Son Of A Gun We'll Have Big Fun On The Bayou

[stevecaution]

Today at Newmarket sees a nice field for the Sweet Solera.

I like Blue Bayou for this race.

I made her a 6/4 shot on my own fag packet book for the race and 15/8 looks generous considering the relative form of the contenders.

I know Jonibake likes Hawksmoor here and she was mighty impressive on her debut. She could be anything but this is a big step up today. The second in her maiden went on to win twice afterwards but it was a maiden race and a nursery she took, so the bare form isn’t great.

Bint Al Reem was tipped by Triptych on the forum and won impressively rewarding Jac’s faith in her. Another “Could be anything” horse but I am always wary of Godolphin winning 2yo’s on their second start. One thing with her is that she is decent odds today, whereas some of them go off way short and get turned over in their following race.

Fireglow has the second best form in the race in my opinion. She also ran behind Illuminate but was beaten further than Blue Bayou was. In her favour is that she has already won at the trip in listed company and the Johnston stable have some hot youngsters this season. On form I think she represents much better value at 4/1 than Bint Al Reem at the same price, or Hawksmoor at 5/1 but they have the scope to bridge the gap.

The Racing Post ratings for the leading four contenders are as follows:

Blue Bayou 107
Fireglow 98
Bint Al Reem 82
Hawksmoor 82

That’s a fair bit of catching up for the once raced fillies to do.

Besharah split Illuminate and Blue Bayou in the old Cherry Hinton last time. She finished ahead of a well regarded Easton Angel that day. Besharah dotted up in group 3 company next time and that looks good enough for me.

Blue Bayou 15/8 (Sky Bet 12.30pm)

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[RacingLife]

Well done mate, I got this one today too it looks like it could be special Brian Meehan thinks it’s the best filly he has trained.. 25/1 for the 100 Guineas could be value what do you think?

[stevecaution]

RacingLife wrote:

Well done mate, I got this one today too it looks like it could be special Brian Meehan thinks it’s the best filly he has trained.. 25/1 for the 100 Guineas could be value what do you think?

I reckon 20/1-25/1 is about the right price for Blue Bayou. She was hampered a bit at the start of the Sweet Solera and finished her race off well, as she had done the time before when narrow third.

This was Brian Meehan’s first group winner this year and he has had a lean time at the top level for a while. That would be the off-putting factor in backing Blue Bayou for the Guineas.

The Moyglare and The Rockfel are said to be potential targets for Blue Bayou next. I would lean towards the latter race, as the company will almost certainly be hot in Ireland.

I believe Blue Bayou to be one of the solid, rather than spectacular sorts. Coming from behind in her races seems to suit her. The form with her, Besharah and Illuminate has a solid look to it and she has Newmarket form in the book now. Certainly a candidate I would say.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[nwalton]

well done steve nice result

[stevecaution]

nwalton wrote:

well done steve nice result

Thanks, she wasn’t big odds but looked a value bet.

Just before the race Graeme Cunningham said the Goldolphin and Hugo Palmer fillies were “big improvers”, however, he didn’t mention that they had 25 lbs to find with the favourite on the ratings coming into the race.

Sometimes the gap can be bridged on the ones who have the form already in the book but Blue Bayou was also lightly raced and had form with one of the leading lights for next year’s Guineas. If we allowed Blue Bayou 3 lbs of improvement herself, it left the other two needing to find two stones.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Author]

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