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We must be at the prices.
He beats a cup horse in the John Porter, a half fit cup horse at Chester and a zero pace borderline Group 2 horse in the Hardwicke and suddenly he’s rated 5lbs better than a median Group 1 winning horse.
Now he’s 5/2 to beat an Epsom Derby course record holder, a back to form resolute Irish Derby winner and a high class genuine Group 1 filly who beat 8 Group 1 winners in Dubai and who has run to within 2 and 4 lengths of Conduit and Sea The Stars respectively, back over her best trip.
Has the world gone mad? <!– s:) –>
<!– s:) –>If he’s backed off the boards
he’ll have time to stop for his photoDoubt he will be, given Moore’s decision.
I won’t have a bet in the race but I certainly wouldn’t lay Harbinger. His Ascot form is the best form in the race. The opening poster criticises Harbinger for beating " a borderline group two horse" yet what exactly did Workforce beat in the Derby?
That Ascot race looks rock solid to me and Harbinger didn’t just beat them he beat them with contempt.
Cape Blanco beat his stablemates in Ireland, Youmzain doesn’t like winning.
Its a tricky race given the form of the Stoute yard But I’d rather back Harbinger than Workforce as yet nothing has told us that the Derby form is any good at all.
Harbinger seems resolute and is likeable but I would be very surprised and disappointed if he’s able to cope with what looked an above average Derby winner in Workforce (although I accept the form of the Derby remians unproven).
Harbinger is 8lbs below Workforce on official rating and that would be my assessment. If that assessment is as much as half a stone out in the older horse’s favour, Harbinger will
still
be hard-pressed to beat Workforce.
5/2 looks far too short. More like 5/1.
Harbinger is 8lbs below Workforce on official rating…
The BHA site has it at 128 and 123 = 5 lb difference.
Given the subsequent form of many of the horses Harbinger has beaten I would suggest even that may be too much.
Lay of the season is WORKFORCE.
Cape Blanco is a ridiculous price at 6/1, absolutely on it!
Took my rating off the Sporting Life website where the OR’s for Sat are shown as 128 and 120. Maybe something to do with weight being carried?
RPR’s have both Harbinger and Workforce on 129 it seems. I don’t think there is a lot in it between them. Certianly not enough to suggest laying Harbinger at 5/2.
Given the ‘Gamble Landed’ thread and that both represent the same yard, the betfair market 30 secs before the off will tell us plenty!
Can’t help but feel ‘racing’ is missing a chance to sell this one. Perhaps because Stoute and Moore aren’t quite as media friendly as Nicholls and Walsh, but this is surely Flat racing’s Denman v Kauto Star but even the racing press are underselling it.
I won’t have a bet in the race but I certainly wouldn’t lay Harbinger. His Ascot form is the best form in the race. The opening poster criticises Harbinger for beating " a borderline group two horse" yet what exactly did Workforce beat in the Derby?
That Ascot race looks rock solid to me and Harbinger didn’t just beat them he beat them with contempt.
Cape Blanco beat his stablemates in Ireland, Youmzain doesn’t like winning.
Its a tricky race given the form of the Stoute yard But I’d rather back Harbinger than Workforce as yet nothing has told us that the Derby form is any good at all.
Nice post, Id much rather back him than lay him tbh.
If Harbinger finishes in front of Workforce on Saturday, I will seriously consider taking up carpet bowls and reading Jeffrey Archer novels.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
We must be at the prices.
He beats a cup horse in the John Porter, a half fit cup horse at Chester and a zero pace borderline Group 2 horse in the Hardwicke and suddenly he’s rated 5lbs better than a median Group 1 winning horse.
Now he’s 5/2 to beat an Epsom Derby course record holder, a back to form resolute Irish Derby winner and a high class genuine Group 1 filly who beat 8 Group 1 winners in Dubai and who has run to within 2 and 4 lengths of Conduit and Sea The Stars respectively, back over her best trip.
Has the world gone mad?
Harbinger is rated by Timeform as 1 lb below Workforce. Workforce has (imo) a better chance than Harbinger, but not by the difference in prices suggest.
Then there’s the current form of the Stoute Camp which could be better. Older horses can be more immune to virusses than younger ones, if they’ve had it in the past. That’s if Stoute has a virrus.
Form is one horse against the next, not what grade the race happens to be called.
Value Is EverythingSurprised this thread is still here given the alacrity that a couple of threads of this nature were moved into Lays And Plays last week, albeit started by less of a forum heavyweight.
No slight on you Cav obviously, but a less than consistent approach one could argue. And if not Lays and Plays, it should definitely be moved to ‘Big Races’.
- Total Posts 17716
See also my post on the King George thread, adding the fact that Richard Hughes has turned Harbinger down in favour of Youmzain of all animals. Hmmm.
A Harbinger win seems about as likely as Rowan Williams for Pope. Mind you, I wouldn’t be rushing to put the mortgage on Workforce either. Da Re Mi is more of a bruiser than either, and older females do win this race on occasion (just as – now – beaten horses in the Dante do sometimes win the Derby!)
- Total Posts 17716
There are more possitives to Harbinger than Workforce for me because at least Harbinger has proven form, so much of Workforce’s ability is yet to be proven..
Ive rarely met anyone who considers times to be that important in European racing because of how different one race to the next is run. The main reason Workforce set the record is down to the pace At First Sight set, I dare say many previous derby winners would of done the same had they of had such a pace maker to run at.
For all the talk of the time it was possibly the worst Derby I can remember.
Workforce beat;
At First Sight – A group 3 or 2 horse at best
Rewilding – Remains to be seen
Jan Vermeer – a very very average horse
Midas Touch – again a very very average horse, to finish 2nd in any Irish Derby these days is nothing to write home about.
Buzzword has managed to win since and he is a decent horse but theres a big difference between a German Derby and a King George, whilst he is a very good horse hes nowhere near good enough for the race on Saturday.
The bottom line he he hasnt beaten much, he himself was beaten by Cape Blanco, there were excuses that day but if your asking punters to take odds on in group one then surely you wouldnt want a horse whos raced three times when he had excuses in one of them….
<!– s:) –>
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