- This topic has 997 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 10 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Haydock 1pm
A fast 5 f race here.
Form can be taken with a pinch of salt, given the type of race here.
By the same token one or two jockeys stand out and there does seem to be a handicap cluster in the mid division and the bottom weight.
David Evans makes few mistakes
And putting his SO SMART into this type of contest when he has been knocking on the door in normal handicaps under the senior jockey John Egan looks like one to me given natural progression, a win was just around the corner.
He comes up against LOTUS ROSE who readily dismantled the field at Redcar last time.
Confidence is high for this runner as the trainer Roger Fell has won this race the last three years with the same Dandy Man horse, (Dapper Man) Johnny peaty runs minus his claim so that should bring his horse closer to the field. They both have form with MAY BLOSSOM.
These runners are all linked by the draw and the weights. Drawn in the even stall 2,4 and 8.The bottom weight BOUDICA BAY in stall 1 has collaborative form with two of the three.
Win
LOTUS ROSECombination tricast
LOTUS ROSE
SO SMART
MAY BLOSSOMCombination tricast
MAY BLOSSOM
LOTUS ROSE
SO SMART
BOUDICA BAYTwo from four and no return.
Right about David Evans getting it wrong by pitching so smart into an apprentice race.
Wrong not to back BOUDICA BAY after highlighting a chance. Hard to take the positives out of that, but brush down and carry on….STORM CHASER
Haydock 1.30
Win
Gets the vote to follow up an easy win last time out off the same mark.
Will surely not get a fifty length lead this time, but still dangerous off this mark. May be just as effective held up, but likely still to try and dominate the other runners by racing prominently. Not a great price but may drift.
Can can Girl
Each way
A little valueTipperary 6.45
Ben Vrackie
Troubled times
Lasparas
Combination forecast
These three are the interesting ones in a maiden hurdle at Tipperary 6.45Ben vracke is a Frankel and was second at Royal Ascot and must be the highest rated flat horse to go hurdling for a while.
Ben Vrackie
Each way5.45
HE’S LEADING ME ON
Win
Has very good form coming into this Irish handicap hurdle.
Second on two runs including behind a Willie Mullins odds on shot.
His main opponent took 35 runs for the penny to drop and HE’S LEADING ME ON looks very progressive with that runner carrying a penalty.Bellewstown
6pmLAKOTA SIOUX
Win
MASTER GARVEY
Each way
Lakota Sioux ran well in second behind stablemate last time. They are both entered in the same group 1 race in September. And the form can be taken with a pinch of salt.
Newcomer Master Garvey has relatives with winning maiden form and is a massive price.LAKOTA SEVEN, somehow I called the horse Lakota Sioux. Took a while for the penny to drop again, but finished with a wet sail to finish well on top. Now the penny has dropped Joseph O’Brien has something to work with.
Naas
125
SILMANIYA
Win
Impressive the last twice.
Running on well and drop back to the minimum may suit. ( Although that is a question mark)
Statuette and Badb confirmed the form shown in front of Silmaniyain in the two races when finishing one and two.
Will be hard to beat if handling the step down in trip.Worcester last race
OCEANS OF MONEY 🌊
Each way ( SIX PLACES )
Interesting runner.
Third run for new stable after impressing in a point to point when runner up to a horse who is now waiting in the wings at Henry De Bromhead’s.
Debut finished lame and ran prominently last time before falling back down the field.
Steps up significantly in trip and the headgear goes on. Definite ability and likely to make a bold bid off a mark of 91.6.55
FairyhouseBALBEC BEAUTY
Each way
Ran very well last time over a mile.
Leading before fading to fifth,
Suggests this drop down to seven will suit well.
Bred to appreciate this distance as dam did it over this trip.
Billy Lee also booked here.
A big field and some decent newcomers mean each way rather than win but booking of Lee significant.
*Was 6/1 at time of posting.
Now into 4s. May be bigger elsewhereYork 2.05
GEREMIA
Botti form/ 35512114
Goldie form/5380
Win
Marked dip in performance since joining Jim Goldie from Marco Botti. Won three of last five runs for old stable.
First two runs pitched against Evaluation tells a different tale.
Eye-catching run in Northumberland plate latest where Paul Mulrenhan switched horse off, then on, then off. Trainer could offer no explanation for run where but for an injured horse and another tailed off horse would have gone from second to last in one furlong.
Handicapper has not swallowed the bait and kept horse on same mark. This is a class lower. Not drawn too well so each way.Very pleased with GEREMIA.
FIRST OFFICER
Win
Ascot 2.50
With soulcombe carrying a penalty.
FIRST OFFICER can gain due reward for decent previous performances with yard flying really should take this race with “both hands”.Newmarket superlative stakes
3.15
LION OF WAR
Win without victory Dance (EVENS)
Cannot believe this one is going to go off odds against.
Won at Newcastle in impressive style.
Had to race against himself as the opposition was average.
Nonetheless went ten lengths clear and was being eased down IN the final furlong.
Didn’t get up to win close home, put the race to bed half way up the straight.
Considering there were people prepared to back inspiral at 1/9 yesterday this is one to be on the right side of.
Has already had the benefit of a turf run winning on debut in a workmanlike performance.
Newcastle all weather to turf usually transitions well.
Up against decent sorts for the first time, Mark Johnston is fully entitled to be highly optimistic. And if he is tilting at windmills that is good by me.
Hopefully the penny dropped at Newcastle after a green debut on turf and if it really did, then we have a proper horse on our hands……
Currently 2/1
And evens to win without victory Dance
I will take both although the latter may not be needed, but given the peculiarities of the marvelous July course very good insurance. Losing one point to take the favourite out of the race is brilliant insurance to me.
* Decided to take the win without option as it makes full sense to have that stance. The 2/1 looks excellent though, but with a tougher race and a less than even course to deal with, I’m taking the insurance and looking forward to a big run.96 career runs
Two runs at 1 mile 1 furlong
and two wins at that trip. Both at Mussleburgh
Hamilton 2.50
TOMMY G
Each wayBenny the Duke
Win
5pm Killarney
Second to Ginto and Quantum realm in consecutive maiden hurdles with the third and fourth from those races going on to win.
If fit from a break in which the horse will have trained on and developed then has a strong chance.
—————————————–
Jockey and horse parted ways at the last.
In contention, but looked held.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.