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I have long suspected that selling hurdles are a very good type of race to make money from. Horses from top-tier yards are usually underpriced, likewise the top-rated horse in the race. Usually, these animals drop to this level due to a sudden loss of ability, decline in attitude or physical issues.
As a rule of thumb, I favour the modest yet reliable platers and think there could be an edge here. I’m going to try to look at every selling hurdle, claiming hurdle and selling handicap hurdle in this thread and see if we can turn a little profit.
Frustratingly, there isn’t a seller or claimer in sight until Sunday at Towcester. Watch this space!
Great stuff, I look forward to seeing how this pans out.
I always find it tough in those particular races, there is definitely money to be made on the whole in lower graded races, but I tend to stick with C3 and above as that’s where most of my money has been made over the years.
Sunday 23rd November 13:45 Towcester – Try Gg.com On Your Mobile Claiming Hurdle (2m)
Going: Soft1. GUD DAY – Miss Ali Stirling (7lbs) (Ferghal O’Brien) 11-08 Official rating: 110
A typically compact son of Aussie Rules, Gud Day started his racing life in the Southwell sandpit. Not handling the kickback in two starts against the likes of Brown Panther there, he showed more promise on turf before stepped up to take a handicap and seller at Leicester to earn a mark in the low 70s. As a solid 1m 2f performer, he joined Ferghal O’Brien via Ron Harris and the Yes No Wait Sorries to go hurdling.
As one of the earliest juvenile hurdlers of 2011, Gud Day shaped well in his initial tries at the discipline. Here began the pattern of a lifetime. The "held up, improved to chase leaders on bit 3 out, soon ridden, found nothing, kept on" formula is all he really knows how to produce. 42 runs over jumps, 2 wins and 22 placings tells a story.
The frustrating thing is that Gud Day usually travels like the best horse in his races, which has even led to a few near misses in rather decent handicap company. The problem is that he finds no change of pace under pressure and he has not won a race with horses rated over 100 as his victims. In many ways, he’s a credit to Ferghal O’Brien as a horse who runs practically every week, is very sound and now has flat, hurdling and chase wins to his name. For our purposes, he’s a dodgepot.
Recent form? Certainly seems as good as ever. At the end of October, he was second to the very useful Street Entertainer at Stratfor. The winner has his quirks, but is good on the flat and ran well behind Unique De Cottes at Cheltenham recently. Gud Day then went to Huntingdon for a claimer and couldn’t match Short Takes for a turn of foot, then was lamped by Lamps when dabbling with three miles in a claimer at Southwell. Undulating tracks and soft ground haven’t seemed like his favourite conditions in the past, but he has never been out of the first three in plating company.
2. OCCASIONALLY YOURS – Joe Akehurst (7lbs) (Alan Blackmore) 11-05 Official rating: 100
Races in the famous Cool Roxy colours. Formerly trained by Nigel Hawke, Occasionally Yours picked up a novice handicap hurdle off a mark of 90 before improving to win an open event at Huntingon and place in a Grade 3 at Sandown. He then hit a career peak by taking a handicap hurdle off 125 over the fixed brush hurdles at Worcester. Racing prominently and kicking early brought the best success for him during this run, mainly on good ground.
The inevitable decline followed and Occasionally Yours has certainly lost a lot of the pace he used to possess. That’s a major problem for a horse who wins his races from the front, especially at two miles here. His enthusiasm at least remains intact, with a third place around Cool Roxy’s stomping ground Fakenham last time showing he could be on the way back to some sort of form.
Soft ground and testing tracks are fine for this one, but two miles certainly isn’t nowadays. He’d need to create a real burn-up to take this.
3. YASIR – Peter Carberry (3lbs) (Conor Dore) 11-05 Official rating: 103
Yasir has been a feather in the cap for the non-standard training techniques of Conor Dore. Once a Godolphin inmate who beat Robin Hood’s Bay on the all-weather, he regressed but at least became consistent at a low level for his new handler. Claimers were easy meat, but his strike rate in all-weather handicaps became poor, mainly due to laziness according to Dore.
Jumping brought some tidy results even before his first go in a selling hurdle, where he split respectable platers Tender Surprise and Phase Shift. He then got slightly outstayed when up close in a competitive race at Uttoxeter. Although he did place at two miles on the flat, his bread and butter was 10-12 furlongs, so you can forgive some slightly tame finishing efforts beyond the minimum trip over jumps.
The big positive for Yasir is that he loves soft ground. Recent form has slightly tailed-off, but Conor Dore’s pragmatic approach and patience has probably solved any signs of jadedness. I think Yasir will have a big say here. He’ll be fit from a recent spin on the flat at Southwell.
4. VINNIE MY BOY – Jamie Moore (Peter Bowen) 10-13 Official rating: 116
I struggle to get a grasp on Peter Bowen’s horses. I’m not sure whether he runs a gambling yard, or whether his horses are just more prone to viruses and sudden losses of form. The only thing for sure is that he has his animals 100% sharp for the Grand National fences.
At his best, Vinnie My Boy would laugh at these. He won two bumpers and kept good company until the Bowen factor kicked in over hurdles. His form tapered off before various headgear switcharoos elicited wins off 99 and 112 at 3 miles and 2m 4f. A spell chasing has been completely hopeless for no obvious reason. Vinnie My Boy actually jumps quite well, but has been utterly lifeless and will not figure in this finish if he doesn’t up his game drastically.
Nothing surprises me with Peter Bowen, but this is too much of a leap of faith. Pass.
5. FORMAL BID – Jason Maguire (Gordon Elliott) 10-07 Official rating: 109
Formal Bid is the best treated horse in the race at these weights and will be popular as an Irish raider from a powerful yard. Is it cut and dried though? Not really. While Formal Bid is the most serial winner in the race, he’s desperately needs good ground. He tends to avoid softer surfaces, but was beaten 83 lengths (last of six) when giving it a sporting go on the slushy stuff in a selling hurdle at Stratford last year. He won a chase at Downpatrick last month, so wellbeing is guaranteed, but the mud won’t go away.
He’s best opposed on balance.
Conclusion
At first glance, a trappy little seller, the mysteries have been unraveled. I think YASIR is worth a bet as he will love the ground and testing two miles. He might even be a backable price as one of the lowest rated of the quintet from one of the more unfashionable yards.Formal Bid will struggle on the soft ground, Gud Day struggles to win full stop, Occasionally Yours needs further and Vinnie My Boy seems to have lost the plot. Simples!
Price to follow.
Well, how about that?
Occasionally Yours unseated early, the fav predictably didn’t go on the ground, Vinnie My Boy didn’t fancy it and Gud Day did what Gud Day always does.
Just a little 16/1 winner to start the thread. Good on ya
Yasir
!
After Yasir popped up at 16/1 at Towcester on Sunday, we have some high standards to live up to for Wednesday’s Wetherby opener – a claiming hurdle restricted to conditional jockeys. This one is over 2m 6f and has two immediate points of interest. One is that future champion jockey Jamie Bargary has been booked to ride Leath Acra Mor for Ian Williams and the other is the much belated hurdling debut of Montaff, who was once rated over 100 on the flat.
Let’s take a spin through the septet and see if we can nail down a winner.
Wednesday 26th November 12:15 Wetherby – IJF Jack Berry House Conditional Jockeys’ Claiming Hurdle
Going: Soft
1. LEATH ACRA MOR – Jamie Bargary (5lbs) (Ian Williams) 11-08 Official Rating: 115
A very fragile type, Leath Acra Mor’s career has been punctuated by no less than three breaks of more than 200 days, which is quite an achievement for a horse only eight years old. At his best between 2m 4f and 3m, he won twice in handicap hurdles before winning a chase this summer. He was rated around 120 at his best.
Leath Acra Mor’s best asset has always been his attitude, often being one of the first to come under pressure before digging out more under heavy driving. He was owned by a partnership including footballer John O’Shea until that chase win, after which he dropped to claiming company in the colours of his trainer. If that was not a bad enough sign, he showed signs of drastic decline when utterly lamped by Lamps and our friend Gud Day in that claimer.
Physical decline is a worry in one so fragile. Even at his best, the ground is a big question mark given that he has avoided pretty much any hint of softness underfoot in his entire career.
2. ROCK RELIEF – Diarmuid O’Regan (6lbs) (Chris Grant) 11-08 Official Rating: 112
This grey son of Daylami is usually a strong traveller in his races, especially on his favoured soft ground. He was winless on the flat for Sir Mark Prescott and improved with time and experience over hurdles for Chris Grant. Rated in the mid-120s after several wins and good efforts behind the likes of John’s Spirit, Agent Archie, More Of That and My Tent Or Yours, he has certainly clashed with a few top-notchers in his time!
Rock Relief’s form has gone a little patchy in recent times, not helped by encountering some of his least favourite conditions. First runs after a break, extreme stamina tests and good ground aren’t what he needs. His recent appearance in a handicap hurdle on soft at Sedgefield should have been his cup of tea, but he rather downed tools mid-race and only kept on for a distant fourth.
On the positive front, he usually goes well at Wetherby, has his soft ground and has taken a couple of runs to tune up to his best form in the past. Diarmuid O’Regan is also a very able claimer.
3. COOL OPERATOR – Phillip Dennis (8lbs) (Philip Kirby) 11-04 Official Rating: 119
Phillip Dennis is one of the least experienced jockeys in the race, but gets the bulk of his rides for Phil Kirby and should know Cool Operator well. This 11-year-old gelding was trained by Howard Johnson in the early part of his career to win a hurdle and two weak chases, before being predictably outclassed in Fordpadydeplasterer’s Arkle.
He lost his form after this and picked up only a minor handicap hurdle before Howard Johnson’s demise saw him move to the Kirby yard. Cool Operator took his time to find form, but eventually reinvented himself as a rugged staying chaser, picking up wins in the mud at Carlisle, Towcester and Uttoxeter. The zenith was a gallant 7th to Godsmejudge in the 2013 Scottish National.
Cool Operator took so long to recover from that successful spree that he didn’t hit the track again for another 554 days, only recently finishing well down the field in a staying chase at Carlisle. The drop into claiming hurdle company isn’t especially encouraging given that you’d expect to see him sticking with the marathon chases. Even if able to recapture his best at his age after such an absence, he might find a few of these too nippy around Wetherby.
4. MONTAFF – Tom Cheeseman (5lbs) (Richard Guest) 11-04 Official Rating: N/A
Well, this is the star turn, or at least would have been circa 2011! Let’s look at Montaff’s book of achievements. Beaten a neck by Age Of Aquarius in the Lingfield Derby Trial, last of 12 behind Sea The Stars in the 2009 Derby, took two trips to the Dubai Carnival, last of 12 in Rite Of Passage’s Ascot Gold Cup, 2nd to Tominator in the 2011 Northumberland Plate, 5th to Ile De Re in 2012.
That’s where the walk down memory lane ends. Montaff slid from a peak rating of 106 down to 74 on the flat before leaving Mick Channon to join Richard Guest. A year off followed, then three more lifeless runs for Guest to drop him into the mid 50s. This belated shot at hurdlings screams ‘last chance saloon’. Even considering his brilliant record on soft and heavy ground, the shocking decline is too much to ignore. Pass.
5. HARRIS – Garry Lavery (5lbs) (Alan Brown) 11-02 Official Rating: 107
A staying chaser with a very poor completion record. Formerly trained by Will Kinsey, Harris appreciated the switch from sharp tracks to the ultimate test of Carlisle and notched a hurdle and chase win in lowly company at that course.
He hasn’t had his ideal conditions (soft ground, ultra-demanding stamina test, benefit of prep run) for a long time, but even that doesn’t excuse recent form of POPPP. He’s not a totally lost cause if he does wash up at Carlisle in the mud again some time, but cannot be backed with confidence to even complete the course here. This would be too sharp for him even if wellbeing was guaranteed.
6. TOO GENEROUS – Michael Heard (8lbs) (David Pipe) 10-11 Official Rating: 117
Strictly at the weights, Too Generous does have a very good chance here. Another positive is the fact that the Pipes don’t just throw rubbish at claimers and sellers and have quite a good strike rate in this grade. Jockey Michael Heard has only had five rides under rules, but impressed many on Street Entertainer at Cheltenham last weekend.
Too Generous is lightly-raced but has a good strike rate, with two bumpers and two hurdles to her name. She has been well placed by David Pipe to land some very weak races and certainly hasn’t achieved as much as…well…any of the five already mentioned. She ran an appalling race on her comeback at Plumpton recently, but does have a history of bouncing back to win her second start. She’s probably best opposed on value grounds, but wouldn’t be a surprising winner given connections, the weights, her liking for the ground and her winning knowhow.
7. BOLD AND FREE – Dean Pratt (3lbs) (David Thompson) 10-08 Official Rating: 93
A very modest performer under both codes, with a poor record on soft ground and a very tough task at the weights. It’s impossible to fancy Bold And Free.
Conclusion
Too Generous is likely to be a skinny favourite here, but hasn’t achieved as much as Leath Acra Mor, Rock Relief or Montaff and might have her share of temperament nowadays. There are big wellbeing question marks about Leath Acra Mor, Cool Operator and Montaff, so the strong travelling grey
ROCK RELIEF
gets the vote. He is sure to improve for his two latest runs, goes well at Wetherby and has a good record in soft ground.
Price to follow.
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