run today. Don’t Panic Don’t Panic.
The going should be closer to 6" deep at the shallow end and 11" near the finish. Unless Ascot "drains live a sieve"
It’s now(2.07pm) good to soft on the straight course and soft on the round course. It’s raining heavily again, but the drainage is supposed to be excellent.
The rain should be a positive for Don’t Panic and also the favourite, Cesare.
First Buddy(3.20 Musselburgh) is a runner today from the ‘list’, but he’s likely to be very short and I won’t be having a bet.
At the same meeting, I’ve noted Stevie Gee in the 4.50. He carried my money at Pontefract last time, but was caught near the line after looking likely to win. That was over a stiff 6f. He could be better suited by this easy 7f and would be of interest at 5/2 or better.
As expected, First Buddy won very easily at long odds on. Stevie Gee disappointed this time, reportedly running a lifeless race after being well in contention. The morning price was around 7/4 and I never looked again, so I saved myself a few quid because I would have backed it at 5/2. Maybe my luck is changing.[/color:5g5vuykh]
Artemis,
Just taken a look at my figures for the Bath meeting on 22 April & the Snatcher comes out at 82 – 9lbs lower than the Topspeed figure.
Thanks Scallywag,
I’m still looking through this week’s racing and will leave the summary until after the Guineas meeting has been rated, probably about Tuesday. So far this week, I’ve noted Marvellous Value, First Buddy(runs today), Royal Rock, Morinqua and Sweet Afton.
Wednesday’s Ascot card must have been difficult to rate because of the changing ground – it hasn’t appeared yet.
You may have a point about The Snatcher, but I thought he ran ok. When there is a disagreement on particular ratings, I suppose only time will tell, if you’ll excuse the pun.
There have been quite a few unusually high figures so far this season with older handicappers running lifetime best figures(Ace Of Hearts). Certainly possible, but unlikely, I would have thought.
Haven’t had chance to take a look yet but supsect that I won’t be rating Ascot’s Wednesday card.
Saturday 3 May
2,000 gns. Raven’s Pass has the best speed rating for this season and should go very close, particularly if the ground continues to dry out.
New Approach has the clear beating of him on last season’s form and is the obvious favourite. Probably no bet for me here.Henrythenavigator showed improved form to just hold off New Approach who ran a cracking race trying to lead all the way. I’m a fan of Jimmy Fortune, but he seemed to get caught too far back today on Raven’s Pass.He picked up when asked but had too much ground to make up and flattened out to finish 4th. [/color:363z8fxj]
The list provides only one runner today, Capable Guest, who goes in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. I would back this one if it were not for the prescence of Extraterrestial in the race. Somehow, I seem to have overlooked this horse when looking at decent speed performances. He ran very well behind Transcend at this course a few weeks ago and that decent speed performance stands out here. About 7/2 would be acceptable. Capable Guest is not particularly well handicapped and is an infrequent winner, although he is still good enough, on this season’s form, to give one more chance to. (Small bet at around 14/1).
Extraterrestial(4/1) managed to win in a race that was run in a relatively slow time. Capable Guest(8/1) ran into third but never looked liked getting anywhere near the front. The winner will go up again and might find life difficult in handicaps. Capable Guest looks one paced and is now removed from the list.[/color:363z8fxj]
It’s a good day for seeing how various form lines work out. There are a few horses running which have finished behind horses noted for the list.
2.10 Newmarket. Prime Exhibit caught the eye of many race readers behind Bronze Cannon. 4th 7/2f[/color:363z8fxj]
5.10 Ramona Chase was not beaten far behind Huzzah and Generous Thought and could run well at a decent price. 2nd 10/1[/color:363z8fxj]
Three ‘list’ horses go today, plus one that was mentioned favourably but not listed.
All are at Newmarket.
2.05 Fishforcompliments showed his well-being with a good performance on softer ground and shorter trip at Newcastle. A big price at 22/1.
Humble Opinion should give a pointer to the form of the race won by Jamboretta, which I thought might have been overrated. That race followed a very long lay off. He could also go very well at a decent price. Just a watching brief on this one.Fishforcompliments was well beaten after reportedly running too freely and perhaps not staying the trip. I’ll keep him on the list for the time being.[/color:1mis8feh]
2.40 Gower Song might not be good enough here, although I expect her to run a decent race with the advantage of race fitness. It was probably too soft for her at Newbury last time and she will benefit from the better ground today. 20/1
Ran a fair race, but outclassed. Will be very difficult to find a race for her, so I’m leaving her alone for the time being.[/color:1mis8feh]
3.20 1,000gns. Infallible and Royal Confidence have the best speed ratings for the current season, but their figures would not be good enough in an average year. Infallible won the Nell Gwyn Stakes very easily and can improve sufficiently to win today. About 4/1.
Infallible didn’t quite get home in this class, but is worth bearing in mind for Ascot[/color:1mis8feh]
Royal Confidence has stamina doubts and may be short of the class required for this mile classic.
Royal Confidence wasn’t beaten very far and will have to look beyond handicaps in the future.[/color:1mis8feh]3.55 I’ve had reservations in the past about Zidane’s ability in Group sprints, feeling that he just lacked that extra bit of class. However, his latest triumph in the Abernant Stakes was recorded in a relatively fast time, certainly good enough to go very close today. First race over 5f, but it shouldn’t be a problem. No bet.
Zidane wasn’t placed and really needs 6f to show his best.[/color:1mis8feh]
Here is my review of speed ratings(Topspeed) for the last seven days:
Saturday 26 April
Haydock gd-sft
The 6f 3yo handicap was won in impressive fashion by
Marvellous Value, 90. Even with a hike in his
handicap rating, he can follow up, perhaps in a slightly
better grade.
First Buddy, 93, also showed improved form and
should be able to follow up.
Monday 28 April
Yarmouth Gd-firm
The 6f Class 2 Handicap was a decent race and looks
like solid form. Royal Rock, 100, was thought to be
unsuited by the drying ground, but won with a bit to
spare. Stays 7f and acts on any going, so shouldn’t be
difficult to find another good handicap.
Tuesday 29 April
Bath Soft
The 5f listed race for mares and fillies highlighted a
couple of potential handicap winners. Morinqua, 107,
will go up from 94 for winning this, but she would be
very interesting in any competitive 5f handicaps to
come.
Sweet Afton, 94, is eligible for lower grade handicaps
and would be worth a look off her future mark in the
mid 80’s.
Wednesday April 30
Ascot soft
The 6f Listed race looked solid form. Sir Gerry, 112,
could be a major force in sprinting over the season,
especially when he gets this ground. He doesn’t seem
to stay beyond this trip in top grade.
The 8f handicap might also produce winners in the
near future. Bankable,100, is evidently well regarded
and won very comfortably in the end. Aimed at Ascot,
he will need some juice in the ground to run there and
may need to improve again to get the handicap mark
required. Tastahil, 90, looks well handicapped and is
worth noting. Habshan, 91, did very well for a horse
that needs it firmer than this, and The Snatcher, 86, is
worth one more chance.
Friday 2 May
Cork Good
Ice Queen, 92, showed greatly improved form here
and is one to note.
Musselburgh Gd-sft
First Buddy, 100, is still ahead of the handicapper and
ran away from the modest opposition here. He will go
up by 10 or 12lbs for his two recent wins, but further
successes lie ahead.
Saturday 3 May
Goodwood
6f sft. Mujood,92, is better giving weight to inferior
rivals and can follow up provided he isn’t upped in
class.
Enforce, 103, who comfortably won the 8f listed race(soft) is in foal. She should run very well again
wherever her astute trainer decides to send her.
Newmarket Good
The 3yo 8f handicap should work out well. Duntulm,
95, Flawed Genius,98, and Perks,95, are all
progressive and well handicapped. Duntulm is
probably a fair bit better than this because he was
virtually left at the start.
The 2,000 gns was well up to standard and the first
two are(as you would expect) top class colts.
The 6f sprint handicap was solid form and many of
those in the shake up will find races in the near
future, although nothing seems particularly well
handicapped or progressive .
Doctor Faustus, 92, won quite easily and should be
able to win again despite an inevitable rise in his
rating.
Sunday 4 May
Newmarket Gd-sft, officially Gd-fm??
In the 9f handicap, Proponent, 101, Oceana Gold, 93,
and King Charles all ran to form above their official
ratings. Proponent is said to need some juice in the
ground, so might not get that ground again for his
chosen races. King Charles probably needs 10f.
They finished in a heap in the 1,000gns but the winner, Natagora, 106, deserves credit for making nearly all the running and repelling quite a few challenges. Nahoodh seemed rather unlucky, although this form might not work out very well considering the first eight home were separated by only 3 lengths. The time was respectable.
There was a lot to like about the performance of the 3yo Captain Gerard against his elders in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes. A most game performance from an improving colt who can go a long way this season, although he doesn’t want it too fast. Matsunosuke, 107, has any handicap at his mercy judged on this showing, but these things rarely work out like that.
I’m busy upgrading my list of horses to follow.
The revised list of horses to take an interest in, or have a look at, in the near future. I won’t say follow because that implies backing horses blindly, which I would never do. It all depends on the race, the going and most importantly, the price. A question mark(?) denotes that an independent speed rating compiler, usually Scallywag, has awarded a significantly lower rating.
Art Connoisseur 2yo
Bankable ?
Blue Spinnaker
Blythe Knight
Bob’s Surprise
Bonnie Charlie 2yo ?
Bougereau
Bronze Cannon
Captain Gerard
Centennial
Cobo Bay
Colony
Creachadoir
Doctor Faustus
Doctor Fremantle
Duntulm
Enforce
Ezdiyad
Finsceal Beo
First Buddy
Fishforcompliments
Flawed Genius
Flying Clarets
Generous Thought
Habshan
Huzzah
Ice Queen
Infallible
Jaser
King Charles
Markab
Marvellous Value
Matsunosuke
Medicinal Path
Mia’s Boy
Morinqua ?
Mourilyan
Moyenne Corniche
Mujood
Northern Fling
Oceana Gold
Paco Boy
Perks
Proponent
Royal Rock
Sir Gerry ?
Sweet Afton
Tastahil
The Snatcher
Top Lock
Unneffer
WhistledownwindArtemis,
Henrythenavigator 113, Natagora 96 on my figures. Very disappointing, the latter some 17lbs below her RPR.
The races won by Proponent, Captain Gerrard & Slugger O’Toole returned the best comparitive ratings – although Captain Gerrard’s performance suggests that improvement of a few pounds more will be required to mix it with the best sprinters.
Not a bad weekend for me, the highlight being Duntulm, who ran well at Bath in a maiden run at a sound pace, & Fullandby – given a positive mention earlier in this thread. I think the 2YO that finished 2nd at HQ on Sunday already needs 6F, though.
Hi Artemis
Re First Buddy
According to my Class Ratings First Buddy has been gradually dropping in class with each race. (The Ratings are not speed based)
Race Class
82
78
75Rating
160.12
157.00
160.00Good Luck
Monster
Wednesday May 7th
Matsunosuke reappears quickly in the 5f sprint handicap at Chester today.
He is extremely well handicapped if you take his last run at face value, even though these things don’t always work out.The draw(14/15) is off-putting, but he needs dropping in anyway and Kerrin McEvoy should give him a good ride.(10.5 Betfair this morning). I fear Rebel Duke, who ran a good time figure at Musselburgh last month, although this grade might be too high for him.
Point taken about the draw, Monster. Matsunosuke never showed at all and finished last at 8/1. [/color:2ve9giqh]
The Chester Cup has no runners with good recent speed figures comparable to their RPRs. I won’t be betting on the race, although I think Greenwich Meantime is almost bound to give a good account.He didn’t.[/color:2ve9giqh]
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