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Still messing and assessing, but I will put up what it tells me:
2:10 – LAY Spoof Master[/color:hn3kx1vg]
2:40 – BACK Split The Wind & Havanavich[/color:hn3kx1vg]
(This is a maiden race, so maximum caution, and personally, I have chucked these two in small forecasts with Title Role)3:10 – LAY Summer Winds[/color:hn3kx1vg]
(I am not sure that laying horses like this is a good idea. Although their form is rarely as good as others, they are unexposed and open to tons of improvement. As it stands though, this is rated a lay.)Finally, no ‘system’ bets advised but I will be having a small f/c,t/c play on BALERNO, TUNING FORK and STARGAZY in the last (5:10) who all come from trainers with positive recent form and are rated well clear as a threesome.
Southwell today…
4:00 – BACK Victor Trumper[/color:1fctp4x0]
4:00 – LAY Solicitude4:30 – LAY Diriculous
5:00 – LAY Kentucky Bullet[/color:1fctp4x0]
I think that horses with excellent strike rates (e.g. 50%+) under a particular code or at a particular course are probably worth excluding for lay purposes. They may either be improving, unexposed, or true specialists, and this might not be properly reflected in their price.
Today, I have looked at a handful of races over jumps as well as Kempton, resulting in the following…
[u:1a2hf54g][b:1a2hf54g]LAYS[/color:1a2hf54g][/b:1a2hf54g][/u:1a2hf54g]
4:50 ludlow – OLYMPIAN
8:20 kempton – MARMOOQ, SUHAYL STAR[/color:1a2hf54g][b:1a2hf54g]BACKS[/b:1a2hf54g]
4:00 towcester – DONALD WILL DO
7:20 kempton – RED AMARYLLIS (no recent run though)
8:20 kempton – GARAFENA (also no recent run)[/color:1a2hf54g]A slight switch of tack, and a more subjective approach for today, focussing on shorter priced runners coming from yards with weak trainer form but with each of these assessed individually as to whether the lay is valid…
4:20 ayr – SPECIAL DAY (TR -9.54)[/color:7zxdrwvh]
– takes on older, better horses
– is not guaranteed to be better for this extra distance
– plenty to find on bare form shown so far
– clobbered by the handicapper for running away with a weakish heat7:00 nottingham – ST JEAN CAP FERRAT (TR -5.24)[/color:7zxdrwvh]
– all main rivals come from yards with more solid form
– has had plenty of chances and seems to find little under pressure7:45 wolverhampton – EXPENSIVE ART (TR -2.59)[/color:7zxdrwvh]
– has no course experience and will probably have to come wide
– faces a number of solid, fast opponents
– only has a 1 from 6 polytrack strike rate, despite seeming to be well handicapped8:15 wolverhampton – DESPERATE DAN (TR -11.85)[/color:7zxdrwvh]
– very weak stable form
– only has one form opponent, but that one is guaranteed suited by conditions
– possibly better at Lingfield, and in bigger fieldsContinuing sporadically…
2:30 ripon – TAWZEEA (TR -4.13)[/color:114pjomr]
– a bit of a hype horse who is handicapped no more than fairly
– faces a pretty competitive field here3:50 leicester – AL QASI (TR -3.29)[/color:114pjomr]
– more decent/reasonable rivals than the market implies
– lacks a run and has never won on seasonal debut4:50 ripon – FASLIYANNE (TR -5.32)[/color:114pjomr]
– ran promisingly but in a very average race for Newmarket so form may be overrated
– faces similarly once raced promising types in Woteva and Caranbola
– some other dark horses in this race and looks fairly strongFrom 1st May, I will be keeping a proper tally of lays and a running balance based on a start position of £200, with each lay being a 5% risk rounded down to the nearest £, and with a £10 minimum risk.
The approach I have found most useful is one that doesn’t involve tons of rules and exceptions to ‘automatically’ generate selections. These just lead to a system which often selected unexposed horses as lays and virtual no-hopers as backs. I have also found that the success of the ‘backs’ was pretty sporadic, and as such will only be focussing on the laying side of things.
Essentially, a short-list is generated from the shortest priced runners (based on the RP forecast/tissue prices) with trainer ratings of -2.5 or lower. Each of these is then examined in the context of the race and market – as far as possible ignoring the trainer rating – and identified as either ‘no bet’ or a lay. There is no minimum or maximum number of plays per day.
Hopefully, the underlying negative trainer ratings will provide a non-level playing field (in my favour) but we shall see…
Last of the sporadic ‘phase one’ selections:
4:10 bath – NAUGHTY THOUGHTS (TR -2.68 )[/color:22qs53au]
– likely to be overbet, based on an admittedly unfortunate run last time
– not a guaranteed stayer and the Folkestone effort, run at a crawl, not convincing
– faces a couple of relatively unexposed sorts here – Rose Row in particular6:50 sedgefield – KING DANIEL (TR -10.12)[/color:22qs53au]
– barely stays the trip and any rain won’t help him get home
– been on the go a long time, and several previously in-form stablemates have run below par more recently
– up a stone in the weights for his demolition job at Doncaster but that was far from the most competitive handicap
– this is something of a specialist course and hasn’t looked at his best here in two runs
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