April 27, 2007 at 11:24 #1522
Some nice animals lining up for this today and should be a cracker of a race.
Last years BC Turf winner Red Rocks lines up for his seasonal re-appearance (In the UK). Without wishing to crab the form too much, i’m of the opinion the BC turf wasn’t the strongest race you’ll ever see and there are plenty of better middle distance horses around than red rocks. Having said that he was a consistent G1/G2 performer last year and barring his debut and last run has never finished out of the first three. I have a feeling he needs the 12f to be at his best so i’ll be against him.
Notnowcato made giant strides last year and won the juddmonte. I was there for that and to be honest Dylan Thomas was all over the place that day and would fancy him to reverse the placings with notnowcato and maraahel but his progress can’t be denied. Big chance as this is his trip.
Mountain High for me is group 3 at best having never won anything better than a conditions stakes and finishing second in one sub-standard G2 and one decent G2. On that form you’d give him a chance but it was over 12f and I think he lacks a turn of foot.
Art Deco could have come on over the winter and is the dark horse in the betting. Mashaahed isn;t quite up to this.
The one that interests me is Kandidate. Providing the ground is actually quick at Sandown today and Sanders gets him prominent early I can see him running a big race. He has the benefit of a couple of runs already this year and 10f is his trip these days. He also has a good turn of foot which if he gets a lead may prove decisive. At the prices, he’s the one for me.
(Edited by Aragorn at 12:25 pm on April 27, 2007)April 27, 2007 at 13:11 #55507
Got that one wrong!!! Mountain High set a pretty quick early gallop (Holt said they were going a steady gallop at best, which he retracted after they finished hugely strung out!!!) and Kandidate was there in the box seat but got outstayed by RR. Shame Kandidate didn;t get the lead otherwise I think it would have been a different race… Sanders tried to get there but they were obviously intent on setting a good pace on mountain high..April 27, 2007 at 13:21 #55508aphardyMember
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Just a quick query – what happens on Betfair if you lay a horse that subsequently dead-heats? Are the rules the same in that odds are halved?April 27, 2007 at 13:32 #55509
No Idea but my tenner on Arcalis returned the princely sum of Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£7.52 in willy hills.. I don’t know why I always go to the bookies on a frday lunch cos I always lose…
I would assume the rules would be the same.. It should tell you in the rules section of the betting market. Can;t access it now to tell you.April 27, 2007 at 19:56 #55510ClintMMember
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Quote: from Aragorn on 12:24 pm on April 27, 2007[br]Some nice animals lining up for this today and should be a cracker of a race.
Last years BC Turf winner Red Rocks lines up for his seasonal re-appearance (In the UK). Without wishing to crab the form too much, i’m of the opinion the BC turf wasn’t the strongest race you’ll ever see and there are plenty of better middle distance horses around than red rocks.
(Edited by Aragorn at 12:25 pm on April 27, 2007)<br>
RR’s can thank one person for his BC win : Dettori. Frankie’s pace awareness was spot on at Churchill – most of the others went what turned out to be suicidal fractions, and he (Dettori) had the sense to lay of the pace . Dettori certainly Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â showed a few jocks that day how to ride a 12f turf race.
(Edited by ClintM at 8:59 pm on April 27, 2007)April 27, 2007 at 20:23 #55511roryParticipant
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Quote: from aphardy on 2:21 pm on April 27, 2007[br]Just a quick query – what happens on Betfair if you lay a horse that subsequently dead-heats? Are the rules the same in that odds are halved?
The rule is that your stake is halved. It’s also true that it’s equivalent of your stake at "half the odds" but that confuses people who think that half of 4/1 is 2/1 for example. Half of 4/1 is actually 6/4.
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