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Hi All,
Any guidance for this race at Chepstow on Saturday? I’m in a Punters Club and this weekend is my week. This looks like one of the only good races on this weekend on either side of the Irish Sea.
Wholestone 5/1
Bags Groove 6/1
Alary 7/1
Golden Birthday 8/112/1 bar
Anyone any opinions on this?
Thanks in advance
Alary isa very interesting entrant after being lowered 4 lbs after a series of horror runs last season. Tizzard did not exactly hide his admiration for the horse when he acquired him and was pitched in some hot races, but perhaps after a summer of schooling etc he could be a different proposition now.
Not an original view but i couldnt have alary because of how he performed last seasn, bags groove has plenty to find on ratings/lack of a run, 4th run in a month for golden birthday, so he should be atleast fit
But if wholestone is fit and not too badly in need of a run i think he will win,But 6/1 is short enough at this time of the season with so many iffs around fitness
At the prices id probably back souriyan (20/1)
Sam Spinner is incredibly well-handicapped, isn’t he.
Bit of a lazy ‘Northern’ price from the wallahs at 20/1 imo. He’s my first dart at the race.
Jacob is down to ride El Terremoto in the Post which suggests Wholestone will not run.
Hobbs has won this three times since 2005 and he has the progressive Louis’ Vac Pouch in with 10.8 at the moment (Old Guard is top weight).
LVP is 5, the age which has the best record in this in the past 20 years at a 14% strike rate from a decent representation (7/51)
LVP is currently 16s. I’ll wait and see if he gets jocked up.
Enjoy your day at Chepstow. Haven’t been there for 30 years and am just sobering up now. Was in a bookmaker’s box. We staggered from there into town. After a while I felt time was running out and went to the bar and asked, ‘Is it last orders?’
Barman: ‘It’s only twenty past seven’
Tizzard said a lot of his horses weren’t right when Alary arrived and he should also be better now he has acclimatised. I do hope the horse comes good this season.
Very very strong entry this year, and I’d agree with Soldier that Sam Spinner is a silly price at 20’s. He’s done very little wrong, but there are so many dangers, I’ll wait till final decs.
Great race for this stage of the season, and I genuinely shortlisted eleven for it, so madness to have a go just now.
Can’t let Court Minstrel go without a mention though. Won this 2 years ago, off of a much higher mark, ran very well in October last year at Kempton, and generally doesn’t seem to be regressing too much either. He’s fair ew value I reckon at 16’s.
I have backed RIVER FROST in this at 10/1 because he could still be improving and Barry has a pretty good record on him!
This Louis Vac Pouch is way too big at 25/1 on his trainer’s record alone – 3 wins and two runner ups since 2005. That’s aside from him being a progressive young horse who’s also in the favoured age group at 5 profile-wise. He’s twice the price he should be.
I am going to back it now Joe purely on your say so!! LOL
I’ll sleep peacefully in my bed, Raymo…then move house if he gets stuffed!
I don’t fancy Louis Vac Pouch but whatever happens he will remain the best horse in history named after a domestic appliance refill.
I’ve bet Sam Spinner at 16’s, 5 Places, he is my main fancy, he’s done plenty right, looks well treated on what he’s achieved, and as Soldier says, his price just might be based on the yard, rather than the horses ability. Also went with Court Minstrel at the same odds win only for the reasons given earlier.
I would bet Alary, but as I’ve had a swing at him on my Gold Cup Book, any sign that he actually has ability today, will do for me.
Of the rest, well most of my original shortlist are still there. I think that the sensible approach to take with Old Guard is that he’s there to keep the weights down for his stablemate, but I like situations like this, and I just wonder if he’ll actually be the yards main hope. The ability was there, and that ability would be more than enough to take this at an incredible 33’s, that’s very appealing with 5 places on offer.
Sumkindofking and Doesyourdogbite would be on recovery missions, but they did enough last year to give them a chance here, while Joe’s shout for the Hobbs runner looks a fair one.
Not a race where I can really justify betting 3, but I can’t let Old Guard go unbet either
Well done, Bobby!. Good to see your old reliable horses paying off.
Raymo, LVP outran his price to be beaten two or three lengths by the look of it. Not quite good enough.
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