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The strongest argument against running Sir Gino in the Arkle, is that no 5-y-old has won the race since the weight for age allowance they used to get was withdrawn in 2008.
Sir Gino gets a 6lbs age allowance from Ballyburn if they meet on Friday, but that’s not the case in March.
And as he’s an April foal, Sir Gino won’t even really be five years old when the Arkle is run.
If chasing is chosen, then logically (not a Henderson strong point), he could run in the Arkle on the basis that if he was beaten, he could be put away and retain his novice status for next season. Of course that would mean losing any chase he ran in prior to Cheltenham. But after Friday, there are only two 2M novice chases run in this country before mid March. Both are Grade 2 races, at Windsor in January and Warwick in February.
The Windsor race is one that has been transferred from Doncaster.
I wonder how many 5 yr olds have actually attempted to win the Arkle in the first place since that change? I also doubt many (if any) of them would have come with his reputation and credentials from hurdling.
If they stick to hurdles and chuck him in the Champion Hurdle he is likely only going to have one run before the Festival anyway and I feel it would be somewhat of a wasted year if they are going chasing next season regardless.
Christmas will likely (fingers crossed) clearly up a lot of if, buts and maybes as to what Festival race he will be going for but pretty much all of that depends on CH.
“I wonder how many 5 yr olds have actually attempted to win the Arkle in the first place since that change?”
From when the age allowance was no more, they are 0/16 in the race.
Well as the saying goes ‘there is always an exception to the rule’.
His jumping at Newcastle very much looked like that of a horse that had been schooling a lot over fences – if they stick to hurdling with him I don’t think having potentially only one more run before the Champion Hurdle will gain him anywhere near enough experience for him to be slick enough at his hurdles to cope with very experienced quick hurdlers and as we also know 5 yr olds don’t fare well in it (only 2 winners since See You Then in 1985).
Whilst he was a French recuit and won a Listed 3yr old hurdle before coming to UK he still only has 5 lifetime runs to his name (ironically that is only 3 less than Constitution Hill who is 3 years his senior) so he is very short on experience full stop regardless of what route he does go down although if he goes chasing he might end up in an Arkle against horse that have had a similar amount of experience over fences (i.e. a couple of runs beforehand).
I feel that if Constitution Hill wins the Christmas Hurdle, Sir Gino will go down the Arkle route.
Should Constitution Hill run poorly in the Christmas Hurdle, then I have a sneaking suspicion that Henderson may well put both horses in the Champion Hurdle as a two-pronged attack.I think they are hoping for a definitive enough run from CH so that they can send him for the Champion (might they even consider another run inbetween Christmas and the Festival?) and let SG go to the Arkle as their preferred option.
If CH gets comprehensively beaten (i.e. you can’t excuse it by simply saying that he badly needed the run) then I am not sure where they go with him after…..retirement????
but SG will almost certainly have to be redirected to the Champion unless the Donnelly’s veto that due to already having State Man (assuming he does what he normally does at Leopardstown) as their main chance.The scenario that will likely cause the biggest headache is the one where CH runs an ok race and gets beat by a distance where you can argue ‘well he had an interupted prep for the race following a year of the track’…….will that see them forced into entering both of them for the Champion, which I think is the last thing Hendo wants to do?
They’ll excuse me if I dont take the 5/1 on Sir Gino in the Arkle, seeing as I
haven’t seen him jump a fence and he may not be going chasing anyway. 5/1? no
thank you sir.Henderson has bemoaned the lack of races for his novice chases all season. Sir Gino is the most high profile of the lot and yet here he is making his debut over fences on the 27th December. Cant see how he gets the runs in him between now and March to be ready for an Arkle, although arguably, if he beats Ballyburn first time out you could say he’s ready now.
There’s still the Kingmaker at Warwick if he needs another run before the Arkle.
Any by other trainer would also consider the DRF for the Irish Arkle, especially if the horse has already beaten Ballyburn, but we all know Henderson won’t cross the Irish Sea these days.
The Lightning Novice Chase is another option and should be around 3 weeks after Kempton so that would leave him spot on for the Arkle. I’m hoping he get’s around safe and sound on Friday as took a chance a while back and doubled him and CH for the Champion Hurdle and Arkle. 9/2 and 8/1.
Nicky Henderson entirely vindicated this Christmas.
Brilliant first run over fences by Sir Gino.
Even though am sure Ballyburn did not give his running, I doubt he’d have matched SG even at his very best.Value Is EverythingSir Gino’s engine is ridiculous. He ballooned several fences today, yet has still won without coming off the bridle.
Sure, a sharp two miles was never going to see Ballyburn at his best, and he had to concede weight to his rival, but Sir Gino looks an absolutely top-class two mile chaser in the making, following in the footsteps of Sprinter Sacre, Altior and Shishkin for Seven Barrows.
I doubt Ballyburn has run much below form. He was well clear of the Nicholls horse (which is no mug) when it fell at the last.
Ballyburn doesn’t look like he has the pace for two miles. I wasn’t particularly impressed by his jumping either, here or on debut. Perhaps McNae’s RaceIQ data might prove useful for once.
I believe Ballyburn has shortened for the Brown Advisory but I would not be in a hurry to back him.
BTW, all the comparisons with Sprinter Sacre are spurious at best.
I’ve no doubt that Sir Gino has a comparable engine, but his jumping isn’t in anywhere near the same class (yet) as that of his illustrious predecessor.
Sprinter’s performance in this very same race was something else.
Ballyburn didn’t jump as well as he did on debut and more than that, kept jumping left. Negative for going up in trip (and Cheltenham prospects) would also be how he was on his toes in the prelims.
Value Is Everything
but SG will almost certainly have to be redirected to the Champion unless the Donnelly’s veto that due to already having State Man (assuming he does what he normally does at Leopardstown) as their main chance.
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