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Dear Betlarge
I somehow think you are swerving the point
until you have Pmu
the racing here will be running for peanuts , betfair will be the only platform left for horse players ….a load of punters will be relegated to the I cant be bothered section and just give up
Its only a question of time before Betfair punters become disenfranchised …playing on their phones in running and paying 10 per cent commission …
Meanwhile on a Sunday in Paris, A trotting track can offer a million euros in prizes on a card comprising 9 races ….this is a sport that most guys view as massively inferior to ours , but therin lies the rub ….we are so far behind the rest of the racing world , its beyond embarrassing
It (arbing and laying) arguably calls for a deal more skill than making a profit from inflated over-round books.
OK – no bookie is going to consistently lay to people scalping prices but it is the way they position it that rankles, as if there is something immoral about it. Pot and kettle job there.
They are not in competition with punters- they have punters over a barrel at every turn – they are in competition with each other, hence the frenetic marketing and land-grabbing for mug accounts.
It (arbing and laying) arguably calls for a deal more skill than making a profit from inflated over-round books.
OK – no bookie is going to consistently lay to people scalping prices but it is the way they position it that rankles, as if there is something immoral about it. Pot and kettle job there.
They are not in competition with punters- they have punters over a barrel at every turn – they are in competition with each other, hence the frenetic marketing and land-grabbing for mug accounts.
Dear Betlarge
I somehow think you are swerving the point
until you have Pmu
the racing here will be running for peanuts , betfair will be the only platform left for horse players ….a load of punters will be relegated to the I cant be bothered section and just give up
Its only a question of time before Betfair punters become disenfranchised …playing on their phones in running and paying 10 per cent commission …
Meanwhile on a Sunday in Paris, A trotting track can offer a million euros in prizes on a card comprising 9 races ….this is a sport that most guys view as massively inferior to ours , but therin lies the rub ….we are so far behind the rest of the racing world , its beyond embarrassing
Well, I’m not swerving the point about a PMU, I was discussing the thread as titled.
However, I do think a PMU would be a financial disaster for the UK. The most popular bet in the UK is the win single. The absurdity of betting win singles into PMU pools is self-evident. The very act of placing your bet (at odds unknown, of course) helps to lower the odds you receive. You have literally no chance of making a profit.
All the other popular UK bets – doubles, trixies, yankees, canadians, patents, flags etc etc – would all be completely unavailable on a PMU. The only popular bets available as we know them would be the Scoop6 and Placepot (and they’re not that popular).
Instead, we would be encouraged to bet on Tierces, Quintes, Pick5’s etc etc of which there is currently zero take-up in this country. Of course bookmakers would still be offering all the bets that make up 99% of our business – but on other sports instead of racing.
If we managed to retain 10% of our current funding and a similar percentage of the game’s off-course following, I’d be highly impressed.
Mike
betlarge,
maybe the longtime frozen state of PMU in GB has conditioned your thinking.
your above understanding of, and objections to, PMU seem to speak to an unawareness of the way PMU operates elsewhere – and could, but for vested interests, also operate in GB (when does Fred’s monopoly expire?).
for example,
elsewhere, single-pool wagering and the likes of Longitude are on the way to allowing a punter to write his own bet, way beyond the canadians, dundee shuffles, etc decided on by bookies:
http://racing.scmp.com/freeservice/news … 40508a.asp
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 8&p=485273single-pool means the bet-type chosen doesn’t matter.
elsewhere, as to take-out percentage of the PMU operator, that is the first rather than the final word on take-out.
outside GB tote agents compete by offering rebates so that eg a GBP 5000 to 1000 bet can be yours for 900 quid:
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 2&p=547562
betfair was a great idea until introducing a private tax charge of 60 per cent (or whatever it is) on winners through the premium charge.
that apart, what exactly has been new in GB betting offerings on horses in the past several decades ? hasn’t it just stood still ?
The Irish Derby would make a good race for PMU betting with 9/10ths of the field coupled.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
PMUs don’t have to couple – HK doesn’t.
nor, i believe, GB ?
back to thread title: was it Clare-type comments that Betfair used to justify its premium charge?
This what Clare was quoted as saying in the article in the Post on Friday:
What has changed in the last decade is the arrival of a new breed of punter who use the fluid nature of exchange prices to pinpoint fixed-odds prices with bookmakers that have effectively suddenly become unprofitable or overbroke.
"This betting strategy requires no skill or knowledge, and will guarantee a certain profit over time, and every day tens of thousands of individuals are trying to pick off bookmakers in this way.
"However, it is no surprise that there isn’t a bookmaker in the world who won’t heavily restrict such customers, and they are easy to identify as they are all following exactly the same parasitic strategy.
If bookmakers submit their prices to odds-checker etc then punters reading that will naturally go for the best price on offer. It is the bookmaker offering the price. These punters are not "arbers" – just shoppers. Less than 10% of horseracing punters bet on Betfair in any case and they would have to risk not getting the bookmaker part of any "arb" actually laid or the price dropping before the bet was approved. There is absolutely no guarantee of profit. A huge risk and effort for an unlikely few pennies. I would be surprised if Corals can provide hard evidence of more than a handful of these "easily identified" "arber" attempts in the last decade. In any case how can any single bet make a race over-broke or unprofitable? – SC does not seem to have even the most basic clue as to how bookmaking works.
Not that bookmakers both on course and in the offices are not glued to Betfair prices – they are the ones "arbing" in £thousands each race. Their computerisation adjusts in split seconds to whatever Betfair are offering and their individual liabilities on the events – so the actual development is that there is now no chance of "arbing" – that is unless they actually want to lay at higher prices to balance books or because they think they know the horse will lose.
Our research is that some 60% of horseracing bets are heavily knocked back or reduced to pennies which is much the same as refusal.
No "arbs" involved – just trying to put a bet on at the price the bookmaker has decided he is offering.However, I do think a PMU would be a financial disaster for the UK. The most popular bet in the UK is the win single. The absurdity of betting win singles into PMU pools is self-evident. The very act of placing your bet (at odds unknown, of course) helps to lower the odds you receive. You have literally no chance of making a profit.
Mike
As you say the win single is the most popular bet in the UK and surely there is no better bet for a PMU than a win single?
If anyone places a bet now mid morning you don’t know what odds you will get unless taking a price, which often you can’t and even then I would have thought there’s a fair chance the price will be bigger by racetime.
As we know the vast majority of betting on a race is done in the 5 or 10 mins before a race by which time we would have large pools, in which you would have an excellent idea what price you would be getting.
If you put a lot of money on one horse you should receive lower odds, it’s called market forces.The size of stake for the vast majority of punters would make little difference to the price in the few minutes prior to the race, in decent sized pools.
What a PMU would also eliminate would be the same sort of skulldugery some have accused James Best and others of in recent times.
Could Barney Curley have succeeded in his coups under a PMU system?
Not least it would also eliminate the blatant manipulation of prices by parasitic bookmakers, some may even describe it as licensed corruption particularly at evening all weather meetings.
Quite astonishing ignorance from BetLarge. The Stockholm Syndrome really does run very deep among the fixed-odds win single spot bettors in this country.
Thankfully, more and more punters are ignoring the propaganda peddled by those proffering the awful fixed-odds product in this country and moving towards the demonstrably superior tote option. That’s why the fastest growing bets in the country are bets like the placepot and trifecta, where turnover has grown exponentially since the turn of the century, while bookie betting on horse racing has stood still at best and appears to be entering reverse thrust.
It’s only a matter of time before the only place you will be able to find a fixed odds win single horse punter will be in a museum exhibit. They’re going the way of the dodo.
betlarge,
maybe the longtime frozen state of PMU in GB has conditioned your thinking.
Not at all, my comparison was with the very vibrant French PMU which was the subject of the conversation. The overwhelming majority of bets the public enjoys having are unavailable on it.
I read the two pieces supplied but don’t see their relevance? The first seemed to be some bet-combining software that isn’t in use yet, the second about an illegal Tote agent operation.
Mike
If bookmakers submit their prices to odds-checker etc then punters reading that will naturally go for the best price on offer.
Yes. It’s seems ridiculous that bookmakers willingly advertise their prices on an odds-comparison site then get uptight when punters compare prices!
Mike
As you say the win single is the most popular bet in the UK and surely there is no better bet for a PMU than a win single?
Then bet your singles on The Tote. You can do for every race, every day.
Mike
"
That’s why the fastest growing bets in the country are bets like the placepot and trifecta, where turnover has grown exponentially since the turn of the century….
"
Any numbers on this exponential growth?
Quite astonishing ignorance from BetLarge.
Glenn, you consistently peddle the line about how ignorant everyone is apart from yourself. You sneer at everyone who disagrees with you. You don’t sound like a very nice person to me.
Mike
At this point in the thread I think it’s time to float once again the oft-mooted (on TRF) idea of a ‘Tote Betting Exchange’ model run by and run for UK Racing
Eff-off Turf Accountant we don’t need you or your ‘levy’
It all seems so very simple; or are Exchanges too now going the way of the dodo
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