Speed Ratings

[Artemis]

I’ve always thought it would be very useful and informative to have a thread on the forum that focussed on speed ratings on an ongoing basis.

For my part, as I use Topspeed quite extensively, I would be happy to post up any notable performances as the flat racing season unfolds.

The results and ratings are usually available a day or so after the race.

If anyone else wants to contribute, or discuss the mechanics of how the ratings are compiled, please feel free. The more, the merrier.

Doncaster March 22

My first observation is that the Spring Mile won by Don’t Panic(106) was a much stronger performance than Smokey Oakey(80) in the Lincoln. On this evidence, Don’t Panic is a very smart performer.

There was nothing else worthy of note at the meeting. Aahayson(96) ran right up to his best, but he had the run of the race and might not be so lucky next time he tries his luck in this grade. His handicap mark looks blown.

[goodlife]

Good idea, Artemis. I’ll certainly be contributing as the season unfolds

[goodlife]

Have to endorse your opinion about Don’t Panic. The time of the race was nearly a second faster than the Lincoln and he was carrying 9.8 – 13lb more than Smokey Oakey. Given the ability of his handler he is one to follow.

[Artemis]

Monday 24 March and Tuesday 25 March.

Only one performance of any note – Flying Clarets(90) in the 10f handicap at Pontefract. This equalled her best performances timewise, both achieved from the front at York. She handles good and soft ground and is very genuine. She will probably be put up a few pounds, but her willing attitude will win her a few more races this season if she isn’t too highly tried.

[Monster]

It was interesting that both the Spring Mile Winner and Lincloln winner came from the same side. Don’t Panic has been hiked up from an OR of 92 to 104 Ouch!

Looking at the far side in the Lincoln Escape Route ran well on his return to turf judged against Blythe Knight who has been raised to 112 after the race. Escape Route has dropped to 93 from 95. He is beautifully bred with a nice blend of speed and stamina and has won a 9f race last season on Gd/frm off 91. (Doncaster was Good/Soft)

Escape Route is only lightly raced for a 4 yr old and his shrewd trainer will certainly find a nice race for this one.

Good Luck

Monster

[Artemis]

Thanks for input, Monster.

I usually prefer the stands side at Doncaster, but last week the advantage was probably only a few pounds.

Escape Route has had four races already this year(three in Dubai), so may not have anything in hand even if dropped a few pounds. Does seem to prefer better ground, though and might be a ‘Spring’ horse. I’ll keep an eye on him.

Don’t Panic worth a 12lbs rise? Might scupper his chances in handicaps.

[Monster]

Hi Artemist

The Official Ratings are published at the following link each Tuesday and come into effect the folowing Saturday. If you find a horse who posts a big speed figure on a Sunday, he will have nearly 2 weeks before his new OR comes into effect.

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/insid … d_jump.pdf

Another useful link is Why They ran Badly (Check out the excuses)

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/insid … nbadly.asp

Ever wonder why a horse was withdrawn on the day of the race
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/gorac … efault.asp

Watch carefull those who are withdrawn because of the going as the Trainer may have this one ready to fire and if he has multiple entries.

Its useful to keep your own list of Trainers Entries an example of this is below.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … _YaSiGB1Qw

Good Luck

Monster

[goodlife]

Hi Monster,
Thanks for all these really useful links which you are posting.Can I ask if you know where it is possible to see when a horse was gelded. I am not sure when Don’t Panic was cut. He is now at that point where he is bordering on Listed/Group class so it will be interesting to see how he is placed .

[doublethetrouble]

your input is excellent .hope we dont here the last of you.yet! and where have you been all this time.could have done with you sooner.thanks again monster.(trouble)

[Artemis]

I echo that, Doublethetrouble. Monster is like a breath of fresh air in this usually quiet part of the forum. I’ll have to find more time to look carefully through these useful links.

[Matron]

Artemis,

"Quiet part of the forum" – second, most visited part of the TRF and also the sanest!

Regards- Matron

[Sean Rua]

Yes and the most interesting and useful, imo,

though "Plays and Lays" is good too!

[carlisle]

Hi Artemis

i will try to flag up some of my horses of note from my Solidus Speed Rating figures………

byefrom
carlisle

[Artemis]

Sorry, Matron. I really meant quiet in terms of contributions. We might have spectators who look on in puzzlement at our ruminations.

[Sean Rua]

As long as we can’t hear the ruminations, it’s not bad being a spectator here, Artemis!

More seriously, I’m glad you feel Topspeed is reasonable; so many seem to think it’s no good.
Sometimes, i wish i had more faith in it, for it does throw up some decent-priced winners. Just looking at a page of my scribble, I see I noted

Doubtful Sound
Princess Cocoa
Dancing Alibi
Kayflaa
Monkey Glas

in a Wolver card. These were from my viewing of the RP online TS pop-up.

Results were very good for TS ( or my interpretation of it): 2 winners and 3 seconds.
However, my punting was nowhere near as good: I backed only one of the winners and one of the seconds .
The fault was all mine. The TS ratings were fine, imo.

[Monster]

The Racing Post have an analysis feature which is worth checking out.

I have posted the Top Speed Analysis by Race Type and the RP Ratings

RP Ratings do very Well in Claiming Races and in 3yr Old Maidens an amazing 43% Strike rate

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … 1rgBcq1xQA

Good Luck

Monster

[Artemis]

Monster,

Thanks (again!) for the very useful figures for the RP ratings.

They do confirm that following ratings blindly can lead only to the poor house. 3yo maiden races have been a good source of profit for form students for many years, especially if you can avoid those horses that keep reaching a place, but never seem to put their heads in front. May to August are the best months, before the ground starts changing from day to day.

Sean,

I think Topspeed has to be used as only a part of form study alongside the hard graft of watching races, reading the form and reports, taking account of class, going, track, jockeyship, draw and so on. The speed ratings can help to identify truly run races and false ones, and also highlight performances that are worth a closer look. I’m sure you know this and will not fall into the lazy and unprofitable option of backing the top-rated.

[Author]

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