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You could say both those things about any handicap. And handicaps make up a great proportion of the total number of races. The total prize money on offer (and the number of wins available) in handicaps that are not the GN dwarfs that of the Aintree Blue Riband.
Despite the sarcasm from would-be humorists, the more I think about my proposal for determining the British (and Irish) Jump Jockeys Championship the more it grows on me. A minimum of 200 rides to qualify, average prize money per ride is a simple enough basis. The advantage would be:
To find an all round Champion based on a combination of hard work, endeavour and skill whilst placing due accent upon rewarding those successful in the top quality echelon of the sport, in the races that most matter and resonate with the public. The process, quite rightly, would naturally exclude those not primarily making their living in Britain and those whose season has been wrecked by injury or suspension.
Last season’s Top 20 under my proposal would have been (actual position in brackets; figure is average prize money per ride in GBP; 200 rides minimum remember):
1 (8) N. De Boinville 4769.92
2 (12) D. Jacob 4173.77
3 (9) H. Cobden 3254.98
4 (25) B. Frost 3175.87
5 (5) S. Twiston-Davies 2981.41
6 (4) N. Fehily 2600.82
7 (3) H. Skelton 2279.34
8 (17) D. Cook 2222.55
9 (1) R. Johnson 2136.22
10 (20) W. Hutchinson 2133.35
11 (7) S. Bowen 2120.35
12 (13) J. Bowen 2106.66
13 (26) A. Heskin 1908.05
14 (16) G. Sheehan 1901.71
15 (2) B. Hughes 1779.83
16 (69) J. Burke 1684.50
17 (48) J. Bargary 1653.21
18 (23) D. Bass 1577.63
19 (10) T. Scudamore 1554.22
20 (33) A. Wedge 1547.60Conclusion: This does the trick as far as I’m concerned and may provide useful punting pointers for the future. Several on this site have long regarded Nico De Boinville as the best jockey riding today, he gets the job done in the races that matter, no fuss. Daryl Jacob raised his game to a new level last season, finally coming through consistently when the pressure was on. Positions 3, 4 & 5 indicate the brilliance of Paul Nicholls and why he doesn’t need Sam as stable jockey. It confirms what a prospect Harry Cobden is and equally James Bowen to virtually match his brother at a tender age. Danny Cook and Wayne Hutchinson are underrated, the latter has been all his career. Burke, Bargary and Wedge are duly rewarded for joy in big races. It proves, IMO, just amassing winners is overrated (Johnson, Hughes, Skelton) but the biggest loser is Aiden Coleman whose actual position was 6th – he ranks 24th by my method – the man has a brain, however, fails to engage it when riding preferring to just go out and see what happens.
What your Championship takes no notice of is expectation, GM.
Nico is the Champion Trainer’s number 1 jockey. Nicky Henderson had more top horses than anyone else last season and that means they had a better chance of winning valuable races – starting at shorter prices. Therefore, Nico wins more valuable races than anyone else.
Daryl has a retainer with Munir. The owner had plenty of good horses last season and therefore his jockey had an excellent season.
Richard Johnson has a retainer with Philip Hobbs who had a bad virus and I can’t remember having a worse year… And yet Johnson still won more races than anyone else.
As I said, number of wins is not ideal, but it is the best way a “Jockeys Championship” can be decided. Of course it should not be seen as a definite measure of ability. To do that would be far too complicated for a seasonal crown.
If wanting a proper way of establishing a measure of jockey ability it must take in to account expectation. Ability of a jockey can not be judged by comparing what one jockey does in getting on plenty of good horses with excellent chances of winning valuable races – against another jockey that gets on fewer horses and mainly outsiders with little chance of winning valuable races. When Nico rides Altior against Paddy Brennen’s Gods Own, it’s pretty obvious the former has a much better chance of winning the valuable race and that scenario is frequently repeated throughout a season.
Expectation needs to be taken in to account. I did think using odds alone could do this, but that would be unfair to top jockeys. eg AP or Walsh were/is top jockeys, but punters know this and therefore tend to follow or are biased in favour of their mounts which in turn means a large amount of their rides went/go off at odds shorter than their actual chance. It is after all the horse whose legs are on the ground, not the jockey’s. So although comparing with odds would be ok if looking for purely market under-rated jockeys – it does not necessarily identify ability. Therefore, a better way of allowing for expectation is a run to form comparisson. ie What rating a jockey can make each horse run to compared to the individual horse’s form norm. To do this it may be best to take in to account how likely a horse is of running to form in the first place. Not sure how to do this, but dismissing those horses unlikely to run to form from the qualifying rides of each jockey may be necessary. May be using run to form criteria compared to going and distance expected requirements?
Richard Johnson had more rides than anyone else last season and if we were talking about a Jockeys Championship of any particular season it would imo be wrong to limit the number of rides. However, if only concerned about comparing how good a jockey is (non-seasonal) there could be an equal limit that does not account for time scale. eg Taking every jockeys last 200 qualifying rides, whether they are in one season or two or three.
It could also look in to what type of ride each jockey excels or is poor at. Comparing (allowing for expectation) how successful each rider is with front running rides, prominent, mid-div, held up and dropped out compared to the average strike rate with that type of animal.
However, most of the above is already done by Timeform.
Value Is EverythingBrian Hughes is a case and point why the current structure of this ‘championship’ (please read glorified award, as most don’t give too hoots about it) is better than this average £ per ride method.
Wayne Hutchison & Danny Cook are miles behind Hughes in riding talent, and that’s just one example.A worthwhile debate among aficionados, but can you envisage trying to explain such a structure as Mark’s to newcomers?
GM’s seems fairly straightforward. As to the chicken and egg of Champ Trainer employs Champ Jockey, the fact that Henderson has chosen Nico as his number one could be seen as a strong endorsement for GM’s suggestion, in this instance at least.
I suspect the top trainers know much more than we do about the skills of respective jockeys. It would be interesting to see the top ten trainers nominations for the top ten jockeys.
Surely the championship should remain as it is as it needs to be in a simplistic form for the general public to engage with [which is what the current system does]. We might actually have an exciting season watching Johnson try to thwart the Skelton plan; that wouldn’t happen if it was all down to prize money [and anyway; shouldn’t some things at least not be about money]. We also wouldn’t get situations such as [if my memory is in gear today] the Francome/Scudamore year when one of them was injured and the other one stopped riding so they could share the title; the sort of thing that makes me love racing so much. The current system might not be totally fair but most systems aren’t and there has to be a compromise.
Lifetime records:
Brian Hughes
7337 rides
956 wins
13.03%
profit/loss at Betfair SP – loss of 880.94
…………………………………….W Hutchinson
5049
698
13.82%
profit of 264.35
……………………………………
D Cook
2042
318
15.57%
profit of 192.16
…………………………..A worthwhile debate among aficionados, but can you envisage trying to explain such a structure as Mark’s to newcomers?
Exactly, Joe. It’s not something newcomers would understand. That’s why I said a worthwhile way of finding the actual best jockeys can not be done in the form of a Jockeys Championship. However, it can be done for those aficionados who want to know.
It is also why the existing simplistic Jockey Championship works fine (for what it is) as it is now. Can you imagine too having to explain to newcomers why one race that they can see has been very easy to win for the jockey… counting much more than one that everyone can see has been much harder to win? A win is a win is a win as far as newcomers are concerned.
Value Is EverythingGinger, the perceived (by those in the know) better jockeys will always be snapped up by the most powerful owners and trainers.
Thanks for the stats, Joe.
The beauty of my idea is that you won’t get one person winning the JC for 233,000 years in a row followed by another (replacing the former as top client of the dominant agent) for the next 57,000 seasons.
My JC would be more affected by a top trainer loss of form, GT, and it would give a jockey usually solidly in the Top 20 a chance to win one year with GN victory and a couple of other big races, perhaps. It might encourage flat track bullies in the north to try to prove themselves down south and some Irish-based riders to visit Britain more often. Seeing how it played out year-on-year might change jockeys’ behaviour in the medium term before we are introduced to the spectacle of ‘our champion’, in the relentless quest for yet one more winner, taking a mount on a donkey at Blackpool Beach, jumping sandcastles.
It would not be boring – which is what we have at present.
it would give a jockey usually solidly in the Top 20 a chance to win one year with GN victory and a couple of other big races,
So you’re not after a “Champion Jockey” at all then, GM?
imo When it comes to a Champion Jockey, three winners should not be what makes a Champion – whatever the races are.
Value Is EverythingThree big winners plus all the others that get him or her consistently in the Top 20.
it would give a jockey usually solidly in the Top 20 a chance to win one year with GN victory and a couple of other big races,
Yes, of course there’d be other winners, GM. But solidity plus three particular winners should not be enough to win a Jockeys Championship imo.
…Especially when Solidity Plus beats 200+.
200+ Winners is Quality Jockeyship imo.Value Is Everything200+ Winners is Quality Jockeyship imo.
My basic thrust, Ginger, is that it’s not necessarily on its own. It’s just getting more rides, on more fancied horses because you have a reputation, the top agent and the willingness to sacrifice most other things in life to put up the numbers.
Likewise, GT, only a few months until there’ll be some decent Jumping topics to discuss :)
Why don’t the pair of you (GT & GM) follow whatever your systems are over the upcoming ‘proper’ NH season, updating TRF from time to time, and compare it with the regulation most winners table
Quite what’s ‘improper’ about summer jumping I fail to understand, particularly on the lush Spring going in May and much of June which generally compares favourably with going in October, but whatever whatever
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