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Usually it’s the track rather than the early pace that’s the issue according to trainer comments and times. Most people now believe that you need a horse who can stay 7f on a flat track to win the Golden Jubilee.
I for one don’t think he’ll have any stamina issues. After pulling he still lasted home okay over 2m on soft ground; and on breeding too he should stay the trip right out. As for undulations in the track, (greater emphasis on stamina aside) horses get used to by simply training on and getting familiar with it so hopefully that should be fine.- Total Posts 17716
Usually it’s the track rather than the early pace that’s the issue according to trainer comments and times. Most people now believe that you need a horse who can stay 7f on a flat track to win the Golden Jubilee.
I for one don’t think he’ll have any stamina issues. After pulling he still lasted home okay over 2m on soft ground; and on breeding too he should stay the trip right out. As for undulations in the track, (greater emphasis on stamina aside) horses get used to by simply training on and getting familiar with it so hopefully that should be fine.Exactly,some horses also wont stretch out on a downhill run,and yes horses can learn to handle different types of tracks with plenty of experiece. A glaring back hander from ‘reet hard’ was that if the Aussie sprinters didn’t have the stamina to last on the undulating tracks then an Aussie middle distance or further would most likely do even worse as they are racing over further.If SYT fails i will be on here to say i wrong,i hope the doubters are as well if and i am pretty sure when he dominates.
I contribute to a New Zealand racing forum called Stabletalk – long story short, Mrs Stodge is of the Kiwi persuasion and we will go back and live there in a few years.
Anyway, they were interested in SO YOU THINK for obvious reasons and I posed the question as to who would prevail in the following scenarios:
1 mile: SO YOU THINK vs FRANKEL (assuming wfa)
1 mile 2 furlongs: SO YOU THINK vs WORKFORCE (level weights)
1 mile 4 furlongs: SO YOU THINK vs WORKFORCE (level weights)The concensus is that SO YOU THINK would beat FRANKEL over a mile – the view being that FRANKEL, while spectacular last Saturday, hasn’t proven himself against older horses (not that he has had the opportunity).
Over 10 furlongs, SO YOU THINK prevails – it’s his optimum trip.
Over 12 furlongs WORKFORCE prevails.
I’m not sure I agree with any of these assessments but it’s interesting to see how highly the Kiwis rate the O’Brien charge and rightly so having won the Cox Plate and a string of other races.
Unfortunately So You Think has come to Europe when the first serious middle distance horse for some time (Workforce) has been kept in training as a 4yo and probably one of the top 5 milers of all time in the UK (Frankel) is about.
I’m no expert on Australian or New Zealand racing, but would have thought that So You Think would have to have been beating their horses by 8-10 lengths to consider him good enough to beat Workforce and/or Frankel.
Looking at his limited form on Racing Post, can’t see any victories by those types of margins.
As nice a horse as he looks, have to be a big doubter at this stage and would comfortably side with Workforce and Frankel….. at any distance
Unfortunately So You Think has come to Europe when the first serious middle distance horse for some time (Workforce) has been kept in training as a 4yo and probably one of the top 5 milers of all time in the UK (Frankel) is about.
I’m no expert on Australian or New Zealand racing, but would have thought that So You Think would have to have been beating their horses by 8-10 lengths to consider him good enough to beat Workforce and/or Frankel.
Wow. This is a LARGE racing jurisdiction, one whose sprinters destroy European sprinters, not Italy. Their stayers have also done well enough to hold out European stayers since the Europeans have started racing in the Melbourne Cup.
I agree with the Kiwi perspective but I think Workforce might need to improve from last year to beat SYT at 4. Workforce was no star at 3, IMO the Arc proved that. There was nothing between him and Nakayama Festa, Sarafina unlucky not to finish right there with them, and Behkabad had excuses too. He won the Derby well, but was ridden out to the line on a track that was riding fast. He beat a pacemaker into 2nd; that one was ridden to win his next two races and was well beaten, including in a G2 by a bunch of ordinary types. 3rd Rewilding didn’t get the clearest of runs and likely didn’t handle the track; he didn’t get going until it was far too late.
I hope you mean that WF is one of the first serious middle distance horses TO RACE AT 4 rather than first serious middle distance horse period… Sea The Stars and Zarkava looked alright.
correct Presto,
, one of the best 3yo 12f horses to be kept in training at 4.Pretty sure that trainer and owner would not consider keeping him in training unless they thought he would improve physically, so have absolutely no doubt Workforce will be just as good conceding WFA.
He broke the track record at Epsom. Irrespective of what the rest did that day, there have been plenty of fast ground Derbys won by good horses, and that marks out Workforce as one of the best in the last 20 years at least.
The Arc was no reflection on his superiority. They didn’t go a fast enough gallop to sort out the also rans , but Workforce showed his class to quicken up way better than proven Group 1 rivals who didn’t have the speed to get out of trouble (including Planteur and Sarafina)
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Maori Venture your post is so far off the mark you should join Shattered and Reet Hard in the naughty corner.
I’m no expert on Australian or New Zealand racing, but would have thought that So You Think would have to have been beating their horses by 8-10 lengths to consider him good enough to beat Workforce and/or Frankel.
You most certainly are no expert. There are very few opportunities to test the Aussie middle distance form. Horses like Phar Lap, Tobin Bronze, Elvestroem, Haradasun, Strawberry Road, Let’s Elope, Better Loosen Up, Romanee Conti, Sunline and Horlicks have tested the waters on rare occasions. Of that group probably only Phar Lap would make the top five all time horses to appear on Australian racetracks.
Attitudes like your own are reflected in the ratings for Australian thoroughbreds by organisations like Timeform. Those ratings are inaccurate to say the least and often insulting. It suited the Nth Hemisphere breeders to play down Australian quality while over selling their own stock. This outlook has been corrected of late in some quarters.
So You Think is the greatest Australian racehorse since Kingston Town. I know that name means little to people from the Nth Hemisphere but KT at his best was vastly superior to any number of Epsom Derby winners. At his worst as an old aged cripple he still took top class Gr1 races. Workforce would have been tactically and classicly embarassed by such an animal. KT’s turn of foot would have left him standing. SYT Vs KT would have been some contest.
Referring to the underlined section of your quote I’ll turn it around. If Workforce was half as good as some people here rate him he would have beaten Nakayama Festa by at least ten lengths in the Arc. Fact is he was an average Arc winner that beat a very average second placegetter. There’s nothing average about So You Think.
As for Frankel Vs So You Think we are talking about what are probably the two best horses at a mile or beyond on the planet. I’m laughing at the fact that Workforce gets mentioned in the same sentence as Frankel. One is a freak and the other ran freakishly one time. There’s a big difference in quality there for mine. A very big difference. Frankel is undefeated and won the Guineas in a manner nobody has ever seen before. Workforce already has more than one defeat and the manner of his Derby win was far from unprecedented. Shergar readily comes to mind.
The owner of Workforce is a breeder who is fully conversant with the long term commercial viability of Derby winners and Arc winners. There wont be a long and sustained queue at the breeding barn for a son of King’s Best. As a breeding proposition Azamour is more attractive and could only command 30 mares or so in his third season at stud. Given the options I wouldn’t hesitate to put a lightly raced Workforce back into training either.
I’m not gonna claim i’ve watched much uk racing, so please correct me if i’m wrong here.
But from the few races I have seen (frankel’s demolition in the guineas, harbingers demolition in the george/elizabeth and SYT’s win) it doesn’t look to me like they were eased up much (if at all). Although the camera does go way way out at the end which is new to me. But if this is true, it’d be wise to keep that in mind when saying SYT needs to have won by so many (ie 10) lengths in australian racing, because in aussie horses get eased up if they’re far out in front. Happened to SYT a few times in his 10f wins in aus.
And more specifically on SYT’s first run. I’m not sure anyone should really have changed their opinion because of that run. All it really means is the change of conditions didn’t ruin him. But whether he matches up against the top euro horses or not remains as unclear as ever. I duno how you can sit here and so boldly state one way or another that he is gonna smash workforce or vice versa, seems crazy to me. Presumably it’s because aussies on here are talking him up because they think aussies are the best – and I suspect many brits rejecting the horse on the grounds that they think no aussie middle distance horse can be good. Either way, crazy stuff.
good points racinglover, and Chiswickian your knowledge of racing down under far outweighs mine.
Personally have no doubts that Australian sprinters are different class to European counterparts. In fact struggling to think of a world class sprinter based in UK, Ireland or France last 10-12 years.
Obviously 2m of the Melbourne Cup and soft ground would not be So Yot Think’s ideal cup of tea, but to give you some terms of reference with European middle distance racing, the winner Americain rates around 12-13 lengths inferior to Workforce over 12f.
I have no idea how much higher you would rate So You Think over more optimal conditions, but at least through Americain you have a guide.
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I take your point re Americain. The race was a handicap though ( 3lbs 3.25l ) and So You Think was stepping up six furlongs in trip for the first time on soft ground. About the only time you see a top flight horse step up in trip like that here is in the Ascot Gold Cup. So You Think was also on a 3 day back up going into the Cup. You never see that here with a top flight Gr1 horse.
I also contend that Americain’s trip Downunder represented the vastly superior form of his lifetime and was a significant improvement on anything I’d seen from him in France or America. I admit I layed him for the Melbourne Cup and did my money cold. My information to contacts in Australia and New Zealand was along the lines of "no hope". I was way off. It happens.
Since returning to France we have seen the old Americain in his old inconsistent form. That hasn’t displeased me and I’ve been a big layer. He’s certainly repaid my doubts about his ability. I’m not sure what happened Downunder but I’d have the horse on the next plane back to Oz after his last two efforts. The scenery obviously agrees with him. Mind you it could also be said the horse arrived there on a roll and full of confidence encountering a wet Melbourne spring that met to his liking. His last run of the season in HK was further indication of the rare form Americain was in at the time.
I hope that helps to place the form of So You Think into context for some.
It is my impression that TF ratings seems to favour performances in the UK and never rates those in other countries as high.
interesting view on Americain, Chiswickian. Personally I rated his Melbourne Cup win 4lbs below his Deauville Grp 2 sh hd win over Manighar in August and 6lbs below his 3rd to Mastery in a Sha Tin Group 1 in December.
So maybe I am badly underrating his Melbourne Cup win which you think was vastly superior to anything else he has achieved?
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I usually stay away from real staying contests as I find them unpredictable outside of old reliables like Kasbah Bliss.
Americain was terrific in the HK Vase; they absolutely crawled and sprinted, which was always going to hurt a horse who stays 2m strongly. With the pace on he would have gone close to beating Mastery.
I did like Americain in the Melbourne Cup, partly because Gerald Mosse was telling everybody in HK that he was going to win. I wasn’t familiar with the horse, but I was impressed that he showed such a decent sprint (especially with the 2m Cup in mind) when he won the 12f Geelong Cup. Didn’t beat much but a decent turn of foot over that trip with top weight ticked some boxes.
I’m not familiar enough with his pre-Cup form but his Melbourne Cup run is his best effort out of his last 5 (2 down under, HK, and 2 runs this season).
The pace and distance hurt him in the HK Vase, and they also didn’t go quickly in the Geelong I’m pretty sure; he only won because he was up against a moderate lot. Everything went right in the Melbourne Cup, with the 2nd a promising horse who was in cracking form, and a few others behind had decent enough credentials. I don’t do ratings, my view is that Americain was in similar form for those 3 races didn’t show it in all those races because of the circumstances/distances/ground, etc.I agree that TimeForm and other organizations underrate Aussie form. So You Think’s rating was an insult, and there has always been a glass ceiling for sprinters (I think it was 123 or 124 according to the international handicappers) until Black Caviar smashed it. As a result Sacred Kingdom and others were criminally underrated, and their logic in justifying their figures were often nonsensical.
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Amazing to think that a horse has won 2 Cox Plates and some people say he hasn’t been tested in a quality race.I dont think it is too far off the mark to suggest the Cox Plate is one of the WFA championships of the world. I would think at least in the top 6 for a Quality race world wide.
shattered, sounds like you have some knowledge of Australian racing?
Can you or any other Australian experts pick out which of So You Think’s opposition in those Cox Plate victories would be competitive in similar 10f Group 1 events over here such as the Eclipse, Irish Champion, Juddmonte International or Champion Stakes at Newmarket?
, one of the best 3yo 12f horses to be kept in training at 4.
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