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Is this going to be a proper race for him or just the next test in order to see where he really stands?
I mean what is the scenario?
He would have to win and jump convincingly in order to book his QM ticket, I reckon. Any other outcome might and should result in his defection from that race.
He will be facing some horses in form, he will have to give a lot of weight away and this is not exactly the ideal prep race for a championship race at Cheltenham.
Probably connections just want to be 100% sure if they are heading in the right direction.
Any views or detailed informations are welcome.In the days before soft pattern chases the likes of Badsworth Boy might lug 12st 7lb around Catterick or Market Rasen in preparation for the Festival.
So what if Sire De Grugy races off 172 and gets beat?
Ok, if it’s by Whispering Harry (123 and well out if the handicap proper) it doesn’t look too clever but if Sire De Grugy gets anywhere near Far West, Grey Gold, Melodic Rendezvous or Solar Impulse then he is on course for a bold bid in the Champion Chase.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The race has cut up badly and only 4 run now.
ATR have provided the following, really helpful, preview:-
SIRE DE GRUGY was performing creditably on his reappearance at Newbury before unseating his rider and is fully expected to score before a tilt at the Champion Chase. His opposition are no mugs, though, and the weight he surrenders to the field does make him vulnerable if he fails to show his true ability. Grey Gold hasn’t really fired the last twice but has had his excuses (reportedly had problems with his shoes on both occasions) and will relish these conditions. The improving novice Far West is going in the right direction and completes the shortlist.
A shortlist of three for a four horse race
They probably would have squeezed the only other runner onto the list if it was not for the fact the horse is a stone out of the handicap and rank outsider.
4/5 Sire De Grugy at the moment and we won’t learn much other than whether his jumping is recomposed, after a howler and a scared looking leap at the very next fence that saw him come to grief in The Game Spirit.
I am not a fan of how he’s been prepared, or the mixed messages that keep coming out of the yard. This is clearly plan B, if not C, when we were assured there was only one plan.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
93% the Book across the boards and Sire De Grugy an ominous looking 6/4 on Betfair.
The ground is heavy in places and I just don’t see this being an ideal Cheltenham prep even if he wins.
You would ideally want an easy pop round to restore confidence but how likely is that giving weight away in that type of ground?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Quite impressive, but what did he beat despite giving that much away?
Anyway his jumping was a lot better than two weeks ago. Good decision and very informative for the punter.Indeed. Just one problem. I had no idea which horse I was going to back for the QM but had just about ruled SDG out. Now I’m back from Square 2 to Square 1
Superb from Sire De Grugy. Whether one or two of the rivals didn’t run to form is open to question, but picking holes in horses who win handicaps from 172 isn’t clever.
I’ve taken WH’s top price 9/2 and he’s my Champion Chase horse now.
SDG not only back to his best, but possibly better than ever.
I think this might be another Holywell moment. Hard to believe he was remotely near his best. Far West didn’t go a yard. Having said that this year’s Champion Chase doesn’t look much better than a glorified handicap so he might not need to reproduce last year to get involved.
I also think that the repeat of last years performance would see him go very, very close again. Though he didn’t beat too much today and probably Far West ran below par, he was almost cantering into the front and not stopping while running off 172 in a handicap.
Still the race remains an open one, but you have to thank connections again for sending him out today and not letting us in the dark about the wellbeing of the horse.
Well done to Gary Moore and his team!!!!No reason to suppose the runner up has not run his race and Sire De Grugy has run off 172 and won by SEVEN lengths.
This horse has never got the credit he deserves due to operating in the shadow of Sprinter Sacre (now not the great horse he was), but for me Sire De Grugy goes to Cheltenham with a favourite’s chance.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The big question for me was how close the rank outsider would have finished if he hadn’t been a stone out of the handicap?
Rated 20 lbs below runner up Grey Gold, Mister Grez was only getting 6lbs before his rider’s claim kicked in, and you have to believe he would have finished second today had he been in the handicap proper.
Jim McGrath was keen to state that you have to believe in the handicap system but there are plenty of times when it doesn’t work out that way and, 4 runner races where a rank outsider finishes closer than you think and one of the fancied ones runs a stinker would be the type of race you might not want to put the mortgage on working out well in future races.
Nice to see him jump better today but I’m keeping my feet on the ground regarding Cheltenham and am still puzzled why it took the stable so long to commit to this race after having said they would make their mind up one way ot the other on Tuesday and then leaving it another couple of days before deciding.
It’s sods law that he was my nap last time but went unbacked this time, along with two other of today’s tips, who both won at 20/1 and 10/1 advised odds.
"And, always look on the bright side of life….."
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
SDG not only back to his best, but possibly better than ever.
I think this might be another Holywell moment. Hard to believe he was remotely near his best. Far West didn’t go a yard. Having said that this year’s Champion Chase doesn’t look much better than a glorified handicap so he might not need to reproduce last year to get involved.
When there are not many horses to judge a race by it is obviously impossible to be as certain of improvement than it would be with a big field. But that is exactly the same with a small field conditions race. In Sprinter Sacre’s Champion Chase when he beat Sizing Europe by 19 lengths with 6 back to Wishful Thinking; despite the 7 runner race only 3 (including winner) ran anywhere near form. Do you not believe in handicapping Stilvi? Far West ran badly, so what?
If both Grey Gold and Mister Grez were well below their best then Sire De Grugy may not be better or even the same as he was last year. But what is the evidence? With all the times at Chepstow compared to Racing Post Standard Times… The races were:
43 seconds slow (class 4) winner off 11-03 2m4f maiden hurdle
52 seconds slow (class 3) 11-03 3m limited handicap chase
31 seconds slow (class 3) 11-02 2m110yrds handicap hurdle
20 seconds slow (class 2) 11-12 2m110yrds hancicap chase
48 seconds slow (class 2) 11-03 3m handicap hurdle
31 seconds slow (class 5) 10-07 2m110yrds handicap chase
33 seconds slow (class 6) 11-00 2m110yrds bumperDon’t expect all Chepstow races to be truly run, can expect longer races to be further behind standard (on a soft surface) and lesser grades to be slower. So it is not as easy as comparing straight numbers. But even so, Sprinter Sacre carried 9 lbs+ more than any other winner and… If we were to totally ignore SDG – Grey Gold put up a time you’d roughly expect of a horse somewhere near to his 152 rating racing off 10-06.
On the book; with Grey Gold getting 20 lbs and beaten 7 lengths (in all a 27 lbs beating)… With SDG on 172 going in to the race and Grey Gold 152; (152 + 27 = 179) so the latter would need to be more than 7 lbs below his 152 rating for SDG to also be below form. Yes, Grey Gold was possibly a few pounds below his best, but very much doubt it was as much as 7 lbs… And those calculations don’t take in to account ease of victory, Sire De Grugy could have won by further than 7 lengths if given a hard race.
Of course it is not easy to give a rating; but imo it can be rated at least as good as his best and imo best at this stage (remembering we need to rate SDG for Cheltenham) to give the horse credit for – say an improvement of a couple of pounds.
Value Is EverythingGinger, I’m in a tiny minority, here, and on twitter earlier today (I’ve posted about it on the QM page in the festival thread).
I very much doubt he could have won by much more today – even a length or two. I thought he finished really tired and under pretty vigorous riding could put no more distance between himself and Grey Gold in the last 150/200 yards.
He won and won well. But to my eye, the old sparkle has gone.
Everyone has their own way of judging performance but times on duff Chepstow ground is about the last thing I would be considering.
Great run today. I was impressed by the leaps he put in near the end, suggesting plenty oomph still remained in th tank. He will take the beating at Cheltenham I reckon.
Everyone has their own way of judging performance but times on duff Chepstow ground is about the last thing I would be considering.
imo Times make a difference because in my experience false results often happen when times are comparitively slow. It’s much easier for a horse to be flattered by its proximity.
When the time is as fast as you can expect of a horse of that quality given those conditions – then there is little doubt about the performance.
Value Is Everything
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