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Saptapadi ML put-away?

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  • #19461
    Avatar photoRacing Daily
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    • Total Posts 1416

    You decide …

    #368737
    Avatar photorobnorth
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    • Total Posts 8530

    Golden rule of racing:

    Keep your eyes open and your ears closed.

    Rob

    #368739
    Avatar photocormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 9347

    To be fair trainer made no absolutely no secret of the fact that they also strongly fancied the stable second string.

    #368740
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 34704

    The winner has only won once, many moons ago. Desperately hard to win with. Often travels well and finds little. There is no way anyone could (before the race) describe him as anything better than a "good each way chance".

    Saptapadi going back up in trip. Fallon couldn’t get enough cover from a high draw and raced a bit freely. Desite doing so, managed to get 5th place. Had he settled would have done even better. Apart from the front runner who was (obviously) able to get over to the rail, Saptapadi did best of those "poorly drawn".

    In my opinion the trainer deserves great credit for his excellent tipping.
    Anyone backing Saptapadi each way with those who pay 5 places would’ve made a profit.
    Anyone backing Moyenne Corniche each way would’ve made a packet.
    Anyone thinking they’ve been "put away" is an idiot.

    Value Is Everything
    #368741
    Avatar photookjoe57
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    • Total Posts 189

    Excuse my ignorance and/or naivety but .. what is this thread about?

    #368762
    Avatar photoRacing Daily
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    • Total Posts 1416

    Whatever Ginger, whatever.
    I had quite a good rant prepared, and was close to submitting it, but what’s the point right?

    Excuse my ignorance and/or naivety but .. what is this thread about?

    I was proposing that Mr Ellison put away viewers of today’s morning line by being bullish about his horse whilst the 2nd string that was well held by several of today’s runners in just it’s last race scoots up and finds around 20lbs in the process.
    I’d say that anyone who backed today’s winner was an idiot. The fact it won is irrelevant, on form it couldn’t.

    #368772
    Avatar photoJJMSports
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    • Total Posts 2034

    Golden rule of racing:

    Keep your eyes open and your ears closed.

    Rob

    This man speaks sense.

    #368775
    Avatar photocormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 9347

    RD – Ellison was almost as bullish about the winner. He made no bones about the fact that he fancied it also. Both of them ran well, the winner just found a bit more.

    I thought Tactician was given a fantastic ride by O’Brien. What a loss it’ll be if he has to give up eventually because of weight. He reminds me of Piggott, and I don’t say that lightly.

    #368781
    Coggy
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    • Total Posts 1415

    Hi Corm
    I would be interested to hear why you are reminded of Lester, who in my mind was one of the greatest of all time.
    What on earth has young master O’Brien done to earn that comparison. As far as I can see he is a competent young jockey, no more, who has benefitted from his family relations.
    He even struggles to obtain rides from outside his nest in Ballydoyle

    #368785
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Actually, Corm, I thought he set off like he was riding one of his dad’s pacemakers, and that he finished where he did owed more to the horse than his pilot. A more savvy jockey would probably have won on him.
    Re Brian Ellison; why anyone would think that a trainer – who trained a horse to just fail to last home in a Northumberland Plate, and then dropped him back to 10f – would put anyone away, escapes me completely. :lol:

    #368792
    Avatar photoRedRum77
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1533

    Actually, Corm, I thought he set off like he was riding one of his dad’s pacemakers, and that he finished where he did owed more to the horse than his pilot. A more savvy jockey would probably have won on him.
    Re Brian Ellison; why anyone would think that a trainer – who trained a horse to just fail to last home in a Northumberland Plate, and then dropped him back to 10f – would put anyone away, escapes me completely. :lol:

    I thought Tactician was ridden like he truly stayed the distance and he did. Entering the home straight he looked in trouble but the way he rallied he had everything but the winner in trouble.

    The winner was given by the trainer as an each way shot according to the channel 4 presenters. While Saptapadi didn’t settle in the early paces.

    #368796
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    The trainer was confident that both his horses would run well, which they did, This is after all the richest handicap these horses are going to contest. The winner’s race record was reflected in his price but for the trainer to say definitively that his horses are going to do anything other than run well in a race of this nature would be fanning the flames of optimism.

    #368797
    Avatar photoyeats
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    • Total Posts 3728

    If a trainer knew what was going to happen in a wide open Ebor I suspect he wouldn’t need to be training.

    #368801
    Avatar photocormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 9347

    Aye, I know O’Brien is several light years from achieving Piggot-like status. I just said he reminds me of him is all.

    Probably a physical thing, with the height meaning he has to maintain a similar posture, but he also seems to relax them in the way LP did. He is also very composed.

    Very, very good judge of pace too. His ride in the Derby and that yesterday, where the horses stayed on showed that he’d judged it pretty much bang on.

    Very, very few jockeys as inexperienced as he (and he is very inexperienced), could have ridden either of those two races with the composure he showed.

    And you could just as easily argue that, under another jockey, Tactician would have been out with the washing as argue that he would have won under another, more ‘savvy’, pilot.

    No, I maintain there are echoes of the greatest jockey in young O’Brien and that he’ll be a big loss to the weighing room.

    #368824
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 34704

    Did Joseph get Tactician’s girth checked out at the start?
    If not, it may have cost the Queen an Ebor. Having said that, considering the slipping saddle, Master O’Brien did well to keep the horse going.

    Value Is Everything
    #368949
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 34704

    Whatever Ginger, whatever.
    I had quite a good rant prepared, and was close to submitting it, but what’s the point right?

    Excuse my ignorance and/or naivety but .. what is this thread about?

    I was proposing that Mr Ellison put away viewers of today’s morning line by being bullish about his horse whilst the 2nd string that was well held by several of today’s runners in just it’s last race scoots up and finds around 20lbs in the process.
    I’d say that anyone who backed today’s winner was an idiot. The fact it won is irrelevant, on form it couldn’t.

    Apologies RD, "idiot" was far too strong. It was a reaction to yet another punter thinking he’d been put away. However, calling a forum member an idiot is nowhere near as bad as "proposing a trainer put punters away", when there are obvious form / temperament reasons any punter can see.

    As Corm says, Ellison was bullish about Moyenne Corniche’s each way chance. The horse is known to be temperamental, difficult to win with and inconsistent. "20lbs" improvement possibly due to going up half a mile in trip. But the main reason can easily be put down to MC’s state of mind rather than connections deliberately stopping the horse. According to Timeform Perspective he’d touched odds-on in three of four races prior to the run on July 9th and got beat. Add to that the fact he’d only won one race before Saturday tells you all you need to know. It is the horse, not trainer who is untrustworthy. Nobody, (including his trainer) knew just what Moyenne Corniche was capable of when putting it all in.

    Value Is Everything
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