The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Set-back for vaue and trends?

Home Forums Tipping and Research Trends, Research And Notebooks Set-back for vaue and trends?

Viewing 12 posts - 1 through 12 (of 12 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #11796
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    Yesterday’s Hunt Cup.

    Forgotten Voice had never run on turf, surely no trends follower could have that?

    4/1 in a 30-runner handicap, surely not a value bet?

    Who the hell backed him then?

    Colin

    #234893
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Are people not allowed to bet if their selection isn’t ‘value’ or doesn’t fit any sort of trend, Colin?

    Assuming you’ve latched on to the correct answer – which is ‘of course they are’, by the way – then the solution to your riddle should become clear.

    #234894
    Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    Colin, Forgotten Voice was the ultimate insider bet.

    The tricky Noseda doing his usual impersonation of a trappist monk; Paul Roy and his super-rich BHA apparatchiks in their mahogany-lined halls winking knowingly; work watchers, gypsies and touts perched in oak tree eyries. They all suspected what was to come and profited accordingly.

    Of all the victories I’ve watched this week, this one left me the coldest.

    There is something about this type of gamble that irritates me. The average punter watches it happen from outside in the cold, is excluded from it, somehow disconnected from the whole process. I can remember cheering like a demented clown when Pasternak won the Cambridgeshire as all the evidence was there for everyone to see and the animal had exposed form. Everyone from my local newsagent to the fryer in the chippy backed Pasternak down from 11/1 to 4/1.

    Unless you were on the inside, you couldn’t back Forgotten Voice with brass washers. A masterpiece of hiding in plain sight from connections.

    If Paul is reading this, was there much of a cheer? I’ll answer tonight as I’m off to Warwick and Leicester.

    #234895
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6226

    Colin

    Forgotten Voice might be considered a value bet by anyone who knew he could ‘go a bit’ on turf. Clearly information made its way into the market in terms of the price.

    Max

    Unless you were on the inside, you couldn’t back Forgotten Voice with brass washers. A masterpiece of hiding in plain sight from connections.

    If you take that to its logical conclusion there would be no betting on races that include first time out runners.

    Rob

    #235026
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Yesterday’s Hunt Cup.

    Forgotten Voice had never run on turf, surely no trends follower could have that?

    4/1 in a 30-runner handicap, surely not a value bet?

    Who the hell backed him then?

    Colin

    If a value punter thought Forgotten Voice had a better than 20% chance then he should have backed it at 4/1. 18% 9/2 at early prices.

    Am sure Timeform won’t mind me saying what they said about him.

    He was a "horse in focus" (horse to keep an eye on) in Timeform, rated with a "p" for further improvement likely. Second top rated, just 1 lb below top. Unlike the top rated Cadre, Forgotten Voice was from a very much in form yard.

    The Timeform Perspective said back in early May after his last run, winning a class 3 handicap at Kempton:
    "Forgotten Voice is heading for pattern company before long, perhaps taking in the Hunt Cup on the way. Showing just what he’s capable of given a clear passage this time, routing his field once he made his move and showing smart form with more to come; he’s shown his hand much more now and course position can play havoc with even the best handicapped runner at Ascot, as Bankable showed last year, so Forgotten Voice’s chance is best assessed on the day anyway, but beyond that he’s clearly an exciting prospect, well up to winning more races."

    On the day, Forgotten Voice had an excellant draw (1). So 4/1 may well have been a VALUE price. Bankable was much shorter a year ago.

    Value Is Everything
    #235153
    graysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6964

    Forgotten Voice had never run on turf

    …which made him merely unproven on turf (with the prospects of being as good, better or worse on it still all very much open) entering the race, rather than ineffective on it.

    Doubtless the race constituted as tough an introduction to the surface in a handicap as one could envisage, but not one guaranteed beyond all doubt to be an insurmountable one for him.

    gc

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #235184
    rory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    Maxilon’s posting on this, as demonstrated by Gingertipster, is well wide of the mark. It’s been well documented that Forgotten Voice has long been well thought of, and only injury prevented him from running in Group company as a 2yo. Connections haven’t attempted to attain a low mark for him by running him down the field when unfit or over the wrong trip and nor have they hidden their agenda for the horse; any punters who hadn’t picked up on the fact that he was well handicapped simply on account of his rate of physical improvement are very poor judges.

    #235201
    % MAN
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5104

    If Paul is reading this, was there much of a cheer? I’ll answer tonight as I’m off to Warwick and Leicester.

    Sorry only just seen this post Max.

    Yes he was cheered home – very loudly – he attracted a lot of money on course – some getting on at 5/1 for decent sums.

    At the risk of sounding like Jeremy’s cheerleader what he said is spot on.

    Before I am accused of after timing – I did not have a bet in the race.

    However in my preview of the race I wrote:-

    Forgotten Voice – could spring a surprise. Unbeaten, although all his runs have been on the all weather. Steady improver and with the stands rail draw could win if transferring his ability to the turf.

    [/color:3b6q4y21]

    #235309
    Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    Fair enough chaps. Criticism noted, though I’m not one hundred percent convinced that the collective punter wasn’t

    a little bit

    bent over but hey, it’s all good fun until someone loses an eye.

    Thanks Paul. :wink:

    #235327
    clivexx
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2215

    also it was in the press that Noseda had indictaed to the BHA bloke that FV was a group one horse in his opinion…not an opinion to be dismssed. Had to be backed with that to hand

    #235329
    rory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    Fair enough chaps. Criticism noted, though I’m not one hundred percent convinced that the collective punter wasn’t

    a little bit

    bent over but hey, it’s all good fun until someone loses an eye.

    Thanks Paul. :wink:

    Very magnanimous. Well done!

    #235371
    gamble
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4376

    Ascot was rigged
    I want a re-count.

    The horse was cleverly picked at all dave day

    £300 @ 5.3

    £300 removed but no extra 5.3 demanded

    £150 @ 5.3

    £150 removed but no extra 5.3 demanded

    get it

    I have got issues

    the batterdays

Viewing 12 posts - 1 through 12 (of 12 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.