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I’m all over Merigo for this.
With the defection of the three top weights Junior now heads the entries meaning Merigo will be set to run off 10-2.
He loves the course (form figures 3112121), won the race in 2010 and then finished second to the progressive Beshabar in 2011.
Both races were run on good ground but he loves heavy ground (111) and with the weather forecast for the week ahead he looks sure to get it.
He’s followed a very similar route to the past two years being rested for roughly six weeks ahead of the race but whereas he’s gone into the past two runnings seemingly out of form and on the back of a considerable beating in the Grimthorpe, this time around his last run resulted in a course victory – adding further proof to his liking not only for the course but also heavy ground.
He’s gone up 5lb for that win but still races off a mark 8lb less than last year (due to him being out of the handicap then) and only 7lb higher than in 2010 when he had them strung out like the washing behind. Indeed in 2011 other than Always Right back in 3rd the nearest challenger was 30L away.
His age is no deterrent as plenty of old timers have been placed in recent years and Hello Bud was also 11 when he won it in 2008.
Horses like Harry The Viking and West End Rocker would have obvious chances but low weights should have the advantage on the likely ground and the 8lb hike won’t help them as much as horses entering the handicap proper, such as Merigo.
Currently available at 10s he has a blinding chance IMO and I doubt he will be that big come the off.
Lee
Not sure the ground will be that bad as to say heavy!
I agree with you that the lower weights will be there and the one I like IF he turns up is MOSTLY BOB from the Hobbs yard and GALAXAY ROCK to cap off a great season and make some amends for Aintree!
Both decent EW prices
Probably true GDC but it will be slower than the past two years, of that I’m certain and while he doesn’t actually need to improve for the slower ground to win – a repeat of either 2010 or 2011 may be good enough – I do think he’ll improve on it and it won’t suit many of the others.
Lee
I think Lie Forrit has an excellent chance. He has a nice weight at 10st 6lbs, has won on the course and has won on ground ranging from good to heavy, although mostly on soft.
His last two runs, 2nd in both, over 2m 6f and 3m1f, he was still full of running, and running on well at the end of the race. I think this is a progressive 8yr old, having only run 15 times in all, winning 7 and being 2nd 4 times. That’s a pretty impressive strike rate. I think the 4m will bring out more in him and at 14-1 (Ladbrokes) he is overpriced. I don’t expect him to be 14s come Saturday.
I couldn’t resist a few quid on Walkon at 65’s, that’s a huge price, although, he may not go of course. I’d def be on ew, but the only firm going NRNB is Ladbrokes, and don’t fancy their 16’s.
Finally, if he goes, I’ll have a couple of quid ew on Ballyfitz, be rude not to (moe, if you’re reading, wade in, he’s an ew good thing
)Using the trends on another site which will not be mentioned here, I have narrowed it down to just three horses – Knockara Beau, Aurora’s Encore and King Fontaine.
I am getting ready to be proved hideously wrong, but I will, as ever, give it a go.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Surely knockara beau warrants consideration for this, as does fruity o Rooney. Portrait king if the surface stays sound.
Dear old Ballyfitz; perhaps I shall have to, especially after ignoring In Compliance on Saturday. There is a little group of ageing staying chasers that have morphed into one; In Compliance, Vic Venturi, Abbeybraney [of lor, he’s running on Saturday as well] and a few others. I wish I could just have sort of general bet on all of them at the start of the season, an insurance policy in case of ‘old favourite turning back the years and winning big race’. All it needs is for Character Building to re emerge from somewhere….
Dear old Ballyfitz; perhaps I shall have to, especially after ignoring In Compliance on Saturday. There is a little group of ageing staying chasers that have morphed into one; In Compliance, Vic Venturi, Abbeybraney [of lor, he’s running on Saturday as well] and a few others. I wish I could just have sort of general bet on all of them at the start of the season, an insurance policy in case of ‘old favourite turning back the years and winning big race’. All it needs is for Character Building to re emerge from somewhere….
He’s a good sort Moe, and I have a bit of a soft spot for him too. Only thing is he hasn’t won in a pretty long time, over 2 1/2 years, but he ran a decent race in the Midlands National last time, not looking like winning, but kind of plodded on for a good third.
He was running of a mark of 127 and carrying 10st 4lbs, which gave him a fair chance. He runs three pounds better off at 124 this time, but that still puts him 8lbs out of the handicap, which is asking a lot. The Scottish is a race that has had a few win from out of the handicap….Joes Edge in 2005 from 3lbs out, Hot Weld in 2007 from 5lbs wrong and Iris De Balme in 2008 from 7lbs out of the handicap, so it can be done.As I mentioned earlier on this thread, I do fancy Lie Forrit quite a bit. I mentioned taking the 14s still available at that time, that’s well gone…best price now 12s, and as low as 10s in some places.
Best of luck whatever you plump for.
Quote from a racing book; ‘he stays forever and once he’s got them at it he can quicken to finish them off’ re Lie Forrit. Bad luck over the past couple of seasons with terrible weather blighting the training schedule then the horse getting a leg. Deserves a big race win. If the race is on RUK expect Lydia to wax lyrical about him as he’s one of her favourites. Don’t want to put the mockers on Ballyfitz by backing him. Will be glad when he’s safely retired, the old love.
George Charlton must be due an award for the worst trainer in the country. In his last 18 races he’s run Knockara Beau in a races won by a list of horses that are like the who’s who of racing including Simonsig, Big Buck’s, Burton Port, Synchronised, Midnight Chase, Weird Al, Grand Crus etc etc.
His one win in over 2 years came in desperate ground in a hurdle race at Carlisle but that didn’t stop Charlton wasting more time and money by sending him for the Blue Riband of racing at Cheltenham, the Gold Cup.
To make things worse he has Jan Faltejsek riding for him who even falls out of bed at the last when dreaming about riding his next winner.
Plenty reasons there not to back him but a long distance staying chase could be exactly what the horse needs.
He comes here of 147 and if I didn’t know better I might even think this has been the long term plan for him. No doubt if he wins Charlton will say it was
Faltejsek is a worry but he may just make this number 2 for the season.Portrait King could well be the best handicapped horse in the race he won the Eider Chace of 131 and he’s in here off 131
stuffed I can work that one out but with Denis O’Reagan taking the mount again I fancy he’ll be right there at the finish.Portrait King and Knockara Beau for me 2 ew bets and a RFC
George Charlton must be due an award for the worst trainer in the country. In his last 18 races he’s run Knockara Beau in a races won by a list of horses that are like the who’s who of racing including Simonsig, Big Buck’s, Burton Port, Synchronised, Midnight Chase, Weird Al, Grand Crus etc etc.
His one win in over 2 years came in desperate ground in a hurdle race at Carlisle but that didn’t stop Charlton wasting more time and money by sending him for the Blue Riband of racing at Cheltenham, the Gold Cup.
To make things worse he has Jan Faltejsek riding for him who even falls out of bed at the last when dreaming about riding his next winner.
Plenty reasons there not to back him but a long distance staying chase could be exactly what the horse needs.
He comes here of 147 and if I didn’t know better I might even think this has been the long term plan for him. No doubt if he wins Charlton will say it was
Faltejsek is a worry but he may just make this number 2 for the season.Portrait King could well be the best handicapped horse in the race he won the Eider Chace of 131 and he’s in here off 131
stuffed I can work that one out but with Denis O’Reagan taking the mount again I fancy he’ll be right there at the finish.Portrait King and Knockara Beau for me 2 ew bets and a RFC
Hi hurdygurdyman
I’m not about to defend George Charlton as a trainer, I don’t know enough about him. From what I see he has not many horses in training (directoryofturf shows 19NH) and I suspect Knockara Beau is his "stable star" for lack of a better phrase. I suppose you can only shoot the bullets you have.
It depends what the owners are looking for in relation to their horse. I would have to say if I were the owner of Knockara Beau, I wouldn’t be too unhappy. He has run 7 times in the last year and you are right that he has been highly tried, or over tried if you like, but during that time he finished placed 3 times, finishing second behind Simonsig, and 3rd in the Argento Chase. He also, as you mentioned, finished 6th in the Gold Cup.
Now it’s like I said, it depends on what the owners want, and as it happens, during that period, he won over £31,000 in prize money.
I suspect you are a bit like myself, and would like to have a couple of winners to cheer on, but from a money point of view it has given the owners no headaches with trainers fees etc, which would be well covered by the prize money.
You could be right that the longer distance is what he wants, he was running on at the end of the Argento at 3m 2f, but I’m not convinced that it is.
Portrait King broke my heart last time out. I had banged on in here about Posh Bird’s chance in the Eider, and I had a good little wager on her. Up until 50 yards from the post, I thought she was all over the winner, but as you know, Portrait King got up under a great ride from Denis O’Regan. He will get the trip, no doubt about that and must have a squeek. Not sure where you picked up about the weights, he did run off 131 in the Eider, but the handicapper has slapped on 9lbs for that and he runs off 140 in the Scottish National.
Best of luck on Saturday.
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