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Simon Rowlands explains what we can learn from Cape Blanco’s winning performance at Leopardstown. Meanwhile, a jockey substitution highlights the need for a new a law and race distances get shorter at Haydock.
"Cape Blanco was best equipped to cope and ended up doing to his opponents something like what Harbinger had done to him the time before at Ascot."
I had intended moving on from sectionals this week but simply could not pass over an opportunity to remark upon those from Leopardstown at the weekend.When a horse makes all and is unchallenged, as Cape Blanco was in the Irish Champion Stakes, it is natural to wonder whether they have been flattered. Such speculation was certainly in evidence on the Betfair Forum after Saturday’s race. I even read somewhere that the winner had "quickened off a slow pace".
Not so.
The history books will show that Cape Blanco ran the mile-and-a-quarter of Leopardstown’s outer track 0.01 sec faster than had Sea The Stars on slightly softer going 12 months before. But the near-identical times were achieved in hugely different fashions.
Cape Blanco got to the two-furlong marker about 2.6 sec quicker than had Sea The Stars, from which it follows that he ran the final quarter-of-a-mile in the same sort of time longer. That equates to nearly 15 lengths at the speeds the horses were travelling and is a huge difference over such a short distance.
Not only did Cape Blanco run the closing stages markedly slower than Sea The Stars, he ran it slower than all the other winners on Saturday’s card, which included two-year-old races and handicaps. And he did this because he had set such a searching pace earlier on.
Cape Blanco’s finishing speed was little more than 90% of his average speed, when something like 98% would have been optimum given the state of the ground, and it says something for him that his overall time was respectable.
Among the excuses made for Rip Van Winkle, who never got in a blow in second, was that he was unable to quicken late on the rain-softened ground. That is nonsense. He did not need to quicken, just to slow less. But he couldn’t.
You get pace profiles like this over jumps from time to time, but seldom on the Flat unless the ground is genuinely deep. When a horse goes as hard up front as did Cape Blanco, he either has to be ignored or he takes those who chase him out of their comfort zones also.
There are reasons to believe that most or all of those behind Cape Blanco were a bit below their best, but that might be in no small part because of how the race was run. Cape Blanco was best equipped to cope and ended up doing to them something like what Harbinger had done to him the time before at Ascot.
Doubts about the form of the beaten horses should not blind onlookers to the quality of performance put up by the winners in either instance.
Simon write for betfair betting. What do you make of his Timing which are accurate i assume….Great analysis
Was there an error on the part of the other jockeys? Did they run an ill-judged pace, allowing Cape Blanco too much of a lead which, even though his finishing fraction was relatively slow, they were too far behind to take advantage of?
In short, could they have over-turned the deficit if they’d run faster earlier and not had so much to do?
Interesting read. I thought the RPR of 127 on the low side, the yardstick boys will be using Beethoven I suppose. Still wondering what Timeform awarded the performance?
132 Cav
CAPE BLANCO (IRE) was left alone in front but still set a searching pace, kicking again turning for home before tying up a little late on, and this has to go down as a high-class performance in its own right (for all that some of his rivals probably were not at their very best), one which compares favourably to those put up by his trainer’s 4 other winners of this race in the past decade, namely Dylan Thomas (2), Oratario and High Chaparral; Cape Blanco probably improved at least a few lengths from Ascot but did no harm whatsoever to the form of that race even so, and he now has a host of options before the end of the year, the Champion Stakes at Newmarket at this trip an obvious one.
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Just my opinion, but horses who get an easy lead are often overrated, regardless of how fast they ran. They are able to run the whole race at their own optimum pace, without ever being asked any other question than how fast can they go unhindered.
Cape Blanco did a ‘Hawk Wing’ on Saturday, and like that horse (and a great many similar) is unlikely to replicate that run, or get near that rating, at any other time in his career.RH – Isn’t Mr Rowlands providing fairly concrete evidence that that wasn’t the case with Cape Blanco on Saturday?? (i.e he didn’t run an "efficient" race from the front that might flatter him relative to the others)
I have to admit, when I was watching the race I thought Cape Blanco had gone off way too fast and was almost being used as a sacrifical lamb for RVW.
The sectionals seem to back that up that theory to a certain extent – BUT – Cape Blanco was able to keep going well enough and the others couldn’t get near him….
A very hard race to analyse…
I gather from what he’s saying is that:
If Cape Blanco ran his own race exactly the way he did on the day and under the conditions, there is nothing that any of the other horses could have done to beat him. Ignore him and he wont come back. Chase him and finish slower than CB did. No win situation.
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I don’t know that it’s really hard to analyse.
Funny going, holding in places, soft or good in others.
Two horses in RVW and Twice Over who’d not got over York. You’d guess we’ve seen the best of both of them now. Beethoven finishing about where you’d expect relative to Cape Blanco. Sea Lord closer than you’d have expected (only running to give Dubai some sort of hand in the race). Famous Name not able to beat up on better-class animals.
Cape Blanco – went off too fast, but with youth and comparative freshness on his side, managed to outlast two below par rivals of similar quality.
If RVW could have lain up closer, Murtagh would have had him there. He was going at his natural pace, and finished as close as he could have done on the day, and given the way the race was run. Cape Blanco was flattered by the distance, like Harbinger in the KG and Workforce in the Derby. But in all three cases the right horse won. All three are good horses, none of them are champions.
I find it hard to see how CB can be flattered by the winning distance if the sectionals say he has gone off (significantly) too fast.
That is the paradox here.
Agreed TDK,
The sectionals show that had CB made a slightly slower pace (even fractions) he would’ve won by further. What Pinza may be suggesting is he was flattered by the distances back to RVW and TO, as they did not run to form.Should not detract from the fact Cape Blanco put up a remarkable performance. One which RVW would’ve stuggled to beat at his very best.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
RH – Isn’t Mr Rowlands providing fairly concrete evidence that that wasn’t the case with Cape Blanco on Saturday?? (i.e he didn’t run an "efficient" race from the front that might flatter him relative to the others)
I have to admit, when I was watching the race I thought Cape Blanco had gone off way too fast and was almost being used as a sacrifical lamb for RVW.
The sectionals seem to back that up that theory to a certain extent – BUT – Cape Blanco was able to keep going well enough and the others couldn’t get near him….
A very hard race to analyse…
On the contrary TDK; as a horse that gets 12f well, had CB not set such a searching early pace (or, had he been taken on by other good horses while setting it) it is unlikely to have been his ‘optimum’, and he would have produced a more realistic rating in line with his previous form – imo, of course.
ps: I wouldn’t be writing RVW off just yet, either. Bearing in mind Coolmore is principally a breeding operation, a gp1 10f win on CB’s cv was probably more beneficial than adding another one for RVW, and might well have influenced how both horses were ridden on the day – A Breeder’s Cup win is possibly a totally different kettle of fish.
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I’m surprised some people find it inconceievable that an Irish Derby winner who also won the Dante and has finished in front of the English Derby winner twice at different distances could be good enough to win the Irish Champion Stakes.
Lol. I thought people here were knowledgable on racing.
Not only is it a tricky race to weigh up, Cape Blanco is a tricky horse to evaluate overall.
Perhaps Bigphil is right, maybe he’s been underestimated all along.
Think Pinza has it spot on.
And Cumani has it right, sectional timing/times are utterly useless. Lose yourself in time and miss the obvious imo.
I’m surprised some people find it inconceievable that an Irish Derby winner who also won the Dante and has finished in front of the English Derby winner twice at different distances could be good enough to win the Irish Champion Stakes.
Lol. I thought people here were knowledgable on racing.
I know I didn’t say that so who are you suggesting is underestimating him?
Simon Rowlands explains what we can learn from Cape Blanco’s winning performance at Leopardstown. Meanwhile, a jockey substitution highlights the need for a new a law and race distances get shorter at Haydock.
"Cape Blanco was best equipped to cope and ended up doing to his opponents something like what Harbinger had done to him the time before at Ascot."
I had intended moving on from sectionals this week but simply could not pass over an opportunity to remark upon those from Leopardstown at the weekend.When a horse makes all and is unchallenged, as Cape Blanco was in the Irish Champion Stakes, it is natural to wonder whether they have been flattered. Such speculation was certainly in evidence on the Betfair Forum after Saturday’s race. I even read somewhere that the winner had "quickened off a slow pace".
Not so.
The history books will show that Cape Blanco ran the mile-and-a-quarter of Leopardstown’s outer track 0.01 sec faster than had Sea The Stars on slightly softer going 12 months before. But the near-identical times were achieved in hugely different fashions.
Cape Blanco got to the two-furlong marker about 2.6 sec quicker than had Sea The Stars, from which it follows that he ran the final quarter-of-a-mile in the same sort of time longer. That equates to nearly 15 lengths at the speeds the horses were travelling and is a huge difference over such a short distance.
Not only did Cape Blanco run the closing stages markedly slower than Sea The Stars, he ran it slower than all the other winners on Saturday’s card, which included two-year-old races and handicaps. And he did this because he had set such a searching pace earlier on.
Cape Blanco’s finishing speed was little more than 90% of his average speed, when something like 98% would have been optimum given the state of the ground, and it says something for him that his overall time was respectable.
Among the excuses made for Rip Van Winkle, who never got in a blow in second, was that he was unable to quicken late on the rain-softened ground. That is nonsense. He did not need to quicken, just to slow less. But he couldn’t.
You get pace profiles like this over jumps from time to time, but seldom on the Flat unless the ground is genuinely deep. When a horse goes as hard up front as did Cape Blanco, he either has to be ignored or he takes those who chase him out of their comfort zones also.
There are reasons to believe that most or all of those behind Cape Blanco were a bit below their best, but that might be in no small part because of how the race was run. Cape Blanco was best equipped to cope and ended up doing to them something like what Harbinger had done to him the time before at Ascot.
Doubts about the form of the beaten horses should not blind onlookers to the quality of performance put up by the winners in either instance.
Simon write for betfair betting. What do you make of his Timing which are accurate i assume….Great analysis
What your saying is "the horse is different class" Class horses are quicker away and finish slower.
The two days in question 5th September 2009 and 4th September 2010 looking at the times ,I would say it might of been a lot slower for sea of the stars, but you will never find out for sure !!
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