Park Stakes 2015

[Chivers1987]

This looks a good renewal of this race with most of them likely to run even if the rain changes the going.

Ansgar won this race last year but went into it in really good nick, something he isn’t doing this year. Brazos looks out of his depth along with Toocoolforschool but the latter may well improve if the ground turns up soft.
Breton Rock, Cable Bay and Coulsty all ran respectable races in the Hungerford stakes, the first two have run again since when quite a way behind Kodi Bear 2 weeks ago in the celebration mile on soft going. That might have taken enough out of them to dismiss them here.
The more rain the better for Coulsty and he isn’t without a hope.

Lightning Moon runs for the first time in 122 days and will probably just need this, although if the forecast 9mm-15mm hits then he also has a chance based on his 6f group 3 win on soft ground last year.
Naadirr has wishy washy form, isn’t sure to appreciate 7f and will be hindered by any change in the going.
Safety Check ran a blinder in behind Toormore at Glorious Goodwood with top weight and good to soft ground against him but he is still a little undesirable if it isn’t good ground tomorrow. He has progressed tremendously well from last year though, caning his rivals at Meydan early in the year. I am avoiding him at my peril.
Code Red has room to improve but this looks too good a race for him to get involved along with Markaz

Ivawood and Limato are very interesting contenders but will likely be pulled from the race unless the forecast rain stays away, though Ivawood should take his chance if it is good to soft. Limato is stepping up to 7f for the first time and needs a race under his belt so may well be left in.
Tupi was showing some clever form this year before running a stinker in the race he contested with Safety Check and anyway he looks well held on form with my selection.

Home Of The Brave showed a fair amount of progression when bolting up in the group 3 Minstrel stakes at the Curragh 55 days ago, beating an in form at the time Gordon Lord Byron by 3 and a half lengths. He did get a nice weight allowance all round but got the job done in good fashion.
The ground had yield in it that day and I am hoping we only see a maximum of about 7mm overnight to give the ground a little bit of cut, but not enough to come up soft.
Harry Bentley jumps on for the first time on this one and he has been building a decent rapport with Hugo Palmer, who is having a fine season.

It’s a tough race to call, as is the rest of the card and the Irish races but he is my each way NAP selection of the day at 6/1

[stevecaution]

It’s a tricky race, I think I would side with Lightning Moon at 11/1 and hope it rains.

He had a good season on softish ground last year and it’s worth recalling that he was favourite for his only start this season.

Although only seventh in the Group 2 Duke Of York, it was all heads, necks and noses, so he was only beaten just over two lengths. Muthmir and Mattmu, from that race, won group races later.

If the rain comes and he’s reasonably straight he should have a chance here. He’s lighty raced, boasts a 75% strike rate and is totally unexposed at the trip. Some of the others won’t want much rain and I feel 11/1 is too big a price to pass up given questions about quite few of them.

Lightning Moon each-way 11/1 would be my call,

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Stunning win by Limato, pity he hadn’t done that at Royal Ascot when I had him ante-post at 6/1, in a treble with Free Eagle at the same odds and Solow at 7/2

Lightning Moon was well supported, in from 11/1 to 6/1 and was the subject of a confident report from his trainer just before the race, where he told us the horse was special and, in his opinion a group 1 horse. Sadly the horse didn’t read the script and found zero, running like a scabby donkey. The trainer must be deluded I think.

Ivawood was the big disappointment, again, and Jim McGrath’s statement that he was too big a price proved incorrect. He travelled OK early but as soon as he was asked to go on he started going backwards looking nothing like a horse who had placed in two Guineas’. Another bitter blow for the Hannon stable and surely retirement awaits for this son of Zebedee, the stallion who failed to make the racecourse at 3yo in his day.

I think Home Of The Brave probably needs the ground faster and the stable just aren’t getting many winners of late. The ATR stats for the last 14 days have him at a 7% strike rate and that’s always concerning.

Safety Check was one I didn’t fancy at the early odds and he never landed a blow.

Naadirr ran well at his huge odds and was more like his opening race this year where he had looked a potentially smart horse, only to flop completely next time.

Only one horse in this race today though and Mick Fitzgerald’s comment that Limato still looked a two year old in a race for older horses was rammed down his throat by Limato

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Chivers1987]

I annoy myself sometimes/most of the time. I’ve backed Limato in every race he has been in and the way he has run on in his previous races should have given me licence to back him again.
I got sucked in by that win over in Ireland by HOTB and he ran a shocker today.

I can only blame myself……and last night’s whiskey

[LD73]

The Foret looks tailor made for him and given that is how he performs on unsuitable ground, you wonder what all the fuss was about.

I also think a BC Mile could be a consideration as well being on likely quick ground and a tight turning track would probably suit a small horse like him.

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