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Not believing my eys here. I’m not a short price punter so its not for me but this filly you can get 15/8 for the Guineas trial at Leopardstown this afternoon. Is that just crazy or what?
A dual group 1 winning filly as a two year old, conditions fine and her chief rival is a horse yet to win a race and rated 27 pounds below her.
I know Psalm is an O’Brien horse and beautifully bred but not for seven furlongs she won’t be at her best till she goes at least 10 furlongs.
Am I missing something?
Soairse Abu’s best form has come on decent ground, which is obviously a negative given the forecast for today’s going at Leopardstown, and her trainer isn’t exactly in scintillating form.
Psalm on the other hand did incredibly well to finish so close to Kitty Matcham on debut, running over far too short a trip on good ground, and would seem to be far better suited to today’s conditions – easy under foot (by Sadler’s Wells) and up in trip. The form of her debut has worked out brilliantly, with the winner taking the Rockfel next time, and O’Brien has made an encouraging start to the season with the few runners he has had.
Psalm looks much the likelier winner to me.
Psalm finished second by a neck to the Rockfel winner Kitty Matcham, last season, when giving her 7lbs. She apparently worked well last week after racing at the curragh, and has been thumped in the 1,000 guineas betting. Further more she is a massive positive for todays race, I think its a case of watch this space.
I backed Saoirse abu last year for the 1,000 guineas, but must admit I am somewhat worried now as she is a big negative in the betting for that race, a big negative in the betting today and Bolger didnt see the need to run Finsceal Beo in a prep race last season. If Saoirse Abu was to win today then I would be confident that she is up to winning the guineas, but my feeling is that she hasn’t trained on. Bolger says he is expecting a big run, but he said something simialr about lush lashes last week.
I may have a little e/w on Prendergasts, as he is usually in good form at this time of year and won last weekends group3 with Marjalina. Dash Back is nicely bred enough (although not so much for todays conditions), but the vibes are that the o’brien filly, who I wont be backing, will win this doing handstands.
Regardless of positives and negatives, Saoirse Abu on form should be 4/6 at best today surely?
Not talking neccessarily about who will win the race but from merely a value point of you she is ridiculously big isn’t she?
Just listened to it on Paddy Power, Saoirse Abu didnt sound great, they reckon the saddle slipped on Psalm. Dash back was rubbish.
Another irish early season win for a Danehill Dancer.
Saoirse Abu ran Ok but not as you’d expect for a dual Group 1 winner in a group 3. Dunno what happened to Psalm but she was right out the back. Will be much better over further anyway.
The thing with Saoirse Abu, what you see now is what you get and she’s never going to be any better than a high 100’s filly. I think she took advantage of circumstances on a couple of occasions last year and was well and truly put in her place in the Fillies Mile. A pity about what happened to Psalm, I suggested after Naas that Kitty Matcham would never beat her again and then saw that one with the Rockfel next time, so I’m hoping for big things from her and today was basically a waste of time.
Saoirse Abu ran Ok but not as you’d expect for a dual Group 1 winner in a group 3. Dunno what happened to Psalm but she was right out the back. Will be much better over further anyway.
The saddle slipped on Psalm after a couple of furlongs. I don’t know why you think Psalm will be suited to a stamina test, perhaps it is simply because she is by Sadler’s Wells. Psalm will probably struggle to get 10 furlongs…or it should certainly be at the extreme level of her stamina gauge. She started out over 6 furlongs (having also been left in the Cheveley Park at the 5 day stage).
Her sister Queen Titi won at listed level over a mile having failed to get home over 10 furlongs. All her dam’s pedigree suggests a mile will be no problem to her with 10 furlongs being a possible but no guarantee.
I’d be along the same lines as Aidan regarding trip requirements for Psalm. Likely to relish 1m and a probably stayer at 10f.
Saoirse Abu ran Ok but not as you’d expect for a dual Group 1 winner in a group 3. Dunno what happened to Psalm but she was right out the back. Will be much better over further anyway.
The saddle slipped on Psalm after a couple of furlongs. I don’t know why you think Psalm will be suited to a stamina test, perhaps it is simply because she is by Sadler’s Wells. Psalm will probably struggle to get 10 furlongs…or it should certainly be at the extreme level of her stamina gauge. She started out over 6 furlongs (having also been left in the Cheveley Park at the 5 day stage).
Her sister Queen Titi won at listed level over a mile having failed to get home over 10 furlongs. All her dam’s pedigree suggests a mile will be no problem to her with 10 furlongs being a possible but no guarantee.
She’s by an Irish River mare and Sadlers Wells influence suggests she’ll certainly want more than seven furlongs I think she’ll certainly get ten furlongs.
I wouldn’t expect Saoirse Abu to improve from 2 to 3, but connections would have to be a bit disappointed with her today.
Her full sister didn’t, nor any of her dam’s other progeny.
She may get ten furlongs but she should certainly be effective at 7 furlongs (at this stage of her career) and a mile should be perfect for her. Sadler’s Wells is not necessarily a stamina influence on his own.
I thought Saoirse Abu was a good thing too Flash but it looked comprehensely outclassed today.
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