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So you guys are against Sire De Grugy because, while he joined a ultra-select band of horses to win a handicap from a mark above 170, he lacked a certain je ne sais quoi?
Look at the horses who have tried similar tasks in recent years – just a few spring to mind so please add more if I am omitting any notable ones. No matter how you defy a mark of 172, simply doing it is special. His best is behind him? He lacked sparkle? What?
He’s one of the special ones now…2015 Bombay Chase – Sire De Grugy 172 WON – bt. Grey Gold (10-06) 7 lengths
2012 Hennessy Gold Cup – Tidal Bay 166 2nd – to Bobs Worth (11-06) 3 1/4 lengths
2009 Hennessy Gold Cup – Denman 174 WON – bt. What A Friend (10-04) 3 1/2 lengths
2005 Victor Chandler Chase – Well Chief 176 WON – bt. Thisthatandtother (10-04) 1 3/4 lengths
2004 Haldon Gold Cup – Azertyuiop 174 WON – bt. Seebald (10-06) 5 lengths
2004 Victor Chandler Chase – Azertyuiop 168 2nd – to Isio (10-05) nk
2001 First National Gold Cup – Best Mate 169 2nd – to Wahiba Sands (10-04) 1/2 length
1998 Grand National – Suny Bay 170 2nd – to Earth Summit (10-05) 11 lengths
Come the morning of the race I can see this being:
3/1 Sprinter Sacre
100/30 Sire De Grugy
100/30 Dodging Bullets
11/2 Champagne Fever
8/1 Mr Mole
16/1 Hidden Cyclone
25/1 Simply Ned
33/1 Special Tiara
100/1 Moscow Mannon
100/1 Hinterland
Betting to 112.3%What price the three main protaganists go off will depend on how confident the Henderson camp are on the day.
Value Is Everything^^ I tend to agree with you about SDG’s worth TYF, but those races you quote were far more competitive than yesterday’s. SDG really had only two horses to beat, only one of which ran anywhere near form.
Value Is EverythingYou make some fair points Joe, but do not mention the fact many/most punters were underestimating the task SDG had in front of him yesterday. Something that is often the case in small field handicaps. Punters see the price and assume he has an easy task; therefore when winning… naturally believe the horse did not need to do that much to win.
I backed Mr Mole to win at Newbury. Don’t believe SDG was anywhere near his best even before the mistakes in the home straight. Had Moore’s marauder been at his best it would have been fairly close between the two (giving 4 lbs away) but SDG’s superior temperament would’ve seen him home imo.
As for Mr Mole and Cheltenham: Last year Mr Mole looked a bit of a dog, change to prominent tactics seem to have seen a rejuvination. If he tries to down tools at the start like he did at Newbury; with a more electric atmosphere there’s a distinct possibility anyone backing ante-post won’t get a run for their money… And even if he does set off – with front/prominent runners: Champagne Fever, Hidden Cyclone, Special Tiara, possibly Next Sensation, Bailey Green, Sizing Europe and (strangely enough) Somersby as well… Mr Mole is far less likely to get a prominent position; particularly if playing up and losing any ground at the start. Helped by only one, owner companion Uxizandre wanting to lead and racing wide at Newbury. Can see him sulking out the back if not getting away on terms. The horse is one of those whose odds at first glance look value on "form", but when accounting for liklyhood of running to form – is poor value (imo).
Value Is EverythingI remain sceptical that Mr Mole improved 10 lbs to 165 last time out. We will see come Cheltenham but I’ll be a layer with him based on one run where one rival fell and another ran a stinker (Uxizandre) after a stinker the time before as well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ginger, if so many underestimated SDG’s task, why was he not odds on?
As to Mr Mole, of course there’s a chance, after what he did at Newbury that he might again play up at the start, but he shows no signs whatever – to me, at least – of quirkiness when racing. He travelled far and away the best of that Newbury field throughout and when asked to put the race to bed after the 3rd last, he did so in striking fashion, pulling farther and farther away until heavily eased and passing the post looking like he could go round again – it ain’t what they do, it’s the way that they do it
My concerns with him are that he might revel in softer ground than he’ll get in the QM, and that he tends to jump too often off his forehand.
But I’ve had a small bet at a value price, as a saver. Have also backed DB (another who won with much more in hand than he was given credit for last time, imo), and SDG.
Ginger, if so many underestimated SDG’s task, why was he not odds on?
As to Mr Mole, of course there’s a chance, after what he did at Newbury that he might again play up at the start, but he shows no signs whatever – to me, at least – of quirkiness when racing. He travelled far and away the best of that Newbury field throughout and when asked to put the race to bed after the 3rd last, he did so in striking fashion, pulling farther and farther away until heavily eased and passing the post looking like he could go round again – it ain’t what they do, it’s the way that they do it
My concerns with him are that he might revel in softer ground than he’ll get in the QM, and that he tends to jump too often off his forehand.
But I’ve had a small bet at a value price, as a saver. Have also backed DB (another who won with much more in hand than he was given credit for last time, imo), and SDG.
Exactly right Joe, “it ain’t what they do, it’s the way that they do it“, and that’s what gets results, you can try hard, don’t mean a thing.
It is the way Mr Mole has done it this season that’s the problem. With so many prominent/front runners in the field to take him on. He’s National Hunt’s version of Noble Mission. Did you see him the last two seasons when held up? Either jumping poorly or get there and find little. This season they’ve changed tactics. Made in to a front runner or one that races prominently with an unobstructed view of the front; jumping much better and running on more genuinly in a finish than used to be the case. Did you notice how (although lost plenty of ground at the start) McCoy went wide to get a clear view at his fences when not in the lead? It is my belief Mr Mole does not like being behind horses. That’ll be fine if able to do the same at Cheltenham, but at the moment there are so many front/prominent runners entered that there’s a possibility (not just if again slowly away) of not being able to get the usual “way that he does it”. Or if achieving a good early position – too much pressure for the lead and an overly strong pace.
Having seen Mr Mole’s action at Newbury, I wouldn’t be too concerned on that score.
Think I’ve answered your question about price in the Cheltenham thread.
Value Is EverythingIf sdgrugy shows normal improvement on what was really his first run for nearly a year then he must take all the beating. Dodging bullets and Mr mole to me aren’t genuine qm horses and there position at the top of the market owe more to other horses ailments than their ability. I’d love to see sdg,ssacre and champagne fever together at the last as that would set the pulse racing. Champagne fever to me is the great unknown and I suspect will be there at the end of the race. Heart and head says sdgrugy and I hope to see this gorgeous looking horse striding up the hill to victory.
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