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If Erics Charm is ridden more positively than last time, i.e. from the very head of affairs, he’ll take some beating.
He’ll always over-pitch at a few which is part of his makeup, but i’d rather see this when a good few lengths up rather than when just off the pace as he was last time.
To see a front runner finishing the race like he did with the wrong tactics employed IMO, would have been frustrating for anyone that backed him at Sandown last time, so come on Dominic, fire him up son!
This looks even more open than the betting suggests. Lacking in horses in form and possible improvers. Had trouble forming a tissue.
Trabolgan wins if right but looking at him objectively. He’s getting on now, had plenty of problems and there must be just as big a chance something going wrong as winning. That is not to say he won’t.
the ones I like at the prices are Erics Charm 12/1, Out The Black 16/1, Lysander 28/1, Niche Market 43/1, with a saver on Alderburn 7/1 (combined price just over 85/40).
Erics Charm has not been able to dominate a race this season. Unless Fundamentalist takes him on could do so here. Is possibly a Sandown specialist but Ascot is right handed. Stable in good form.
Out The Black ran a promising race against Roll Along and Air Force One here. Often when a jockey has won a big race on a horse they keep with him through loyalty (Monkerhostin Johnson).
Lysander disappointed after a break last time but looked on the up over both hurdles and fences before that. 28/1 is too big (imo) worth chancing at the price.
Niche Market was outclassed in a Graduation chase on reappearance. It is possible he needs further (best run in 4 miler at Cheltenham) but that is to be proved. Stable in form. Again looks a little over priced at 43/1.
Alderburn ran a promising race over hurdles on reappearance and is one without too many question marks about.
Mark
20/1 winner yesterday, 43/1 winner today. Have to look out for a 66/1 winner tomorrow.
Mark
Value Is EverythingWell done Mark.
POST MORTEM
I don’t think I am paying enough attention to the going when I am analysing these races. I’m translating Oedipe’s performance on fast ground at Aintree in the Spring into expecting a similar performance on "Gd to Sft", which may be bordering on Soft.Hopefully there won’t be a similar problem next week with the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown. Soft, soft, soft all the way?
In both races I’ve analysed so far there has been a RSA winner coming back from injury which has distracted attention from other horses in the field. I suppose there’s only Denman to go, and then we can start concentrating properly!
I couldn’t get a handle on Niche Market, and consigned him to the bin. What I should have done was give him more attention and look at the race comments and details for every race he had run. On face value, by only browsing at him it was hard to get a picture of the horse because nearly all the races he had run, or at least completed, had been in small fields, and he was often outclassed and therefore beaten quite a way. Heed your own words Gerald: "don’t dismiss handicappers when they are running in a handicap".
Although Monkerhostin hadn’t run over 3m for a couple of years, he had done respectably when he had done so, and we already knew he was on a good h’cap mark as it is the same he won the Whitbread on. Ante Post favourite for the William Hill Trophy?
One the whole, I think I got a slight majority of the horses right. I thought Gungadu and Faasel would run a bit better though.
END OF POST MORTEM
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