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On the book; with Grey Gold getting 20 lbs and beaten 7 lengths (in all a 27 lbs beating)… With SDG on 172 going in to the race and Grey Gold 152; (152 + 27 = 179) so the latter would need to be more than 7 lbs below his 152 rating for SDG to also be below form. Yes, Grey Gold was possibly a few pounds below his best, but very much doubt it was as much as 7 lbs… And those calculations don’t take in to account ease of victory, Sire De Grugy could have won by further than 7 lengths if given a hard race.
Of course it is not easy to give a rating; but imo it can be rated at least as good as his best and imo best at this stage (remembering we need to rate SDG for Cheltenham) to give the horse credit for – say an improvement of a couple of pounds.
I suspect the only horse to go up in the handicap will be the third, Mister Grez. That’s my expectation anyway, for what it’s worth.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Loved the way he jumped today but wouldn’t be too eager to back him at his current price for the Champion Chase.
Gary Moore compared Sire De Grugy’s last run at Cheltenham to his run at Aintree in 2013 when following an enforced absence he also jumped poorly finishing a well beaten 4th. He bounced back after that with a convincing win dropped in grade at Stratford, and today he has done the same putting a poor run behind him. Hats off to Moore for knowing his horse well enough to understand he needed today’s run to get him spot on for Cheltenham.
I think many people thought today’s race giving lumps of weight away on bottom ground would result in a less than satisfactory performance. However he has jumped like a stag and although he may have got tired at the end, all of the old zest was there. On better ground at Cheltenham there is every chance he will be spot on and able to give it a good go at retaining his crown.
Of course it is not easy to give a rating; but imo it can be rated at least as good as his best and imo best at this stage (remembering we need to rate SDG for Cheltenham) to give the horse credit for – say an improvement of a couple of pounds.
I suspect the only horse to go up in the handicap will be the third, Mister Grez. That’s my expectation anyway, for what it’s worth.
Suspect that is how the handicapper will see it Steve. It’s not the done thing to up Top racehorses ratings away from the obvious racecourses.
Value Is EverythingEveryone has their own way of judging performance but times on duff Chepstow ground is about the last thing I would be considering.
Going allowances at Chepstow.
Hurdles -1.32s/f (heavy)
Chase -1.02s/f (heavy)Turf going allowance table:
Firm +0.55s/f to +0.63s/f
Good/firm +0.20s/f to +0.53s/f
Good -0.25s/f to +0.18s/f
Good/soft -0.55s/f to -0.28s/f
Soft -1.00s/f to -0.58s/f
Heavy -1.58s/f to -1.03s/fSpeed figures:
Chepstow
21-Feb-15
01:55 Ugolin De Beaumont 2m4f 74
02:30 Letbeso 3m 54
03:05 Albert Bridge 2m½f 91
03:35 Sire De Grugy 2m½f 130
04:10 Virtuel D´Oudon 3m 83
04:45 Little Jimmy 2m½f 62
05:20 Ballywilliam 2m½f 80Sire De Grugy speed figures:
21Feb15 Chp 16.5Sft C2HcCh 15K 1/4 (7L, Grey Gold10-6) 5/4F 130
07Feb15 Nby 17Sft C1ChG2 29K UR/5 (Mr Mole11-6) 10/11F 0
26Apr14 San 16GS C1ChG1 71K 1/6 (3¼L, Pepite Rose11-0) 2/7F 138
12Mar14 Chl 16Gd C1ChG1 199K 1/11 (6L, Somersby11-10) 11/4F 148
18Jan14 Asc 17Hy C1ChG1 59K 1/7 (11L, Hidden Cyclone11-7) 5/4F 134
27Dec13 Kem 16Sft C1ChG2 45K 1/6 (4L, Oiseau De Nuit11-6) 4/1 122
07Dec13 San 16Gd C1ChG1 76K 1/9 (4L, Somersby11-7) 7/4J 138
17Nov13 Chl 16Gd C1ChL 39K 2/7 (3¼L, Kid Cassidy11-0) 5/6F 138
26Oct13 Chp 16.5Sft C2HcCh 16K 1/6 (11L, Majala11-1) 7/2 145National Hunt Ratings:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shar … a4db803fc9Mike.
Poor SDG – can’t believe he’s not universally appreciated by racing fans.
He puts up the best handicap performance since Denman and people want to nitpick him for not travelling well (to my eyes, he tanked along like a beast throughout) and not winning by more than 7 easy lengths under 11-12 at one of the most testing tracks in the country.
I hope he performs at Cheltenham and starts to get widespread recognition.
I thought it was a fine performance by Sire De Grugy considering the 11-12 he gave to the 10-6 Grey Gold and that the going was soft and heavy in places.
He’ll be a very hard nut to crack come Chelters!
If we assume that Mister Grez ran exactly to his 132 rating yesterday, what figure do we get for Sire De Grugy’s performance?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good weight carrying performance, and a line through Grey Gold puts him a couple of lengths in front of Dodging Bullets. Still has something to find with Mr Mole though imo.
TYF; I love this horse to bits [so much so that I need to rewatch yesterdays race as I had my hands over my eyes yesterday]. Last years QMCC was the most emotional for me since One Man won it . On top of this he does something yesterday that doesn’t happen any more ie a top class horse giving lumps of weight away in a handicap. It was very brave of his trainer to run him at Chepstow. I so want him to win at Cheltenham as he doesn’t deserve to be the horse that ‘won because SS wasn’t in the race’. Fortune favours the brave. I hope you’re wrong steeplechasing . I’ve also loved Jamie since the Fieppes Shuffle days. They deserve their glory days.
If we assume that Mister Grez ran exactly to his 132 rating yesterday, what figure do we get for Sire De Grugy’s performance?
On a strict 1 lb per length basis and (as we should) believing the jockey was equal to her 7 lb claim (ie judging it by 10-00 carried and not 9-07)…167… If not taking anything off for the jockey and calculating to 9-07…174…
But Mister Grugy had already improved to win at Bangor and Catterick this season, below form last time probably due to Racing Post’s comment "took keen hold". So prior to last time out (where he had a valid excuse) Mister Grez had been progressive. Therefore imo a probability he showed a bit of improvement again yesterday and ran to more than 132.
Value Is EverythingI hate to say this, but the horse with the best 2m form this season is Dodging Bullets. He won two proper races – the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House – in very convincing fashion. He should start favourite and not Sprinter Sacre and he shouldn’t be behind Sire de Grugy in the betting. Also Mr. Moleshould move into single digits as well. These two horses are trained by the best trainer in the sport and have won the best QMCC trials this season. I am convinced that Mr. Mole would have won just as easy as SDG did yesterday, if he were to contest that same race.
If we assume that Mister Grez ran exactly to his 132 rating yesterday, what figure do we get for Sire De Grugy’s performance?
On a strict 1 lb per length basis and (as we should) believing the jockey was equal to her 7 lb claim (ie judging it by 10-00 carried and not 9-07)…167… If not taking anything off for the jockey and calculating to 9-07…174…
But Mister Grugy had already improved to win at Bangor and Catterick this season, below form last time probably due to Racing Post’s comment "took keen hold". So prior to last time out (where he had a valid excuse) Mister Grez had been progressive. Therefore imo a probability he showed a bit of improvement again yesterday and ran to more than 132.
My own gut feeling is that Sire De Grugy has run a few pounds below his best but that’s just my opinion.
I suspect the handicapper is going to drop Grey Gold and raise Mister Grez.
I am not a big believer in small fields as a totally reliable form guide but everyone has their own preference.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Given the fact this was SDG’s first full race since last April wouldn’t you expect him to come on a few pounds for the run? That would also explain why he wasn’t pulling away on the run in as he was probably a bit tired.
I just can’t back him because of the injury lay off and the performance at Newbury. I agree that Dodging Bullets has the form in the book so he has to be favourite for me.
I hate to say this, but the horse with the best 2m form this season is Dodging Bullets. He won two proper races – the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House – in very convincing fashion. He should start favourite and not Sprinter Sacre and he shouldn’t be behind Sire de Grugy in the betting. Also Mr. Moleshould move into single digits as well. These two horses are trained by the best trainer in the sport and have won the best QMCC trials this season. I am convinced that Mr. Mole would have won just as easy as SDG did yesterday, if he were to contest that same race.
I agree.
SDG was entitled to come on for his Newbury run after a long time off but Mr Mole gave them all a decent head start. Sire de Grugy travelled extremely well yesterday and never looked in trouble compare that to Newbury where he looked to be travelling well but the difference was he was under pressure, Mr Mole passed him with ease and I’m sure the jockey of SDG would of like him to have been closer to Uxidrande or whatever his name is spelt without too much effort but for me he would of have to have worked hard to first get to the King horse and Mr Mole and second to pass them. When the race began in earnest he made the mistakes so it’s hard to tell. Cheltenham will serve up the pressure and I wouldn’t be a backer at current price from his two runs this season.Blackbeard to conquer the World
I just spent the last hour handicapping the Queen Mother chase.
I looked at each horse’s last 3 runs, and included within the handicap their best speed figure
Dodging Bullets 160
Sprinter Sacre 157
Sire De Grugy 153
Balder Succes 152
Twinlight 152
Somersby 149
Champagne Fever 148
Bright New Dawn 146
Hidden Cyclone 145
Don Cossack 145
Johns Spirit 145
Mr Mole 145
Sizing Europe 143
Croco Bay 143
Hinterland 140
Simply Ned 139
Special Tiara 139
Uxizandre 138
Savello 138
Moscow Mannon 135
Ballycasey 131
Clarcam 130
Next Sensation 125
Turban 120
Baily Green 114
Finian´s Rainbow —Mike.
For those who think the handful of naysayers are just festival ‘scrooges’, I love the horse. He won me a few quid last year. I’ve backed him ante-post for this year’s QM.
But it’s too easy as a punter to let your heart rule your head. As Stilvi said, we all interpret what happens in our own way. ‘It ain’t what they do, it’s the way that they do it’ has always proved most reliable for me.
The danger of misreading a race is always exaggerated when people want to see a particular thing happening. I thought the immediate post-race ‘celebrations’ on social media were over the top. Even the Post headlined the performance as ‘Superstar SDG’ Their first para:
SIRE DE GRUGY atoned for his Newbury mishap with an exceptional display under top weight, dispatching his three rivals with spectacular ease
Really?
He won comfortably. I was happy for him and for connections and fans. I was glad my AP bet is still alive. But that was not the horse that ripped the two-mile chase world apart last season – no way.
I’m reasonably confident that Mr Mole will prove at Cheltenham that SDG would not have won at Newbury, and I think Dodging Bullets, and maybe even S Sacre will finish in front of SDG.
As Mo said, yes, in a way I hope I’m wrong. It’s been a glorious story. He’s beautiful animal. But I think his best is behind him.
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