Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Savills Chase 2018
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greenasgrass.
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- December 23, 2018 at 23:02 #1390122
Stellar set of entries for this, and promises to be a cracker, especially as the signs are good for most of them trapping here…..
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/savills-chase/winner
Those at the head of the market need little introduction, and for what it’s at’s its worth, I’m struggling to be too negative about the big guns at the head of the market…..
Road To Respect
Presenting Percy
Bellshill
Shattered Love
MonaleeReally looking forward to seeing Presenting Percy back out.
Not in a rush to bet them, though 10’s for Shattered Love looks wrong to me.
I will have a bet in this, but as I’ll bet one of the outsiders, I’m as well waiting for Final Decs, as the prices tend to hold in these races.
These are the bigger priced runners getting my attention……
Al Boum Photo Hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons at Punchestown, but until then looked more than capable of getting competitive in something like this 12’s
Kemboy Smashing win in The Clonmel Oils Chase, and there seemed to be a genuine sense of dismay from connections when he couldn’t travel to Newbury. That hinted that a big run was expected, and for a horse who looked seriously progressive last year, then he’s a very backable price. 14’s
Total Recall Forgotten horse who might unfairly be written off for pulling up in The National, but until then, had had an outstanding season. If no ill effects from that slog in The National, then I’d give him a squeak 14’s
Edwulf Big big fan of this horse, and getting close to Tiger Roll in The Four Miler is better form than he’s given credit for. He came back last season after his scare at Cheltenham, and again, didn’t get the credit he was due when he won The Irish Gold Cup. Opinion was divided on whether Kilultagh Vic would have won if he stood up, but I tend to think Edwulf would have got him anyway, he was flying at the end. I don’t think he was given that good a ride in The Gold Cup, though I doubt he’d have went with the principles that day. Not entirely disgraced at Punchestown, and his comeback in The John Durkan, was not without promise over an inadequate trip. There’s a chance he might be campaigned for Aintree, but I think he could surprise a few. 16’s
Invitation Only In the process of running a big race at Punchestown, in the “Al Boum Photo race”, and with what happened shortly afterwards, understandably, his encouraging run was forgotten. He’s surely got more to offer, and he’s not discounted, though I do think he’s an ideal type for The Thyestes. 16’s
The Storyteller Like this horse a lot, and the ability is there, though quiet enough start to the season. Hard to seem him landing a handicap now, and I think he looks ideal for The Ryanair. Not totally out of this though. 20’s
Disko Sky looked the limit for him, but an injury put paid to last season. All a question of whether he’s back to his best, but if he is, then he’s a big price 25’s
Coney Island For “Disko” read “Coney Island”. Like the Meade horse, Coneys season was one to forget, to the extent that he has no right to get an entry for this. He does have an entry though, and that’s enough for me to think he might just be back. Risky, but that price is very tempting 33’s
Tout Est Permis He completely dismantled a strong field in The Troytown, and it was a run that immediately suggested that he should be going down the graded route. Entered in The Paddy Power, but trainer didn’t seem keen on him lumping top weight in that, preferring maybe a G2 for him. Chance then that he might not go here, but that was some run at Navan, and if betting now, he’d be my play. There’s no way he should be that price on his Troytown run 40’s
No bet right now, but I’ll watch the market, and looking at three of them in particular, with an eye to sneaking a place…
Edwulf 16’s
Coney Island 33’s
Tout Est Permis 40’sIf betting right now, it would be Tout Est Permis, I just think the 40’s is wrong.
Some race in prospect, and hoping most of them head here.
December 23, 2018 at 23:08 #1390123Long term ill be interested in al boum
Photo, but not for this, i dont think he will run either, ground isnt quite there yet for alot of these and im pretty sure presenting percy wont run eitherThis will be a big bet on RTR for me although long term he wont be the best of these, but he should win this comfortably IMO 3/1 antepost now is way too big considering the doubts about mostly everything else turning up.
December 24, 2018 at 12:55 #1390151pretty much agree with you Ham- although, wouldn’t be certain R2R won’t still be the best of them in time.
ABP-i love, but needs to jump better.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!December 27, 2018 at 11:33 #1390367I would love to disagree, and have a different view, but Road To Respect all day long for me as well.
December 27, 2018 at 19:00 #1390418I’m going to roll the dice with Disko lads. A few question marks obviously but any late money would be interesting. Goes well fresh.
Disko 20/1 but will probably chuck in RtR too
December 27, 2018 at 19:38 #1390425Balko Des Flos and Anibale fly each way for me
Can’t understand shattered love being second favourite
December 27, 2018 at 20:57 #1390431Shattered Love looks quite appealing for this. Wasn’t a strong JLT she won but she did so very impressively. Won at the track last year and her John Durkan run was fine. Outlander has to be the bet though. Exceptional course record – 11132. Always been inconsistent, so I’m not too alarmed by his below par efforts this season. Back at his favourite track, in a race he’s won before. Great eachway price at 25/1. My main worry is that Kennedy is riding Shattered Love, Outlander can be a bit tricky on occasion. Road To Respect is the most likely winner but don’t see much value in his price. Bellshill is the least attractive betting proposition of the century going left-handed. Couldn’t back him in a seller here, let alone this race.
December 27, 2018 at 21:04 #1390433Monalee for me, has question marks regard staying the trip but did finish ahead of Elegant Escape in the RSA
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
December 27, 2018 at 22:32 #1390443Fav will be difficult to beat. At the prices i’ve went with Balko des Floss, and The Storyteller.
December 27, 2018 at 22:53 #1390444sticking with Road To Respect 5-1 ew
December 28, 2018 at 12:41 #1390504I’ve finslly settled on Edwulf. Outsider of the lot, but 66’s is too big for me to leave him.
Edwulf 66’s, and 50’s EW 4 Places
December 28, 2018 at 13:12 #1390508Shattered Love at 7s, with her weight concession should have a good chance
here after 2 good efforts behind Snow Falcon and Min. She did well on her only other start
at leopardstown when winning about this time last year. I also think that at 33s, Outlander,
who has shown his liking for here, is worth a back up e/w bet at those odds. The 2 of them
will do me
December 28, 2018 at 15:10 #1390528Who was RTR’S jockey? Shocker. Give the horse some room. Lol
December 28, 2018 at 15:14 #1390529Well that makes up for missing the boat! Bold move by the jockey mid race to send him to the front and the horse was enjoying it by the looks of it. I wouldn’t back him going right handed! – as it was he lost a fair bit of ground jumping left.
It’ll be interesting to see all these horses next time out and softer ground would shuffle the pack a bit.
December 28, 2018 at 15:24 #1390540Same jockey that won on him last year. He stumbled twice, but wow what a performance by the winner. Bellshill and Road to Respect rated 168 and 169 respectively finished within a length of each other probably a couple of pounds below each of their best when taking the left handed factor and rtr stumbling. Therefore maybe 166 and 167, Monalee running to about 168 and Kemboy running to about 176. Outstanding
December 28, 2018 at 15:30 #1390541David Mullins tried to settle him at the back and the horse was having none of it; when he let him take the lead I thought he just couldn’t handle him but wow what a run. That was really impressive.
December 28, 2018 at 15:39 #1390545Aye..it looked a bit like “fair enough, have it your own way”. They didn’t look to be going much pace for the first half despite the decent ground so by midway he probably thought the horse had a good chance of getting the 3 and there was no point fighting…
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