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This could potentially end up an absolute barnstormer.
Barney Dwan, Benatar, Cyrname, Fountains Windfall, Kalondra, Le Rocher, Rayvin Black, West Approach and Terrefort.
Even if only half of them are confirmed on Friday it’ll be a race to savour.
Personally, I’m a big believer in Benatar; I think he’s a serious racehorse. He’ll go alright in the conditions and as a winning 3mile pointer he should have no trouble with the trip.
I’ve gone for Terrefort at 3/1. One of the lowest rated here but it’s early days for him and he made a good start for Henderson when winning at Huntingdon. It’s the same team who put out Top Notch to win this race last year and this fellow looks a typical ex French type for the yard. He gets 3 lbs from the rest.
Ratings are tight here and you could nominate a few. Benetar was bigger odds earlier in the week but is tight now. Original Fav Fountains Windfall is on the drift and with two falls already he will be a worry for some potential backers. Any worse and his name will become Fountains Willfall.
I’ll stick with the youth and potential of Terrefort and hope he can put a show on to encourage my ante-post at 25/1 for the JLT at the Festival. It’s interesting that he is vying for favouritism with Benatar in the Scilly Isles but the latter horse is as low as 8/1 for Cheltenham
Terrefort 3/1 Scilly Isles and 25/1 JLT
Good luck everyone.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
KALONDRA for me at 8/1 and 7/1 . I just hope he turns up!!
He has a much better hurdle rating than most of these( only three above him I think ) and have backed him Cheltenham tentatively at 40/1.
The other one I will be interested in is BARNEY DWAN but it looks like he might not run so will wait until tomorrow before backing him.It does look a good race and may be the best novice chase ran this season depth wise.
I would echo the Benatar love. However, I can’t see the appeal at less than 2/1. Cyrname is interesting at the price, and looked lto as though he’s a lot more than a handicapper.
Only five runners declared and the best prices are now:-
Terrefort 11/8
Cyrname 3/1
Kalondra 10/3
West Approach 12/1
No Comment 16/1Ham and Raymo have good prices/terms considering the field size now.
Not quite as good a race as it might have been but still interesting.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Missed the great prices for Steve and Raymo with your two but it’s the latter I’m siding with here.
I can’t have Terrefort after Henderson’s comments on him in his blog. He was suprised he won last time but he has gone as far as saying he would be ‘absolutely stunned’ if Terrefort was up to winning a race of this class. That makes him impossible to back at the crazy short price he is. I don’t think his English debut was a particularly strong race and I’m opposing him here. Fair play to Steve with the 3/1 thlugh.
Kalondra does have seemingly decent form over these fences though and has a similar profile to Cyrname. Both have been improving this season but the standard of their races is hard to get a grip with whilst the field sizes is 3 and 4 runners every time. I’ve decided that Kalondras wins have been of a better standard against better horses than the Nichols horse so my money will go to him.
West Approach has been a big disappointment after promising so much when behind Uknowhatimeanharry over hurdles last season.
Kalondra @ 10/3
Disapointed in the final line up but in the hope that there’s nothing else in the race that’ll want to be forward I’ve backed Cyrname at 3/1 thinking he’ll put them to the sword from the front.
I, like Henderson, got that one wrong.
Neither of us thought he was up to that standard.
Well done steve
Well done, Steve and all backers. Should have called him Terrier – very game and most enthusiastic chaser. I’d be a bit concerned about a reproduction of that on good ground, but he’s a smashing horse.
WELL DONE STEVE
He battled well and looks to have plenty of stamina. I bet they are scratching their heads now at Seven Barrows as to what to do with him now!
Well done Steve, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a tad gutted as I thought Cyrname was coming to get him at the last but hey ho. I think Terrefort handled conditions better than the runner-up and obviously the 3 pounds certainly didn’t help.
I personally wouldn’t have either winning at the festival but I can understand connections wanting to have a go at the JLT with both of the first two. The concern with Cyrname is that he seems to be better going right handed.
Thanks everyone. I just felt Terrefort had more to come.
In the end it was tight and if you took the winner out Cyrname has slaughtered his field 30 lengths.
Cyrname is the meatier made horse, while Terrefort is the lean, mean, angular youngster for now. Both may still be underestimated and Terrefort didn’t get cut that much for the JLT. He may do better than some of those ahead of him in the betting at Cheltenham and is certainly doing not bad for a horse showing nothing at home.
Willoughby Court is 5/1 Fav for the JLT but the fact of the matter is that Terrefort is now 160 on RPR, while the Fav for the JLT is on 157. Willoughby Court has an official rating of 152. I reckon that when we check the new official ratings this week, we will see that Terrefort is higher than that. I have him on 155 myself. We will see.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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