Speed Handicapping

[Gerald]

I read this a few months ago, and have been wondering what faith people have in their speed ratings, particularly Daily Variants. I suppose it is still worth doing them, because even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Also, this article refers to Dirt tracks, but I’m sure some of the variation applies to All-Weather surfaces as well.

http://www.thorograph.com/archive/getti … pt%20I.htm

Are Racehorses Getting Faster- Part One — 12 November 2003 — Jerry Brown

I’ll be going into the question of the improvement of the horses themselves in another post, but one of the obvious issues becomes whether the pure times of race can be used as a measuring device. With that in mind, I just had another conversation with NYRA track superintendent Jerry Porcelli, and I want to get this stuff out there while it is still fresh in my head. The implications are pretty obvious.

1- When Secretariat was running, the cushion at NYRA tracks was between 2 3/4 and 3 1/4 inch. It is now about 4 inches.

2– Terry Meyocks had a policy of keeping the track slow– he felt a slower track was a safer track. To this end Jerry is constantly monitoring track speed– on a day to day basis he keeps an eye on the times of races, and adjusts track speed by adding or subtracting dirt, changing the percentage of sand (which slows the track down), and controlling the amount of water, which speeds it up.

3– He also monitors the track (and speed) RACE TO RACE, DAILY. He has an office on the roof at Aqueduct, and adjusts the amount of water being added between races by noting the times of the races, the color of the track (!), and how much dirt is on the horses when they come back from the races.

4– There was a day Jerry was out sick, and miscommunication resulted in less cushion being put down than he wanted. Najran ran the 1:32 mile that day.

5– He was out at SA for the Breeder’s Cup a couple of weeks ago. I mentioned I had the track getting faster after the first few races Thursday to Saturday, and he said he was not surprised– they dug up the track each day before the first race, then watered it and "rolled" it between races, meaning the track would have to "tighten up" as the day went on.

Jerry also confirmed a statement he made in an earlier conversation with me that the tracks today have a higher percentage of sand in them than they used to– the theory being to make them slower and therefore safer (he isn’t sure it does make them safer, by the way), and more importantly, so that they dry faster. This means they get faster with moisture (think of the beach, and how the ground is firmer near the water), but also means that in general they are slower when dry (fast tracks) than the higher clay content tracks that preceded them. Jerry said the higher sand track has been in effect since at least 1995, but he would check the logs to see if he could find out exactly when it started.

Conclusions:

1- This is a fascinating subject that is very sophisticated, yet one even serious handicappers know virtually nothing about. Charlie Moran did an interview with Porcelli that ran in the Saratoga Special this Summer and which we posted here, but someone should really do a very extensive article on this. Charlie, you listening?

2– Directly to the subject at hand– you can’t use raw times to compare horses from different generations, any more than you can use raw times to compare horses who are running at different tracks.

3– Ahem. While none of this PROVES that tracks change speed day to day or race to race, it proves conclusively that ASSUMPTIONS that tracks stay at the same speed race to race, let alone day to day, are pure fantasy[/color:256z1lby]. Using those assumptions to build a figure data base is dogmatic nonsense.

[mr forecast]

wow

try not to complicate a complicated matter any further

it highlights the main problem which is its to much for one person

easier day today as only three courses so can do more home work

have two horses which are trainer based but looking at the odds wouldnt bother now….siyaad and sunraider(redcar + windsor)

liecster has a forecast every day i have followed this
windsor has a high place rate for speedsters

[mr forecast]

trying to find a winner over 5/1 was impossible today

i was drawn to bollin dolly as it had a good record on course…..it won at 32/1 on betfair……….

apart from that all winners were very low……….but alot easier today

i found after reading the speed stats on racing post i then checked all the other boxes….or….post data…..verdict…..paddock watch
this made an excellent improvement on my selections

leicester had one forcast using top two speedsters and so did windsor

i like the question put forward about the ground,i have noticed one thing when doing my betting and thats the first three or the last three produce the winners so its evident that the horses racing makes the ground change

i always wait til the first race has run and check the times which i feel gives you a good indication on the surface…………cant remeber what track but last week it was good,good to soft and soft in places,i gave up at this point

[Anonymous]

2.15 Southwell Favours Brave (89) 16-1 looks a good EW bet if it can reproduce its LTO Polytrack form on the Fibresand. The furlong shorter should assist in coping with the more testing surface.

3.15 Southwell My top rated Crimson Mitre (91) 12-1 lively EW chance and only C&D in the race.

3.45 Southwell Swiss Art (92) a Southwell specialist marginally top rated but would take 10-1 EW if available. Rarely out of the frame here.

4.15 Southwell Luscivious (95) is likely to go off to short to interest me.

4.45 Southwell My top rated First Blade seems to have a new lease of life with blinkers but at the current price of 5-1 to short for me.

[mr forecast]

southwll
ottoman empire–royal keva
mr smithson–duster
lochiel–jadlee–ella
swiss art–iron out
lusvious–figaro flyer
not doing the last
wolv
dahakaa–west lake star
nawamees–new england
dolphin rock–silver symphony
commando scott–obe royal——–kyleene??
silca medyden–south africa
king of cannacht–rowan lodge
swords–rare coincidence

now again is not a competition rather sharing selections in order to get a wider picture

[Gerald]

I’m not betting , apart from the 2yo races, but I’ll follow both your selections on Timeform radio. It will be a little bit more interesting having particular horses to follow, rather than just generally listening!

[mr forecast]

i stopped listening to timeform as they sometimes put me off my selections

i was on a horse called imbongi

it was about 14/1 and i had backed it alot

after listening to time form radio they totaly put me off this horse so i halfed my bet………………………..it won

they said it had no chance and everyone should lay there bank on it

[mr forecast]

its taken a toll on me all this pc work so i rested today

the speed reults were not to bad

lucky mellor pl
al gillani pl
pha mia blue won
autumn blades pl
dawn at sea won
berkley court won
perfect chi won
biniou won
racoon won
birkside won
dramatic solo pl

and two forecasts but nothing major

parents have just brought a lazer engraving machine so building web site for them so will be busy for a while done me a loverly picture of a horses crossing the line on a mirror looks wicked

[mr forecast]

only done evening races as keep lossing in the day,put bets on early so no watching today

hamilton
r1–hettie hubble pl
r2–bluie won 2/1
r3–just lille pl…..medici pearl…won 6/1
r4–bold india..pl
r5–call of duty pl
r6 the bear–won 12/1

thats the placepot

sandown
bridge valley–won–key art pl 4/1
royal intruder–won 9/1
al ghazal..won 3/1
sir isaac–won–hail promonard–pl 4/1
night lilly..lost
ermlyn lodge–won 9/1

5/6 races

24 horses —11 lost—–8 won—5 placed only
4 reverse forecasts

just wins produced 49 points minus 22 points in lost bets……27 points plus placed bets that showed little profit
top two ts rated

[mr forecast]

2:30 Sand – Rocket Rob WIN @ 3
i would bet in play with this one as last time came from the back to win and was a very ggod trade

3:05 Sand – Primaeval WIN @ 2.5
(The main danger here is ‘Ermine and Velvet’ who is a speed rated so not sure between the two

all other horses will be the top rated

after yesterdays sandown was very impressive but see how the first race pans out

i would class sailsbury as the worst track for speed raters with only one out of 12 normaly win the place rate is around 40%

were sandown has a 40% win rate and an excellent place rate

[Anonymous]

For those interested here is Nick Mordins reply to my question regarding figs for beaten horses.

Shouldn’t the lengths beaten by formula be relative to the time the race was run opposed to the distance of the race?

For some reason beyond my comprehension there appears to be an unwritten rule that dictates we conform to the lbs per length applied by the official handicapper or a closely linked permutation.

What I feel most uncomfortable about with this formula is the results appear to be upside down. e.g. the penalty applied to a horse beaten 1 length in a sprint is greater than the penalty applied to the horse beaten 1 length in a middle distance race but from a speed perspective the horse in the sprint is obviously travelling faster than the middle distance horse.

Dear Mark,

You are of course right. But actually in Britain this is exactly what happens nowadays because lengths are now measured by time rather than distance. The photo finish drum spins at a set speed, so it’s easy to tell exactly how far behind the winner a horse finished. On the flat a length is now counted as a fifth of a second (as measured off on the photo finish drum). Over jumps 0.25 of a second is used. What this means is that in a mile race run in 1m 40 a length is longer than it is in a mile race run in 1m 35.

Beaten lengths are a vexing issue though. I am still wrestling with how to cope with the massive increase in beaten lengths caused by a very slow surface compared to a very fast one. For example times on Germany’s sand track at Neuss are only about 10% slower than they are on Lingfield’s Polytrack. But the average beaten lengths are three times as much.
The trouble is if you adjust your speed ratings to take account of this you can end up giving a bigger speed rating to a horse that gets beat ten lengths in a mile race run in 1.40 (and therefore runs around 1m 42) than you do to a horse that won another mile race on the same card in 1m 41.

I plan on doing some research on this. I once took part in a discussion with a couple of Aussie handicappers and they called this phenomena ‘drag’ but I can’t find any reference to this on the internet. However it’s clearly real. For example, the only way I could make sense of the beaten lengths on Irish 1000 Guineas day at the Curragh was to count them as double what they should have been. The going was really slow that day and seemed to massively amplify the beaten lengths. Perhaps it also amplifies the difference in times between races. I need to look at this to try and understand it. It’s not easy. It’s probably related to pace more than final time. Sectional times show that jockeys go off pretty much the same speed in the early stages whatever the going. So if it’s really slow and testing the horses tire more and the beaten lengths get amplified. That’s my best current theory.

Regards

Nick

Although Nick’s reply is less than conclusive after posting a length explanation of my theory to racing forums I am yet to find anyone who can argue their case for why they apply their variations on the example I posted. In fact I received several more variation along the same lines with a length in a 5f sprint given a numerical value of 2.5 at the lowest to a high of 4.2.

Paul Mostert Ph.D. of Equix Biomechanics found in extensive research that the approximate length of a mature thoroughbred is 9ft

1) There are 660ft in a furlong or 73.33 lengths (660 divided by 9)
In a 5 furlong race run in 60 seconds 1 length therefore equals 0.1636
60 seconds divided by 366.67 (number of lengths in 5f) = 0.1636

2) There are 660ft in a furlong or 73.33 lengths (660 divided by 9)
In a 1 mile race run in 1minute 40 seconds 1 length therefore equals 0.1705
100 seconds divided by 586.67 (number of lengths in 1 mile) = 0.1705

The above two examples are as close to fact as you can get! There is no personal interpretation or corruption. Purely based on time, IMO isn’t this what speed figures should be based upon?

Referring back to Nick’s reply it is interesting to note that even with his years of experience he is looking to adjust and improve his ratings and I am mindful of the fact that as I strive for perfection with my speed figures it is a labour of love which is never likely to reach a definitive conclusion.

[mr forecast]

i use the speed ratings page on racingpost now and am finding it easier to trace the ratings as it gives you winning position-speed rating-distance and ground all in one figure

i dont adjust my figures what so ever so ill leave your question and watch

i try to keep the figures the same so i can easly spot a horse which is running after a win but before the handicapper has got to it,all trainers use this legal loophole and i like to follow this trend

i think prescott is the best one on this,he is always doing it

[mr forecast]

ADJ
TS RPR HORSE/WGT LAST 6 RATINGS BEST TOPSPEED
LAST YR GOING DIST COURSE

55 76 Love And Devotion 9-0 — — — — — 55 55 55 55 —
50 71 Pin Cushion 9-0 — — — — — 50 50 50 50 —
25 39 Queen´s Grace 9-0 — — — — — 25 25 25 25 25

i stuck a quid on,then the odds started dropping so another quid,then again,and thought hey whats a quid so done another
i dont know why it happens and im still not confident enought to stick a whole point (tenner) on it but for some reason the course speed stat seems to be proving very powerfull tool i had two points on love and devotion after reading the figures

may be a fluke but its a fluke that keeps happening

[mr forecast]

2.20 2m5f110y Last 8 outings Best ratings
Handicap Chase
Horse Wgt OR future Ltst Dist Crs Cls4+Gf-Hd G Gs-Hv 6-11rn Base Master
Ours ………………..11-8 105 63 63 104 122 63 115 122 122 109 115
Burgess Hill………….11-5 102 114 — — 114 — — 114 114 105 114
Toulouse Express 10-12 95 99 — 108 106 103 108 106 106 92 108
Brave Jo …………….11-4 101 32 120 96 120 105 120 74 105 88 98
Dune Raider………….11-12 109 97 77 — 114 114 105 59 105 95 97
Winchester Red ……..11-10 107 92 — — — — 92 — — 88 92
Prophete De Guye……11-3 100 91 97 110 110 98 97 110 110 80 91
Orfeo Conti ……………11-11 108 6 6 — 112 110 104 112 110 44 47
Greengables ………….11-1 98 — 39 — — — — 39 — — —
Izzykeen ………………..10-10 93 — — — 95 88 95 — 88 — —[/size:2ts6obfj]

by looking at these figures who would you say has the best chance

ours….brave joe burgess hill or the low weight izzykeen

[tafflizgreg]

toulouse express for me each way good speed figures for course and going,or rating of 95 has won of 93 @ 14/1 good each way bet if f/c price is about right

[mr forecast]

i think that

ours has the best ratings

postmaster may be a threat and izzykeen has an excellent advantage with the weights

the ground being good to firm,

[Gerald]

I backed Izzykeen last time at Bangor.

Graysonscolumn was saying on Timeform Radio this afternoon that he ain’t (keen).

It all reinfornces that you can’t use speed ratings in isolation.

Well done with Queen’s Grace. I suppose that there is some kind of justification in backing the horse with the highest course rating, no matter how bad it is: the trainer has chosen to return to the course, and if he thought that the course didn’t suit the horse, he wouldn’t. However, we all know it can’t continue . . . well, except that I know that a lot of big-priced winners have previously run at the course, though I’m not sure that many of them are top-rated on course speed ratings.

Oh Actuary, I had another culinary disaster this evening. I was preparing a Serbian relish when an aubergine exploded with an almighty bang in the oven.

I know everyone has one word for me. Prick!

[Author]

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