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“Why would Mullins send Ballyburn to the Arkle when he already has Majborough for it?”
The big Irish yards love to send a ‘team’ to run in the big races; pacemakers, etc,etc
Ballyburn does not have the pace to win an Arkle. Both Majborough and L’Eau Du Sud would beat him.
He didn’t settle the race at Leopardstown until halfway up the run in. 3 miles with an uphill finish will suit him and 3m 2f at Cheltenham in 2026 will be even better.
Terrible news, hope he makes a full recovery.
Cork
He has as much pace as Gaelic Warrior who won an Arkle easily.
I don’t think he’d beat Majborough nor do I think he’ll even run if Majborough gets there. I do think he’s a decent insurance policy at 25/1 in case Majborough gets hurt though. He’d destroy the rest imo.
Don’t forget he had Rubaud completely tailed off behind at Kempton. Rubauds not world class but clearly no mug either and Ballyburn made him look like a donkey.
Both horse with different owners too and we know Mullins doesn’t have an issue seeing his horses take each other on but I am pretty sure that long term Ballyburn has always been viewed by connections as a Gold Cup horse and with the Turners now being changed to a handicap from a G1, the 3m of the Brown Advisory is now the obvious next step after going 2m5½F last time out.
He started off over 2m3f on his chasing debut and had the Racing Post Novice Chase (2m1f) at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting not been axed (which I think still would have been a test dropping back to even that trip), we would have never seen him rerouted to Kempton’s sharp 2m trip in the first place let alone against Sir Gino, who was viewed as an able Champion Hurdle deputy for Constitution Hill.
Ballyburn won what is (in hindsight) turning out to be just an average renewal of the Gallagher Hurdle at Cheltenham last season (which was also 2m5F on soft ground and was run almost 23s slower than standard), so nothing in his form would suggest that the Arkle was ever going to be his main target when he went novice chasing.
“I am pretty sure that long term Ballyburn has always been viewed by connections as a Gold Cup horse”.
No doubt about it. He is the heir to GDC.
I will be backing him for the Gold Cup in 2026 when a market opens.
It’s highly unlikely Ballyburn runs in the arkle.
But you’d love to have some 20’s about him if he did! So why not throw a score at it!?
Very disappointing news about Sir Gino and the Arkle- but there was a certain inevitability about it. It always seems to happen to a Hendo star horse, not that there is anything more he could have done. Nonetheless we will no doubt be assailed with various half-baked conspiracy theories saying it’s all the trainers fault.
I’m not convinced Majborough is the certainty everyone will now say he is, and for me Gidleigh Park is an intriguing outsider.“Why not throw a score at it!?”
Because I don’t think he will run in the race.
It looks like the Mullins stable has decided he needed to go up in distance and that he has jumped better since he did. Why would they change his training programme now just for the sake of winning the Arkle, especially when they already have the odds on favourite for that race?
The thing that impressed me most about Majborough at Leopardstown was that when he was on a wrong stride at a fence he was very clever (especially considering his size) at fiddling and doing it quickly whilst no losing much ground……he never looked like falling.
Granted the topography of Cheltenham will present a new challenge to his jumping but he looks a slicker jumper than say L’Eau du Sud who (as Ruby pointed out on ITV) tends to jump up and over his fences rather than across them – the Warwick win is light years away from being good enough to win an Arkle and it was more than a little concerning to see how Rubaud (who forced the pace with him) was then able to close him down late on after being left behind turning for home.
The one thing L’Eau du Sud has in his favour is that he has won at the Cheltenham over the old course (very impressively on officially good ground – which may be important to him).
“The thing that impressed me most about Majborough at Leopardstown was that when he was on a wrong stride at a fence he was very clever (especially considering his size) at fiddling and doing it quickly whilst no losing much ground……he never looked like falling.”
Fully agree with that, LD. He was far from fluent, but very clever. L’Eau du Sud looks the real deal, but I think Majborough is the one with more potential.
And could there be a surprise package at double-digit odds in the Arkle? It’s not just a two-horse race, imo.Cork. Mullins must of felt at one stage he had the beating of Gino with Ballyburn at 2m?? Or else why run him at kempton?
I also think it’s unlikely he runs here. But if he does, he goes off 6/4. So to me it’s a worthwhile risk.
Real shame for the race , as for the new favourite , at 6/4 he’s one of the worst value favourite in my eyes , I think he’s an accident waiting to happen , this is a bit chance for Skelton to win a real Cheltenham prize
Honestly if I were wealthy I would NEVER have a horse with Henderson.Far too much drama surrounds that man.
As for out for the season.Remember Binocular.Seemingly at grass at his owners.Then won the Champion Hurdle.
I’ve said it before Hendo is the victim of social media by feeling the need to quote on it when what he actually needs to do is shut his mouth.
The more I know the less I understand.
It seems as though there’s lots of excuses for Majborough’s jumping and none made for L’Eau Du Sud’s. So I’ll redress the balance a bit.
Was Ruby talking about L’Eau Du Sud at Sandown or about all his other races?
If his other races then he’s simply wrong. Seems to me LDS may well be better jumping fences on a left-handed track… Raced 11 times in Britain, only twice right-handed… And yet even at a course that probably didn’t suit him – right-handed Sandown – beat Touch Me Not at level weights by 3 3/4 lengths.Majborough was getting 2 lbs when beating Touch Me Not by 9 lengths – weight for age which he will not get at Cheltenham. So even judged on LDS’s right-handed form (where he didn’t jump as well as when racing left) there is only just over three lengths between them.
At Warwick LDS faced 149 rated Hurdler Rubaud who may well have run to that rating over fences… And LDS was giving Rubaud 5 lbs. Even a bare 1 length verdict puts LDS on 155… The time on soft ground was only 5.8 seconds slower than Racing Post Standard, with all the other races more than 15 seconds slow. Even by allowing for it being over the minimum trip and the lesser ability of other races on the card; this was a fast time… And the way LDS went clear – increasing an already strong pace too soon – before having his winning margin reduced only late… Suggests LDS is quite a bit better than the winning distance.
L’Eau Du Sud and Majborough are both overall sound jumpers. But the latter has front run on both his chase starts so far, which is highly unusual for a JP horse unless they have to in order to produce their bests. Ile Atlantique had produced his best from the front, but from the start was never allowed to take on his stablemate up front. There is currently quite a lot of pace in the Arkle. Majborough has made small mistakes racing on his own. Whether he’ll be able to jump as well in a race where he has other horses upsides – remains to be seen.
Majborough should be favourite, but his form as it stands has imo got fewer pounds in hand than the betting suggests.
Value Is EverythingGinge – it was at Sandown where Ruby picked out several instances that he was regularly picking his front feet up well above the fences – he wasn’t implying that he was a bad jumper just that for 2m chasers you ideally need them to be faster/slicker and flick across the top of a fence (similar to what top 2m hurdlers do) rather than giving fences daylight when jumping them. To be fair though after the Warwick run he did say his jumping was better.
Rubaud & LDS did take each other on from the start and went at it along that stretch of fences which would likely be the reason for the faster time (relatively speaking). It was partly that reason why I didn’t expect Rubaud to claw back a lot of the distance he lost when LDS kicked on before the home turn so I would have expected LDS to beat him a bit easier than he did but maybe Skelton tactically was a bit over eager in kicking on when he did and that played a part in the horse getting tired close home and the much reduced winning distance.
Skelton had to get pretty serious with LDS to beat Touch Me Not whereas Majborough barely had to be ridden at all to beat him 9L – at Fairyhouse on his debut it was noted that Majborough jumped to his left on occasions so he might also prefer going left handed – I do think Majborough looks the classier individual of the two at this stage and I think he might also be better suited if someone else makes the running.
Cider – the reason Ballyburn went to Kempton was because the Racing Post Novice Chase over 2m1f at Leopardstown over Christmas was axed from the programme and they wanted to get another race into him before the DRF, personally I don’t think they honestly thought that he would be able to beat Sir Gino over 2m at Kempton (unless his jumping was a bit novicey and let him down) as he clearly is the far quicker of the two horses.
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