- This topic has 24 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
can any one give me a formula to calculate seconds per mile, say for example race of 5f which = 0.625 miles,
the average time say is 57.30 seconds, how do i work out from that the seconds per mile.
Thanks.- Total Posts 2553
Is this filthy sectional timing talk?
- Total Posts 2553
Good luck with that
im trying to work seconds per mile behind average time, as in Nick Mordins book Betting for a living.
for example he has a list of the seconds per mile behind average times.
group 1 2.0 seconds
group 2 2.2 seconds
0-100 h’cap 3.2 seconds
the book is old and dated now what i cant work out is how he calculated these figures.- Total Posts 2553
Right
Nick Mordin just sampled (say 1000 Group1 races …aveStandard times at a mile on GOOD going) and then produced an overall comparison to the average.
etc…. through the grades.twmills the important deduction is that
“the better the CLASS the stronger the PACE” …no great revelation there.Are you serious about studying race time? If so i have plenty of stuff on TOPSPEED …with formulaes and pounds, lengths and seconds values.
D21
Yes im serious thanks would love to see the stuff you have, what i find the hardest thing to get is the going allowance formula
…
i think that lifes too short to calculate your own Going Allowance, i just use the Racing Post figure. Horse racing is to varied and unscientific to get very precious about the data. Good enough will definitely be good enough, because you just have to out perform JOE PUBLIC …and return an overall profit.D21
Hi Dynamite21 by using the racing post figure are not your speed ratings more or less the same as theirs.
To answer the original question, to calculate seconds per mile, divide the winning time by the race distance in furlongs and multiply by 8 (the number of furlongs in a mile).
Using the example given, this would be 57.30 seconds ÷ 5 x 8 = 91.68 seconds per mile.
Good luck
Hi Dynamite21 by using the racing post figure are not your speed ratings more or less the same as theirs.
Going Correction is only small (but vital) part of the speed rating calculation.
My opinion is that the important thing is where and when the speed rating was produced.
ie what going, class, type of track etc.It’s all about promoting some horse and elmination others, even though they may have similar RATINGS.
(plus it’s unnecessary to be 100% accurate …like i say good enough is good enough)D21
ps i will post my topspeed stuff soon, working on SATURDAYS racing at the moment(i hope you agree)
how do i work out from that the seconds per mile.
(doesn’t really get you anywhere)
Green is correct, that calculation gives “seconds per mile” but whether that’s exactly what you mean, twmills?
It may also be unwise to use an “average time” from all races. Vast majority of races are not truly run and therefore an average of all races will show a worthless figure. Instead it is best to only take in to account an average of only the faster times. What the Racing Post or Timeform might describe as a “Standard Time” and judge performances against that standard time in comparison to (in particular but not only) others on the same day on the same course.
As well as going correction, in order to get an accurate figure you’ll also need to take in to account wind speed and direction. Times with a strong tail wind (coming from behind them) will be a lot faster. Strong head winds will be a lot slower.
It may be an idea to look up how Timeform analyse times.
And/or Simon Rowlands work is also worth considering.Value Is EverythingAlways remember Phill Bull’s words:
“A time tells you not how good a horse is but how bad it isn’t”.
ie Because of a slow early or mid pace in the race a good horse can put up a slow overall time. Where as a poor horse can not put up a fast overall time.
Value Is EverythingSpeed ratings are not really about horses with most speed.
In my experience overall times are most effective as a guide the more horses are in the race and/or the number of front/prominent runners. ie The more horses and/or the more front/prominent horses to take each other on in the early stages… the truer the early pace is likely to be and the more relevant times will be.
A horse’s best time/s will come in truly run races and therefore similar ratings performances will only come in races reproducing that same truly run affair. Therefore the slower the early pace is in a betting race the less effective your speed ratings (which are based on overall times) are going to be.
Slowly run races will favour a prominent position and/or those with a turn of foot. ie Not this type of race.imo When using overall times as a guide small fields and/or those with likely slow pace should be ignored as betting races.
Races with consistent fractions throughout – favouring those able to maintain a cruising speed and/or stay on the better and/or slowing down at a slower rate in the final furlong than others – are most likely to be profitable for overall race time speed figures.
Value Is Everything
D21
“it took me a while to understand these calculations FULLY, …completely got it! now.”Thank you D21 dont fully understand will have to look a few times, again though would not by following the formula here, when i get it right be the same as topspeed. how do i go about geeting this into excel. Again the going correction how did it get o.24 seconds per furlong i cant see the calculation as how it arrived at this figure, unless im going blind.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.