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All-Weather Racing Returns to Southwell
After a long-anticipated wait, racing on the flat has returned to Southwell with their brand-spanking-new tapeta racing surface. It divided opinion when it was announced the fibresand would be making a retirement in favour of the new tapeta surface, but overall, the first meeting under the new conditions can be considered a success.
While one meeting is not enough to draw concrete conclusions, it certainly pointed towards how we might be able to expect the surface and course to play out over the coming weeks. It generally looked crucial to be in a forward position by three out and onto the final two. It was noticeable nothing much got involved in the home straight from racing off the pace and it appeared difficult to make up too much ground with two to run. Though, that is not to say you cannot win kept off the pace here, but when you make your headway and what position you get into by three out into the home straight has looked important on meeting one of the new surface. It will be interesting to see over the coming weeks how the surface behaves. It was standard to slow on this opening meeting and it appeared to ride that way and we will learn more about the course with more racing.
Race Review – Horses of Interest
There were plenty of interesting performances on this opening tapeta Southwell card, starting in the first at 16:00 with wide margin winner, Carausius. Having been held up in the early part of the race, he appreciated what looked a good enough tempo, and crucially Shoemark made his headway a bit from home making good ground from before four out widest of all, by three out he was in a good position to challenge in the best place to be. He went on strongly from two out once he led and finished his race well, clear with 100 to run and eased down in latter stages. He looks a type much better suited to the all-weather than turf going on his record, and open to improvement there looks more to come from him this winter.
The #betyourway At Betway Handicap five-furlong contest at 16:30 result could turn out to be a good race. Fernando Rah looked very smart in winning off a short break and appreciated the drop to the minimum five-furlongs showing bags of speed to win smartly. He gets home over six-furlongs but in recent runs has not given himself that chance by racing too keenly, and back to five-furlongs here he has looked a natural. Breaking well and racing in behind the pace, he settled much better and showed plenty of speed for this five furlong, travelling better than anything into the final two to challenge and once in front with one to run he has picked up impressively and won going away eased down with plenty in hand. His last three performances at five furlong now read, 1,2,1 and he looks a natural five-furlong type that should keep improving over this winter well suited to the all-weather.
In the same race, the second in Zarzyni should prove an interesting prospect next time he runs. He got bumped around leaving the gates and found himself racing well out the back, which in hindsight, proved an impossibility with the winner how it panned out. Racing in rear, he found himself going OK into the final two furlongs but had plenty to do with nothing behind him. He met some trouble inside the final two and one furlong stage when keeping on and then when clear again with a furlong to run he has finished his race strongly to run on for a never nearer second. He is lightly raced with David Barron who has a great ability to get the best out of this kind of horse and has especially been successful for these owners in recent times. He has some smart form to bring to the table for the all-weather and he looks a sprinter that will improve with racing this winter. He looks perfectly effective at five furlong but could well appreciate returning to the six-furlong distance next time out, though wherever he turns up he will be an interesting runner.
In the 17:00 Read Katie Walsh On Betway Insider Handicap, Beat The Breeze proved a resolute stayer stepped back up in distance to fourteen furlongs for his new trainer, Alice Haynes, and he should prove competitive again over his next few races. He has proved steadily progressive over his career, and since being upped to fourteen furlongs he has proved very useful at the distance. This was his first run back to fourteen furlongs in four runs having won at Wolverhampton on his last attempt at the distance for his old yard. He has a fair record at the distance reading 2,7,1,1, though his seventh is worth forgetting on soft ground on the turf. Though he raced in midfield through parts of the race, Kieran O’Neill got him into a good position at the right times, making headway before four out wide and by the time he was three out into the home turn he was well placed to challenge and inside the final two he has seen the race out strongly once in front and proved difficult to pass. He looks one to keep giving chances to over this longer distance given he sees it out so well, he may be worth chances over further in the future to go up to two miles. He is very versatile and open to where he goes next, he has won twice on the tapeta and three times on the polytrak winning at four different all-weather courses, and he should find opportunities.
The Winter Oaks Trial Fillies’ Handicap was the feature on the card, and it was an interesting race. It was won by the useful Viola for James Fanshawe and prolific Southwell jockey Daniel Muscutt. Like a lot of the winners on the day, she was well placed into the home straight and to two out just in behind runners, though it was not particularly run to suit her. They went steady through the contest to three out and it turned into a bit of a race from the home straight. But she showed a good change of gear late on to put the race to bed and prove too good and she should keep improving from this yard given her progressive profile. She will appreciate a return to a tad further in the future and for a better pace to run at and she can go on this winter and will end up a lot better rated by the end of the season.
Further back in the field, Lower Street looks one to persevere with running well out the handicap here. Held up out the back, given the lack of pace she was keen, and, in the end, it was not run to suit her and is worth marking up making some ground from rear. Going into the final two she had shaped well to that point but struggled to find a gear to challenge from two out where she would have been suited to a better gallop and coming with one strong staying on run. She closed the final stages well nearest at the finish but was never quite in it having not been suited to the race. She has been proving progressive since upped in distance on the all-weather and she still looks to have improvement in her and can be placed to win looking well treated.
Timeless Soul is not one to give up on yet with such an unexposed profile for a top yard, she still has potential. She had her chance and was well placed into the final two furlongs and did not prove good enough on the day, but she is entitled to come forward from that run off a break and ultimately she looks a questionable stayer around these distances and would be interesting if brought back to a maximum of ten furlongs where she has a smart piece of handicap turf form in the summer at Goodwood and if she can still build on that, there are races to be won with her.The 18:00 produced a big price winner in CianCiana, but it could be worth taking Summereyes from the race who was interesting on handicap debut. Drawn poorly in fourteen, she had to drop to rear early where it had not proved the best place to be on the card. She shaped well through the race from rear right down into the final two, but still quite some way back on the winner at the point she ended up with too much to do. She kept on well in the final furlong finishing better than most running on for third and gave the impression she could be well treated on a mark of just 50. She was handicapped on her form down in distance and this step up to eight furlongs from six looks to have been more like it, though she would be very interesting if upped in distance again to the ten furlongs given there is plenty enough stamina in her pedigree.
The 18:30 novice was an interesting event with newcomers filling the front five positions, and as with many of the races on the day it looked beneficial to be racing forward into the home straight. While the winner ranks with potential it was Government back in fifth that caught the eye. Anchored to rear on debut here in an unfavourable position on the day, he shaped through the rear encouragingly and should only come on for the run. Still well back two out, he had far too much to do to ever compete, but he made ground and kept on well in the final furlong going on to the line. He will certainly be suited by a step up in distance in the future and come on for a run, but a nicely bred type, he is a half-brother to international Grade 1 winner at a mile and a half, Wigmore Hall, as well as being a half-brother to useful black type and all-weather winner Ocean Road (stays twelve furlongs) and he should only improve for the run and tackling further. Hugo Palmer has been steady with newcomer two-year-olds this season with just three winners at 11.54% but for a run his runners are six from twenty at 30% to a profit, so this one can be expected to be much more competitive next time out.
Wineglass Bay is a horse that has been on our radar since his debut, and he took his chance well in the 19:00 proving the better of him and his market rival and he can progress. He probably raced on the wrong part of the track on his debut in what was a little bit of a messy race in how they finished at Salisbury on soft ground. But he stepped up on that well on his second start to be clear with a Godolphin winner at Kempton, and he did not need to improve to win here, and he just proved the best horse in the race. Always to the fore, he travelled smartly through out and deep into the race, going strongly still inside the final two, and when punched on to go for home he took it up and kept on well in front always with enough in hand over the second and well back to the rest it is a useful novice run at this stage. The ninth two-year-old winner for the yard this season, James Ferguson has struck at 21.43% this season with his juveniles and he has some good ammunition. He looks likely to be suited by further with time on pedigree with stamina in the dam’s side being a ten-furlong listed winner, but by New Bay is what makes him so interesting. New Bay is quickly becoming a high-quality stallion, and his progeny stepped up in distance, from between ten furlongs and twelve furlongs have a remarkable 37.31% strike rate, with twenty-five winners from sixty-seven runs at a +39.11 profit. So, he will be extremely interesting when tackling further in the future and could come into his own when tackling at least ten furlongs in the future and looks one to keep on side when going first time handicapping.
In the finale at 19:30 it is difficult not take the winner, Redzone, out of the race. In peak form going into it having bolted up on his previous start he has come forward again here and looks one to just keep running well while in this form. Interestingly, of the races on the day, he did best of any runner positionally given the advantage to have been forward here into the home turn. Racing in midfield, exiting the home turn he still had plenty to do, but he picked up well from the final two and closed his race strongly to hit the front in the latter stages and in the end won by a good margin. He is improving since taking to the cheekpieces and having found a liking for tapeta he is going forward well at present and brought back here or to Newcastle he should keep going well while in peak form.
Horses to follow
Carausius – Unexposed all-weather specialist, looks to have improvement
Fernando Rah – Smart win, looks a five-furlong specialist, will improve
Zarzyni – Ran well in defeat, looks sure to go well next time out, still has more to come
Beat The Breeze – Steadily progressive stayer, good record upped distance can keep going forward
Viola – Proved too good in the feature, has scope to get better
Lower Street – Not run suit but did well in defeat, interesting dropped in class, potentially well treated
Summereyes – Interesting handicap debut, too much to do, needs a step up in distance
Government – Nice newcomer, well-bred and will improve for it and further
Wineglass Bay – Potential to be useful, will be better over further long termInteresting Statistics
New Bay progeny have a 37.71% strike rate when tackling distances from ten furlongs to twelve furlongs with 25 wins from 67 bets at a +39.31 profit – Wineglass Bay is one to keep on side when tackling longer distances.
Daniel Muscutt rode a good double on the day, continuing his prolific form at the course. From 86 bets, he has had 23 wins at 26.74% to a +25.84 profit when riding at Southwell.
In 2021, Daniel Muscutt has had 20 rides at the course with 9 wins at 45% to a +4.96 profit and he should be paid close attention to whenever booked here.
James Fanshawe had a winner with his first runner here in 2021. He has a 30.77% strike rate at Southwell since 2003 with 16 wins from 52 at a profit of +24.18. He has won with his last two runners at the course (1 in 2020, 1 in 2021) and although has been infrequent here over the years, it could be a track he will do well with now the surface has changed.
Summary
In short, the switch of surface has appeared a success at it’s first trial. It will take some time to bed in and we are likely to see slow in the going description for some time. It looked to be favourable to be out on the front end generally, certainly in the business end from three out. It will take some monitoring over the coming meetings, but with our unique pace mapping database we will soon be able to see if any patterns emerge.
I’ll share the pace mapping in here for a few months to see how the course is performing
Of those runners, I think Zarzyni is going to go with a hell of chance next up and in his next few races. He looks to me like he could be David Barron’s next Venturous. David Barron has a very good record for the owners of these two and has a lot of success in these colours.
Wineglass Bay I think can prove very interesting as he goes up in distance as New Bay’s in their second season have been taking to the distances brilliantly. He will be an interesting fight time handicapper.
Of the 48 races so far at Southwell over 6 meetings, the generally winning positions have been;
Lead – 4 – 8.33%
Prominent – 12 – 25%
Mid Field – 17 – 35.42
Hold Up – 15 – 31.25%Too early to distinguish any bias but those are the early figures after 6 meetings
Of the 56 races at Southwell so far since the change of surface, there have been;
Lead – 5 – 8.93%
Prominent – 14 – 25%
Mid Field – 18 – 32.14%
Hold Up – 19 – 33.93%But emerging as a pattern is that 4 of the 5 wins from horses having led were back at the minimum five furlong on the straight course. When broken down on the five furlong course, there have been 13 races;
Lead – 4 – 30.77%
Prominent – 2 – 15.38%
Mid Field – 3 – 23.08%
Hold Up – 4 – 30.77%While it is not a benefit to front run on the five furlong course given wins in behind, it does seem to be much more favourable than making the running on the round course. So far, only one runner has managed to do so in 43 races clocking in at a meagre 2.33%, which gives an impression it is not proving favourable to front run on the round course
Possibly because of double compaction, there is a stall bias with the new surface.
The width of the machines that work the track are not sufficient to do a single pass so the track has to be worked twice – on the left and on the right. This means the middle gets worked twice and at that area the surface is much faster than at low or high.
So why don’t jockeys just manouvere away from the edges? Because of the rule that they have to keep straight for the first 80 yards! Jockeys have to stay in lane until they pass the orange marker. Then they can maneuver left or right but by now the damage has been done. They have run in the fluffy dunes, whilst those drawn 5-9 have run on the harder sand.
Look at:
Distance > 5f
Runners >= 101, 2, 3 can’t win at the moment. They really are at an extreme disadvantage and there is nothing that can be done unless a jockey choses to violate the keep straight rule.
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