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In this thread I will go in to different topics in my opinion essential or helps enormously in making a profit that have stood me in good stead over the years:
Feel free to comment and/or give your own thoughts on profitable gambling.
There will be other aspects to come about how to achieve the first subject, one that many of you will know is close to my heart. LOL.
Value:
There are other ways of making a profit, but every professional/winning punter I know has some understanding of “value”. Many years ago (before internet) whilst viewing horses in the parade ring at Wincanton (England), I got in to a conversation with a stranger discussing how we bet. Explaining, “I look at the Timeform Race Card and backed a horse at the top end of ratings I believed was “value”. Having fooled myself into thinking I was a pretty good judge, it did not take long to realise I had a lot to learn. My value was no value at all; at least the way I was doing it… with no thought of percentages! This bearded figure explained what it truly meant and that I should also consider backing outsiders when appropriate to do so. Somehow he managed to enthral me without sounding like a school teacher, doubt I shall be so lucky, apologies in advance…If only my maths teacher had explained the significance of this simple arithmetic, it could’ve saved me years of relatively unsuccessful punting. Then again, perhaps had I understood it properly from the beginning – probably have turned me against betting and horse racing altogether. A sport and now occupation I love. Anyway, that 15 minutes talking to a Wincanton stranger I (several years later) identified as professional gambler and fellow TRFer Alan Potts – changed my life.
They say, (whoever “they” are) “someone’s got to win”! Yep, the sum of all “runners” in any given race must add up to 100%. (Any race of no finisher being void, with all stakes returned so doesn’t count). Whether making 100% books or not, it is vital for any punter to know odds as percentages. Most punters will know an Evens (2.0) shot should have (in his/her opinion) a better than 50% chance if it’s to be worth a bet. But punters should also know that 11/10 (2.1) = 47.6%, 100/30 (4.33) = 23.1%, 15/2 (8.5) = 11.7%, 14/1 (15.0) = 6.7% and 50/1 (51) = 2% etc etc. Punters should know all odds as percentages off by heart and every time he/she looks at a bookmakers board without thinking see them as percentages.
If betting on the throw of a normal dice there are six possible outcomes. A simple mathematical calculation of 100 ‘/, 6 tells us any given number has a 16.6 recurring (call it 16.67%) chance. We also know that with level staking a punter taking 5/1 odds about all possible outcomes on a dice throw receives the same amount back as he/she staked. ie 1 point bets on all six runners @ 5/1 means an overall stake totalling 6 points and returning 6 (5 winnings + the 1 stake). Therefore, 5/1 = 16.67%. Or to put it another way, to achieve “value” punters need to try and better a strike rate of 16.67% on (solely) their 5/1 bets.
Of course, with 5/1 for all 6 alternatives there is no profit for the bookmaker, so a mark up is added, offering 9/2 (18.18%). Betting to 109% (6 x 18.18% = 109.08%). In practice there’d be very few takers in betting on a dice throw, most punters recognising 9/2 as rank poor value when there is known probabilities of this 6 runner field. Unfortunately, “value” is often given a false meaning in horse racing/betting terminology; a word mistakingly given to any selection which is not favourite that just might (if lucky) beat the favourite. This is a misnomer! By “value” I mean better than fair odds. Absolutely any horse in any race can be value. Could be a 1/9 odds-on favourite if thought of as a better than 90% chance of winning; or a 50/1 outsider if believed better than 2% . Please notice the use of “thought of” or “believed”. Unlike the throw of a dice or a roulette wheel, betting on racing/sports has no definite percentage chance of winning; it is all a matter of opinions, punter v bookmaker (or fellow punter on exchanges).
Let’s take another example, a four runner race where a punter believes:
Horse B has ¾ the chance of A, 1½ times the chance of C and 3 times of D.
Horse C has ½ the chance of A and double that of D.
Horse D has ¼ the chance of A.Therefore:
A has a 40% chance = fair odds of 6/4
B has a 30% = 9/4 (well almost, 9/4 = 30.8%, but near enough)
C has 20% = 4/1
D has 10% = 9/1Now the punter looks at the best prices available for this four horse race.
If:
A is a best price 5/4, which needs a 44.44% strike rate to break even, let alone make a profit.
B is a best price 2/1, needs a 33.33% strike rate to break even.
C is a best price 100/30 needs 23.08% strike rate.
D = best price 12/1 needs just 7.69%.
Over-round of 108.54% because 44.44 + 33.33 + 23.08 + 7.69 = 108.54%.So in this race, D is the value bet despite even on the punter’s own workings out having the worst chance of winning:
D is the only VALUE bet because if the punter is right in his/her evaluations… a 10% strike rate (SR) @ 12/1 would achieve 130 points back from 100 individual 1 point bets @ 12/1, with 13 points returned for every 12/1 winner (12 + 1 stake), 10 x 13 = 130.
Where as:
For horse A, a 40% SR @ 5/4 returns 2.25 for every win, 40 x 2.25 gets only 90 points returned of a 100 points outlay. Not good enough.
2/1 returns 3 points per point staked, so Horse B, SR 30% SR is 30 x 3 = 90 points returned out of 100. Not good enough.
100/30 returns 4.33 per point staked, so Horse C, SR 20% SR is 20 x 4.33 = 86.6 points returned out of 100. Not good enough.Some punters have the benchmark of value needing also to have a good chance of winning. So 12/1 would not (to their way of thinking) be a bet. Although technically “wrong”, it is a scenario that can in practice be right for a particular punter, if disciplined enough to carry it through. In the above market there’d be “no bet”. He/she needs to be careful of subconsciously over-estimating the chances of shorter priced animals, just to get a bet. It is only to be expected that strike rates for10/1 to 100/1 will be much worse than 1/10 to Evens or even 11/10 to 9/1. So it is very easy to reach the wrong conclusion of being bad at identifying value outsiders (or indeed being good at finding value shorties solely because they win more often). If genuinely no good with outsiders – then it is wise not to bet on them, waiting instead for a bet in the price bracket where he/she is best at identifying value.
Personally, I am no good at identifying value at the shorter end of the scale; so don’t bet at shorter than 8/11. (Although I do bet at combined odds shorter than 8/11). Value does exist at that price bracket; just that many of you will be better at identifying it than I am. Finding it difficult to differentiate between something that has a 60% chance and something with 66 or 70% which is why I usually don’t bet in races with a long odds-on fav. If I don’t know what to give that shortie, then (in that particular race) my other prices will be wrong too. Also, to win anything it needs a considerable amount staked. So might be correctly pinned as “value”, but still could lose even at short odds; which could wreck a month or seasons profit.
I recommend forming 100% tissues at least part of the time, sometimes in small fields the value will shout out at you, without any need for a book. But be careful to take in to account all characteristics of ALL horses. eg A hold up horse might look particularly good value, but bookmakers may oppose a hold up horse because there are no prominent runners in the field. Being unlikely to get the pace needed to produce its best. So in all races punters need to look at all runners to come to the right decision of value.
There is not just one way of forming a tissue, everyone’s methods will be different, involving varying aspects of form. However well punters know their form book, some value seekers will never be adept at identifying value, therefore failing to achieve profit. Don’t expect miracles, if at all successful it will take time learning how to evaluate form in to percentages/odds. It took me several years of work/enjoyment to finally make consistent profits. There are far more “value seeker” profit makers around than there are profit makers only interested in finding “winners”. So it is a worthwhile venture.
What is and what is not “value” in any individual race is only an opinion, and successful punters will disagree about any individual race. However, if after a large (and I mean a “large”) number of bets a punter is making a good consistent profit (not where profit is gained by just one or two big wins which could still be “luck”) – he/she can then claim to have found “value”.
Punters who know odds as percentages off by heart have an enormous advantage over those that don’t. So even if not interested in making 100% tissues, being able to view a bookmaker’s board and immediately see prices as percentages helps in profit making. What! That horse must surely have a much better than 12.5% chance of winning! ie excellent value @ 7/1. Although personally, I do believe making my own 100% books in the past has helped me NOW identify value often without needing a “book”.
It is wise to have a “margin for error”. Novice odds compilers will need a bigger margin. I now normally have a margin of two prices up from my odds. Something I rate as a fair 25% 3/1 would not normally be backed @ 100/30 (23.08%) just 1.92% difference (25 – 23.08 = 1.92), but IS backed at 7/2 or more (22.22%) 2.78% difference (25 – 22.22 = 2.78). Those who like just one bet in a race can go for the selection with the biggest difference. Where as I prefer to bet the race rather than horse. Backing all I believe are “value” to varying degrees, main bets, possibly half bets (to win a fraction of my normal main bet) and for lesser value bets – savers; getting back what I’d lose on the other selections. Can be just one bet, or in a big field five or more selections. I would not recommend novice odds compilers backing more than two in a race. Runs the risk of ruining the value of one or two good bet/s if several poor value selections are included.
To calculate odds as percentages:
There are different ways to do the calculation to know their odds as percentages, but methods I used were: Divide 1 by the decimal. 5.00 (4/1) becomes 1 ‘/, 5 = 0.20 = 20%, so 5.00 (4/1) = 20%. Or for fractional odds: First figure + Second figure = Resultant figure. Second figure ‘/, Resultant figure = Percentage. 15/8 (2.875) = 15 + 8 = 23, 8 ‘/, 23 = 0.3478 so 15/8 = 34.78% etc. For odds-on take the equivalent odds-against percentage away from 100, so 4/1 = 20% therefore 1/4 = 80% (100 – 20 = 80). Obviously once a punter knows all odds as percentages there is no reason to keep doing the calculation. Once you know 15/8 = 34.8, you know 15/8 = 34.8. No need to be that accurate with decimals, anything I believe around 34¼ to 35¼% I’d regard as a fair 15/8 shot.Some might think making your own 100% book impossible, it might be for them. You need to know a lot about form and equally as important be good at evaluating it. But if impossible for us, then it would be impossible for bookmakers too. Are they wasting their time? Most bookmakers employ a company like Peter Martins, an odds compiler business looking at every race. Giving their assessment of chance, together with possible dangerous types; those who (for whatever reason) are difficult to assess and may need a larger mark up. Bookmaker’s own odds compilers then tweak those Peter Martins prices, deciding which horses to push in or out.
Discipline and specialisation are key for punters. Racing/sports betting is not like the throw of a dice, bookmaker’s odds compilers do not KNOW what the “true odds” of any race are, they can only make use of an informed opinion. Just as knowledgeable punters can produce our own informed opinion. Bookmakers need to produce markets on many races during a day/week/month. Punters can be more picky. If a race is too difficult to accurately assess chances, stop and throw it away. Only get involved when it suits you; in types of races you know are advantageous to your own personal horse racing/form knowledge. Most “value seekers” will fail, they will know the form book like the back of their hand yet be unable to evaluate form in to chance. But rewards for those who succeed can be enormous.
Good luck to all those with the ambition to try.
Value Is EverythingGreat article GT, thanks for taking the time and effort to write it. It has already provided me with some idea that I will try to bring into my selection process.
I feel rather outclassed by the amount of knowledge from yourself and many others on the forum so not sure if I’ll be able to add anything of major substance, but I’ll have a think about it and get involved if I feel it’s worth it!Pace, breeding and Stamina:
It is easy to think just because a horse has won at a distance it is fully effective at the trip. Depends when, under what conditions and whether characteristics of a horse have changed since? A two year old might win at 7 furlongs, yet need middle-distances at three. A three year old may be able to win early in the season at 10 furlongs, yet might improve as stamina is tested, eventually wanting 14 furlongs to produce its best by season’s end. Similarly, some novice chasers might win at 2m4f in its first few chases, yet are likely to improve considerably given 3m+ (depending on its temperament and breeding). Breeding is an obvious influence on distance requirements. Rarely a matter of sire’s best distance + dam’s best distance, divided by two. Horses often take after one or the other, or sometimes a grand-sire/grand-dam. Sometimes a sire/dam can install more speed or stamina than its own racing record suggests.
Character is important too. Headstrong individuals often pull too hard and don’t stay as far as their breeding indicates; where as lazy types relax so well, they can stay further. If a horse becomes too free, it may not get a trip it once did. One who learns to settle might stay further than previously.
Knowing the likely pace in the race can be a great advantage to punters, knowing horses likely to be suited by the likely slow or fast pace. Slow sectionals might enable one to stay further than it would at normal pace. However, the opposite can also be true. If a horse is known to take a hold and not settle; slower fractions may lead to it taking an even greater tug; ending up with nothing left in the ensuing sprint for home. Then again, a slightly better pace can (ironically) enable this type to be more amenable to restraint; settling can outweigh the so-called “increased test-of-stamina” that a faster pace produces – so having a better chance of lasting out in a well(ish)-run race. As well as taking breeding in to consideration… If relaxing well in races at 1m2f it will probably get 1m4f, where as one that takes a tug at the shorter distance will probably fail to get the longer trip pretty much whatever its breeding.
If relaxing well, a prominent position is usually an advantage when pace is poor. Being in the right place to strike when speed increases. I like to go through a race looking for those who front run, race prominently, track pace, race mid-division, be held up or dropped out. If there is only one of the first two or three categories, the horse in question might get an easy lead/advantage. Although if there’s a prominent runner that needs a test of stamina at the trip, it still needs to make a good pace so as not to get out-speeded. The opposite is also true. Races with three or four prominent runners, (or two who need to lead to produce their best) might take each other on, resulting in an overly strong pace. This favours those (if you pardon the expression) coming from the rear. Though again, one with stamina doubts might not get home.
Some front runners tend to sulk if unable to get their own way in front, so may be poor value when there’s another pace setter in the race. It also means when studying form discounting a run where unable to dictate (has excuses). Conversely, those with plenty of speed (eg fully effective at shorter) might (whether a prominent runner or not) be suited by a slowly run race; provided of course they settle well.
Racing is full of contradictions; a horse finishing fastest of all, coming from the back to win going away, is often described as showing a tremendous “turn of foot”; an over-used saying. In fact, it could be just slowing down at a lesser rate than the others; using its stamina (not speed) to win.
So characteristics as well as breeding are vital considerations when assessing stamina.
Knowing the horses and their characteristics is a vital part of making a profit. Horses who get the run of the race don’t always win, but they are far more likely to have a better chance than betting indicates (value). Sometimes punters believe they are unlucky when their selection finishes fastest of all, beaten by a front runner getting an easy lead; or curse if it goes off too quickly. Yet it is often possible to identify both those who will “leave it too late” and the “lucky winner who’s got an easy lead” before the race and before selection; purely by going through the form.Value Is EverythingPunters who know odds as percentages off by heart have an enormous advantage over those that don’t. So even if not interested in making 100% tissues, being able to view a bookmaker’s board and immediately see prices as percentages helps in profit making.
Not sure I agree with this – it depends on your way of looking at it, I’m sure many (including me) would have a better ‘feel’ for whether a horse was value if it was expressed as a 4/1 chance rather than 20% chance. Both are expressing exactly the same thing (probability), so neither way is necessarily ‘better’. Totaling up over-rounds, making a book, etc, require understanding of percentages but assessing value, not a pre-requisite for everyone. It all depends on approach. More ways than one to skin a cat.
Punters who know odds as percentages off by heart have an enormous advantage over those that don’t. So even if not interested in making 100% tissues, being able to view a bookmaker’s board and immediately see prices as percentages helps in profit making.
Not sure I agree with this – it depends on your way of looking at it, I’m sure many (including me) would have a better ‘feel’ for whether a horse was value if it was expressed as a 4/1 chance rather than 20% chance. Both are expressing exactly the same thing (probability), so neither way is necessarily ‘better’.
Not sure you understand what I mean David.
If a punter does not know that a price of 4/1 needs a better than 20% chance to be worth a bet – then that “feel” is far more likely to be wrong. Punters with NO knowledge of percentages usually judge value of 4/1 shots against other 4/1 shots… And yet the latter (bookie‘s 4/1) are not fair 4/1 shots at all, vast majority are fair 9/2 or even 5/1 shots with a bookmaker’s mark up added. ie Instead of judging a particular 4/1’s chance against true 4/1 shots they are judging 4/1 (20%) against true 9/2 (18%) or 5/1 (17%). So (when punters do not know the percentages) it is not “expressing the same probability” and therefore give the wrong “feel”.
However…
When you yourself clearly know the percentages David; don’t see why you say “including me”. Because you – knowing a fair 4/1 = 20% – means you’ve already done that calculation. Those that know the percentages don’t need to “express” anything, they don’t need to conciously calculate from odds to percentage and back again. When I see a horse is 4/1 it does not matter if I see it as a “fair 20%” or “fair 4/1″; once punters know their fair odds as percentages it comes without thinking and yes, conversions are then unnecessary.Value Is EverythingInteresting stuff though – keep it coming.
Not enough interest to be worth bothering.
This section seems dead. Might try it agin in the main Horse Racing section some other time.Value Is EverythingTotaling up over-rounds, making a book, etc, require understanding of percentages but assessing value, not a pre-requisite for everyone. It all depends on approach. More ways than one to skin a cat.
Taking “luck” out of it (because luck always runs out if continuing to bet for longer)… Punters can achieve profit without searching for value if the way he/she looks at the race achieves that value without actively looking for it. But the more a punter looks for somethng the more likely he/she is of finding it.
You’re correct David, there are “more ways than one to skin a cat” if that cat is called “Value”. There is only one way to skin the cat called “Profit” and that is to achieve Value.
Value Is EverythingYes, agreed, you are only finding value if you are finding profit, and if you are finding profit then , one way or another, you are finding value. That is self-evident, although not to everyone!
On percentages – my point is that odds of 4/1 is just another expression of 20% (both expressions of a probability of 0.2 or 1:5). Four different numbers all expressing exactly the same thing. Becoming familiar with any of these ways of expressing chance such that it becomes intuitive (through study and repetition).
In betting on horses, pre-race we are estimating probabilities and we know that they should equal 1 : whether people calculate their edge via odds, ratios, probability or percentage is a matter of choice and suit, percentages are NOT the only way to go about it. In the end you have to arrive back at the same thing.Yes, agreed, you are only finding value if you are finding profit, and if you are finding profit then , one way or another, you are finding value. That is self-evident, although not to everyone!
On percentages – my point is that odds of 4/1 is just another expression of 20% (both expressions of a probability of 0.2 or 1:5). Four different numbers all expressing exactly the same thing. Becoming familiar with any of these ways of expressing chance such that it becomes intuitive (through study and repetition).
In betting on horses, pre-race we are estimating probabilities and we know that they should equal 1 : whether people calculate their edge via odds, ratios, probability or percentage is a matter of choice and suit, percentages are NOT the only way to go about it. In the end you have to arrive back at the same thing.Yes “odds of 4/1” can be “just another expression of 20%”. If (and that really is the point “IF”) a punter knows 4/1 as 20% as 0.2 etc then there is absolutely NO difference between someone calculating their edge via odds, ratios probability or percentages. We do NOT disagree on that David. So whichever one of those a punter uses he/she is doing the SAME thing. He/she is not doing it a different “way”, he/she is doing it the SAME way…
However; the point is if (that’s “IF”) a punter does NOT recognise 4/1 as being the same as 20% or 0.2 etc then he/she will be thinking of 4/1 as the same as a BOOKIE’s 4/1 which is NOT the SAME thing. Because a bookie’s 4/1 includes the bookie’s mark up. Punters thinking of 4/1 in this way are in reality thinking of 4/1 as mostly an 18% or 17% chance – which is just plain WRONG!
Therefore, the reason why I refer to 20% (percentages) instead of “4/1” (odds) is because unfortunately an expression of “4/1” means different things to different punters.
Value Is EverythingJust started back on this forum and I found your post very, very interesting; would really like to read more if you have the time to put something together. I do have a few questions if I may. Can you personal message on here?
Thanks
Jimski
You can't keep doing the same things, over and over again and expect a different result.
Just started back on this forum and I found your post very, very interesting; would really like to read more if you have the time to put something together. I do have a few questions if I may. Can you personal message on here?
Thanks
Jimski
Cheers Jimski,
There is private messages, but if you have any questions – ask away on this thread and will answer them.
Value Is EverythingBeen a bit hectic at the day job so had little chance to login recently. I woul like to know your opinion on compiling and keeping ones own ratings, be it speed or form ratings. Or, if you think using widely available information can still be profited from? Having read John Gibby’s ‘Well Handicapped Horses, he states you either have to have information others dont, or be better at interpretting the information that others do. Just wondered your thoughts? Been using the Racing Post for sometime and been breaking even(ish) for a while and pondering if keeping myown figures might hekp/hinder.
You can't keep doing the same things, over and over again and expect a different result.
Been a bit hectic at the day job so had little chance to login recently. I woul like to know your opinion on compiling and keeping ones own ratings, be it speed or form ratings. Or, if you think using widely available information can still be profited from? Having read John Gibby’s ‘Well Handicapped Horses, he states you either have to have information others dont, or be better at interpretting the information that others do. Just wondered your thoughts? Been using the Racing Post for sometime and been breaking even(ish) for a while and pondering if keeping my own figures might hekp/hinder.
Hi Jimski,
imo Speed ratings need to take in to account wind speed and direction and that’s very difficult. Also, if judging by speed ratings what happens if a race is slowly run? Speed ratings do not tell how good a horse is, it only tells how bad a horse isn’t. ie Good horses can have bad speed ratings purely becaiuse of the pace in a race, but bad horses do not put up good speed ratings. (*)I do use speed ratings from time to time, but they’re Timeform Timefigures. Always used Timeform Master Ratings too (not all “Timeform” ratings are about time) first through “Perspective” and now “Race Passes”; they have an army of little helpers, Timeform have over 70 years of experience and statistics; so never needed or wanted to do my own ratings. May be worth you looking at Timeform Race Passes, to get an idea of what’s involved and/or if you can use their information instead.
Problem with ratings is: (*) They need to take account the number of pounds per length is not only affected by race distance, but also going, wind and pace of the race (speed/stamina). Horses should also be marked up if the way a race is run does not suit. eg Hold up horse in a slowly run race who’s done well to finish as close. Or, because it’s doubtful whether the horse can run to that form again – if the race flatters – mark it down. eg Front runner getting an easy lead in slowly run affair.
Own Ratings might be possible if specialising. Two year olds would be too big a sample. Using distances, if anything on the flat solely 5f might be ok, but you’d need to do ratings for 6f too because of the cross over. You would not be able to bet in 6f races because if so you’d need to work out 7f and mile for the cross over. Shorter races are less suseptible to pace bias too. For a small enough group novice chasers or juvenile hurdlers might be best specialisation.
Although many people use Timeform – very few use it in the right way. To identify value… And even those looking for value – knowing the form book is one thing – most are unable to analyse and convert form in to value. So the need for “information others don’t” have is imo not true. Punters just need to be “better at interpretting the information”. Personally, I doubt if Racing Post Ratings are accurate enough.
The time good “Own Ratings” will take is enormous, good luck if trying. But just because I am incapable or too lazy to do my own ratings, doesn’t mean you would not be successful Jimski.
Value Is EverythingThanks for that, really appreciate your time. My approach is not just what a horse has done, but how it has done it. My thoughts on speed figures are that they don’t over estimate ability, but I do accept if only looking at speed figures against my benchmarks don’t take into account the hold up horses running well in slow pace races and track/conditions which suit the front runner. I do think speed figures are most accurate over 5 furlong races and thinking this is where my time will be best spent. After all, the official handicappers specialise in race distances, we can’t be experts of all types of race.
You can't keep doing the same things, over and over again and expect a different result.
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