- This topic has 67 replies, 19 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 3 months ago by
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- Posts
It’s a subject I’m personally very interested in – one of the areas I think has potential to provide an ‘edge’ – and I’ve been keenly following both the blogs of James Willoughby and Simon Rowlands on the subject.
Willoughby – http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com/2011/02/pace-final-frontier.html
Rowlands – http://bit.ly/icVI6L
People have been keenly lobbying the BHA for years for the introduction of sectional timing on UK racecourses.
But, keen as I would be to see this change from a selfish perspective, I can’t help wondering about its proper place in racing’s priorities.
Who would be the ‘customer’ for such info? Would any casual punters be interested and would it have any interest at all for those not already acquaint with the sport, other than to provide additional complexity?
What would be the benefit?
As a devotee of Andy Beyer I would welcome sectionals although I appreciate they are of most value on courses which can be accurately measured ie the rails never move which currently limits their usefulness to the AW tracks.
Weren’t sectionals trialled at Wolverhampton and then abandoned? I’m not sure why.
A good question is exactly what are UK racing’s priorities. Other than survival I would not have a clue.
You can turn your question around – how would punters in USA and Hong Kong react if sectional, and in HK horse body weight data also, was removed. I suspect there would be uproar.
Does UK always have to pander to the lowest common denominator?
Why do we even have ratings, starting stalls or race times? The majority do not fully understand those let alone time ratings.UK greyhound racing have had both measurements for decades. I have not heard anyone ever questioning why. The data is a vital part of the sport.
BHA should introduce sectional times and horse body weights for one simple reason – evidence of conspiracy to cheat that would stand up in Court. Hearsay, subjective opinion, circumstantial and other evidence currently available does not meet that standard and racing loses out because many regard it as totally bent and something they should not ever get involved in.
When you get to understand sectionals, which I have used on UK racing since the 1980s then you will realise that rail movements and course geometry differences are what make sectionals even more important, not less.
- Total Posts 17716
You have to use probability theory to make effective use of sectionals.
It depends on track and distance.
In narrow tracks with curvature early speed is important and the speedy types are favoured.
Knowledge of sectionals can also reveal to you probable speed duels.
Plus it is a very valuable tool for live betting.The dreaded probability formula is this one:
http://www.untruth.org/~josh/math/normal-min.pdf
In it you will have to adjust the speed ratings for the effect of early speed. You need software.
But even without such, if you have the raw sectionals and you place the runners in order of early speed it gives you a good clue.I don’t know why UK are not producing such figures.
There is also a company in USA and another one in Australia who make use of chips placed on the saddle. They made experiments in Kentucky and also in Wolverhampton in England.
For those chips to operate well, a system of antennas in needed placed perimetrically around the course. There are magnetic fields produced that should not go above the environmentally accepted limits, and this one appears to be the snug in the entire scheme (unless they found a way to overcome it).The tendency among data companies is to try and make those figures proprietary so to make use you have to pay through the nose.
- Total Posts 17716
BHA should introduce sectional times and horse body weights for one simple reason – evidence of conspiracy to cheat that would stand up in Court. Hearsay, subjective opinion, circumstantial and other evidence currently available does not meet that standard and racing loses out because many regard it as totally bent and something they should not ever get involved in.
I’m agnostic on sectional timings, though the practicalities and funding issues of introducing them on old and complex courses where rails are moved often and much seem prohibitive (what price Cheltenham??) and I wonder who’d pay.
Robert
, what you say is interesting: how do you feel sectionals might provide evidence of conspiracy? Say, for example, in the case of a horse subtly ridden not to win in a race run at average pace throughout, which lurks around the rear and comes through beaten horses to finish a never-nearer 5th…
- Total Posts 17716
What do sectional times tell you that your eyes don’t?
It is fairly easy to include how a race was run when looking at how it effects form. Noting how many horses are pulling and over all (standard) times allied to going, tell you how the race was run. Also noting how many front runners, prominent, or track pace, is likely to tell you how the race is likely to be run; and how it will effect the chance of each horse.
Also like to look for horses who have performed better than their finishing position suggests. One that does best of those ridden prominently in a strongly run race, and vice versa. By looking at pace you can identify horses who are likely to be well handicapped, or one that may be flattered by his position.
However, I don’t see that sectionals are necessary, and don’t want them. Because it will limit my edge. Too many punters using the evidence restricts the price available.
Value Is EverythingWhat do sectional times tell you that your eyes don’t?
Is that a leading question AJ?
Phrases such as ‘quickened up’ ‘sprinted away’ ‘turn of foot’ ‘took hold of the bit and pulled away’ are bandied about willy-nilly when a horse on visual evidence ‘accelerates’ away from his pursuers.
The human eye needs a frame of reference to judge the speed and/or acceleration of one body relative to another. This is straight forward when there is one moving object and the reference is motionless i.e one running horse and the stationary background. When the reference is also moving, the eye uses the object moving slowest (least fast) to judge the speed of the other faster (less slow) object: an exercise in relativity
If the moving reference is travelling at a constant speed then a fairly objective and accurate assessment can be made of the speed of the faster object. However if the reference is not constant i.e is accelerating or decelerating then the eye still uses this reference as if it were travelling at a constant speed relative to the faster object. Hence a false impression is made of the manner in which the faster object is travelling.
If the reference is decelerating – a quite likely scenario towards the end of a race when a horse is tiring – the horse showing a ‘turn of foot’ ‘accelerating’ past this slowing refererence may quite possibly only be decelerating less rapidly than the reference, despite the visual impression
Hence sectional timing is a valuable, perhaps crucial, means of determining the speed and rate-of-change of speed (velocity to be more accurate) which of course is acceleration or deceleration.
Relative to a motionless reference: the furlong poles
Wholly agree with Robert99. Casual punters will in all likelihood not be interested in sectionals; nor are they likely to be interested in ratings, timefigures, handicap marks, headgear…and the myriad other variables that may or may not interest the ‘serious’ punter
That said I actually believe the introduction of sectionals would make the race more ‘exciting’ to the recreational punter/racegoer if flagged-up during a televised race: ‘he went through that quarter in a very fast xx seconds, can he maintain it over the next quarter’ ‘that was a very slow quarter we can surely expect some dramatic acceleration as the race hots up’ sorta stuff
Bring it on (and the weighing of horses)
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All manner of horse are decelerating at the closing stages, if you time them in the still frame of reference.
When you see Secretariat unstuck from the pack he is also probably decelerating !
The conspiracy thing is because when we know horse styles in detail, then we can tell something was amiss. For instance habitual front runner opts to race off pace. We call the jock and tell him "dit mi la verita" !
I hate moving rails and lazy note takers who make mistakes.There is an angle no Greek punter forgets and that’s the "race composition" as we call it, i.e. who is the front runner, the pacemakers and the off pace runners.
If you omit this, it feels like walking into a restaurant in underpants. Maybe it will or won’t hurt, may be the axman is in any case waiting for you, but that’s the way it feels.
So I wrote to rp once asking why you omit this and they replied me mumble-jumble or something.- Total Posts 17716
How you time sectionals is also important.
Early speed that is, because finishing speed as such won’t tell you much when you know the early speed and the total (wire to wire).
Question no 1. Note time the instant the gates are opened or the instant horse makes its move ?
Question no 2. Note time at the 200y, 400y or 600y point ?would like them but also it would be a first priority if we knew exactly what distances races actually took place over first…..
- Total Posts 17716
would like them but also it would be a first priority if we knew exactly what distances races actually took place over first…..
you need conversion formulas.
not extremely accurate but it more or less work.
I mean your horse raced 7f,6f,8f and it in now 5f. You need a conversion formula for the early speed fraction (because your objective is to compare the group that makes up the card of course).- Total Posts 17716
would like them but also it would be a first priority if we knew exactly what distances races actually took place over first…..
you need conversion formulas.
not extremely accurate but it more or less works.
I mean your horse raced 7f,6f,8f and it is now 5f. You need a conversion formula for the early speed fraction (because your objective is to compare the group that makes up the card of course).When you get to understand sectionals, which I have used on UK racing since the 1980s then you will realise that rail movements and course geometry differences are what make sectionals even more important, not less.
Do you record sectionals for all courses Robert ?
I’d imagine it must be near impossible in certain instances to attain an acceptable level of accuracy when recording the data. For example Newmarket where the camera may change or zoom in/out making it difficult to gauge location of furlong markers or other consistant reference points at critical points on the track.
When discussing racing or betting with friends who follow other sports they are genuinely surprised that data such as weighing of horses or sectionals are not available as standard for UK/Irish racing.
The casual racing fan may not use or fully understand this information if introduced, but it does nothing for racings profile to not at least appear to take an interest in looking like a forward thinking sport.
In an age where every other major sporting event is or can be analysed in detail relatively easily it makes little sense for racing to shoot itself in the foot by making it so cumbersome for members of the public to develop an interest in the sport.- Total Posts 17716
When you get to understand sectionals, which I have used on UK racing since the 1980s then you will realise that rail movements and course geometry differences are what make sectionals even more important, not less.
Do you record sectionals for all courses Robert ?
I’d imagine it must be near impossible in certain instances to attain an acceptable level of accuracy when recording the data. For example Newmarket where the camera may change or zoom in/out making it difficult to gauge location of furlong markers or other consistant reference points at critical points on the track.
When discussing racing or betting with friends who follow other sports they are genuinely surprised that data such as weighing of horses or sectionals are not available as standard for UK/Irish racing.
The casual racing fan may not use or fully understand this information if introduced, but it does nothing for racings profile to not at least appear to take an interest in looking like a forward thinking sport.
In an age where every other major sporting event is or can be analysed in detail relatively easily it makes little sense for racing to shoot itself in the foot by making it so cumbersome for members of the public to develop an interest in the sport.Bureaucrats tend to be lazy.
But to a certain extent, not enough to justify their laziness, they have to pay for some crowds to do those jobs.
I believe it’s going to become proprietary in the future.
I read in an old blogg about a student in the U.S.A. who used proprietary data in his college thesis, related to horse racing, and they had it disqualified. It appears a friend in the data company gave them to the student thinking there is no problem, but at a later stage the company boss disagreed and demanded the data not to be used.
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