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Great looking line up here with some of the best juveniles of 2010 lining up with one or two exceptions. If the ground comes up anything like it was this afternoon then Irish Field is the stand out pick for me. Allow me to elaborate…
Through the form lines of the Prix Morny it appears that the ground that was estimated at soft ground was revised and reestimted at good ground. That makes a rather large difference at this level, sometimes the difference between winning and getting trashed. Dream Ahead won that on his 2nd start, too early to gauge a ground preferrence. The 2nd Tin Horse won his first 2 starts on GF, got well beaten on GS behind Irish Field and then gave his Prix Morny 2nd behind Dream Ahead. Broox who finished 4th in the Morny was beaten by Irish Field on GS in the Prix Robert Papin along with Approve and Tin Horse. Other runners who appear to like soft ground Keritya and Al Aasifh ran especially badly in the Morny. My angle here is the ground obviously. IMO Dream Ahead is a class horse but if it comes up as soft as it was today then he has to prove himself all over again. Irish Field has the best ground dependant form in the book and appears to be a very attractive price.
Although I note the positive comments from the most inciteful and intelligent jockey riding ( what a trainer he is going to make!)Richard Hughes ( ‘he did something that very few 2yos have ever done the other morning’) re Strong Suit, I will never forget having my fingers burnt as a boy punter having no less than £50 on his sire Rahy in the Mill Reef Stakes god knows how many years ago only to see him beaten by soft ground…………once bitten, happy to be shy…..particularly at that price.
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The softer it is the better Dream Ahead will be, nulty.
After his victory in the Coventry Stakes, Strong Suit looked like the colt they all had to beat. However, the form of that race has been let down and it was hard not to be disappointed with his performance in Ireland. Easy ground may not suit and he faces at least one horse today that’s a grade above anything he’s come across thus far.
He’s no price, but
Dream Ahead
should win comfortably.
Some extraordinarily bullish comments after the Mill Reef about Temple Meads. I agree that Dream Ahead is the form horse and the likely winner but on the comments alone I’m going for Temple Meads. Mill Reef winners have a very good recent record.
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Is Temple Meads going to be as effective on a soft surface? I’m not so sure. In any case, I didn’t think the Middle Park was a great race; Formosina had to concede a penalty and didn’t look to enjoy the fast ground, Crown Prosecutor hasn’t gone on as once looked likely and The Paddyman already appears to have reached his level (he didn’t improve on his Richmond run and was beaten again today in a worse race).
He’s place-lay material for me.
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Dream Ahead has already won on Nottingham’s g/s, which is probably as soft as Newmarket ever gets, plus his trainer thinks he’s likely to thrive on it:
"The recent rain has been welcomed; there is no question that he will like it as he has a big knee action."
D Simcock 30/9/2010
Fair enough but he won his maiden on soft ground…Irish Field
needs
Soft ground to perform at this level. The form of that maiden is non-existant.
13/8 -v- 14/1?
Its a horse race.
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Get your drift Nulty, but – on a line through Broox – DA is already well superior, even though the ground at Deauville was probably against him.
Irish Field is racing for a different trainer now than when showing his best.
Must be going doubts over both Approve and Strong Suit, would not be at all surprised if the latter was a non-runner.
Foghorn and Samuel Morse not good enough.
Saw Al Aasifh win at Newbury on a soft surface. Looked a decent animal in the making. Always willing to forgive a poor run abroad. Godolphin must have plenty of 2 year olds to choose from. At 28/1 looks worth a speculative wager.
Had thought I’d be backing Dream Ahead as he’s the one bound to be suited by conditions. However, he’s plenty short enough at the moment. Hopefully will be able to put a saver on him if getting 7/4 or better.
Main bet is Temple Meads. Settled much better in Mill Reef. Also won Super Sprint on soft. So should act on the ground. Am concerned won’t stay 6f on it though. But at 7/2 think it’s worth finding out. Hopefully, Mullen won’t give him too much to do, turn of foot will not be as potent on this ground.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Approve,Irish Field,Samuel Morse,Al Aasifh and Foghorn Leghorn look like they are there to try and get placed in a group 1 and Approve may well be the only one capable of achieving that.
When Richard Hannon’s Strong Suit won the Coventry there was an immediate reaction in the 2,000 Guineas market but there’s always a tendancy to overrate any decent 2yo Hannon sends out.
Despite the fact the Coventry was far from being a classic renewal and he scraped home by the skin of his teeth he was made a long odds on fav for the Pheonix stakes and was duly beaten fair and square by Zoffany.
While the 2nd in that race is a nice colt he’s nothing special and no doubt he’ll run well but winning doesn’t look on the cards.
Temple Meads won really well at Newbury but even that form is a bit suspect.
Another Hannon horse the unbeaten Librano was fav but she was a bit of a surprise packet to Hannon who never rated her that highly. Came as no surprise when others improved past her. The 2nd fav was another well touted horse said to be Brian Meehans best 2yo but he’s yet to show anything other than he’s a good one to lay in.
That said, Temple Meads could do no more than win and has obvious chance but after his initial burst of speed took him clear he never capatalized on it as much as you would expect and the others were closing him down again near the finish.
About 1 1/2 furlongs out at Deauville a lot of punters who backed any one of 5 runners must have been pretty confident their horse was going to win. They all looked to be going well until William Buick swept past and immediately had them all at it.
On the head on he looked drunk 1st going one way then the other but William Buick wasn’t hard on him, let him do his thing and he won very easily.
I would expect Dream Ahead has improved for that 2nd run and he probably wouldn’t have to to beat this lot.
Dream Ahead look a class above these and a rock solid bet to take this easily.
I reckon he should be nearer 10/11 but it’s probably more down to the the race having a lot of fashionable trainers involved than the actual opposition, that the bookies are being so generous at prices ranging between 6/4-7/4.
Not my thing but the pro’s would call this a value bet if ever there was one.
Fascinating renewal this.
Dream Ahead – No need to repeat the formbook, deserves to be fav. Only negs I can see is that he looked a bit unbalanced on his debut so the dip will be interesting, he also tends to roll around a bit although better in the Morny, possible(?) traffic problems given the likely moderate pace. If I was Buick I’d pop him out handy given the soft ground. Looks the right price at around evens.
Temple Meads – Love this horse. Really tough, puts it all in, which he usually has to given he gets outpaced and is usually being asked questions well before the 2 pole. Nimble, well balanced. The only big negative today is pace. Needs to delivered late as evidenced by the defeat at York and Newmarket in soft ground strongly favours front and prominent runners. This better field might not come back to him as they have in lesser contests up to now. This reason only puts me off at the price.
Strong Suit – Lay material. Another who’ll need to be delivered late so I think the track will be against him today. Also his action suggests he’s a fast ground horse. Too short.
Approve – Must have big place claims if he can get to the front early and handles the ground. Didn’t go to Longchamp which suggests their worried about soft ground. Very tough, impressive at York when racing away from the favoured stands rail. The price factors in the ground concerns.
Irish Field – Know nothing about him. What the hell is he doing at John Hill’s was the first question, apparently he’s in transit to race in Hong Kong over the long term. Who knows? Could be anything.
The Godolphin animal looks a waste of 90 grand, 5 runner classified contests await next year, Sam Morse looks exposed and ordinary.
Foghorn Leghorn at massive odds could well get a lead and trade much shorter in running. Back to lay material if that’s your kinda thing.
2 point lay Strong Suit @ 7/2
1/2 point e/w Approve @ 12/1 (8 runners only)Dream Ahead !
I will, and for better or worse, have invested some pennies on the Simcock colt accordingly.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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Frankel and Dream Ahead, I feel like I’m being spoilt. Can’t wait for next year now lol
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Lovely big horse but I think his trainer must be wishing that it was Saamidd who was likley to run in the Dewhurst over 7f and not Frankel.
I wouldn’t fancy running him over a mile in the Racing Post as a mile might be too much of an ask at this stage.
The one advantage he has over Frankel is he still looks very green which isn’t a bad thing for a big horse. IMO his trainer should do the sensible thing and rough him off and have a crack at the 2000 Guineas next year.
Frankel hasn’t looked green in his races and looks like a mature 3yo in a 2yo’s body.
Henry has said he still has a lot of improvement in him but you can bet he had his fingers crossed behind his back during that interview.
Gawd forbid, but there’s always the chance he won’t develop as normal and it would make more sense to wait until next year to take him on.
If you are in the Frankel camp I wouldn’t be jumping ship just yet. Clearly cut in the ground suits Dream Ahead pretty well. Perhaps he was the only runner today who relished the ground. It was a day of wide margin winners. It is no certainty that he will get the extra two furlongs either.
Dream Ahead is a sprinter pure and simple if he gets a mile I’ll …. well I won’t do anything – but he won’t.
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