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What do ya mean JP wants me in Green and Gold?
http://i41.tinypic.com/2nqbal5.jpg
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Hahaha, AP prepares to ride Jet-Ski to glory
.Steeplechasing – I’d love to see weights before the race today, but obviously I won’t. Our Conor seemed to dwarf the rest.
[attachment=0:1nevh07k]Paintislessthanuseless.png[/attachment:1nevh07k]I got this far before throwing a hissy fit…
Hahaha, AP prepares to ride Jet-Ski to glory
.Steeplechasing – I’d love to see weights before the race today, but obviously I won’t. Our Conor seemed to dwarf the rest.
I just had another look to check my own interpretation. Much of this is perception and perspective, but I got the impression he is no taller than the others and might even have a wee bet that he is shorter.
It sounds daft, but a deceptive aspect, I think, is that big white blaze and the sock on his near fore which gives the eye something to measure top to toe – a relatively rare thing, and perhaps that tricks the eye, because it’s not seen in the others. That’s my theory, anyway!
I’ve never quite ‘got’ Hurricane Fly
I must admit to being afflicted with the same condition. Like when I’m telling my grandchildren about the top two mile hurdlers from my youth, I will always put Istabraq above Hurricane Fly.
How do you compare the two?
The Fly is under-rated because he has never been at his best in C’Ham. But consider the horses he has been beating regualarly and convincingly, all high achievers; Solwhit, Thousand Stars, Quevega.
To call them Mickey Mouse races is insulting and ignorantI’ve never quite ‘got’ Hurricane Fly
I must admit to being afflicted with the same condition. Like when I’m telling my grandchildren about the top two mile hurdlers from my youth, I will always put Istabraq above Hurricane Fly.
How do you compare the two?
The Fly is under-rated because he has never been at his best in C’Ham. But consider the horses he has been beating regualarly and convincingly, all high achievers; Solwhit, Thousand Stars, Quevega.
To call them Mickey Mouse races is insulting and ignorantAnd when did he beat Quevega???
Jezki is a Slovene term which is pronounced Ye(‘soft’ sh – as in treasure) ki…
Yeshki
But today it was
No
hki for him.
There seemed little confidence in anything bar the Fly today and no wonder with his record and the fact he was facing main rivals with enough to prove and about a stone to find on the ratings.
I said earlier in the year that Our Conor wasn’t one I could have for the Champion Hurdle next year and he’s a top boy trying to mix it with men this season. The mythology surrounding him took a big dent today but he’s still a horse with a big future, although probably he will reach full fruition in the next few seasons rather than now.
Jezki has a good looking string of form but he’s been warm, hot and red hot favourite during many of his runs. He may be one of those nearly horses for my money and he’s 0 for 2 at Cheltenham. Those are enough reasons for me to rule him out as a Champion.
Hurricane Fly keeps on winning but my feeling is that The Christmas Hurdle was a stronger race. I fancied The New One at the start of the season but he is managing to lose races he seemed to have put to bed, and even when he beat Zarkandar there was a moment when it looked like he might do so again. I have much less confidence in him now and am leaning towards My Tent Or Yours as the Champion in waiting.
The best of luck to the Fly in making it a treble but I’ll be stuck with the memory of him letting me down for an ante-post fivefold when only managing third behind Rock On Ruby in 2012. Enough to make you eat your young!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
How do you compare the two?
The Fly is under-rated because he has never been at his best in C’Ham. But consider the horses he has been beating regualarly and convincingly, all high achievers; Solwhit, Thousand Stars, Quevega.
To call them Mickey Mouse races is insulting and ignorantAnd when did he beat Quevega???
You are right; a memory lapse, she was third to Solwhit in the 2008 Punchestown Champion Hurdle, Punjabi, the then Champion Hurdler was second
Hurricane fly is a better horse than any other hurdler around, today or over the past few years. Theres no significant doubt about that.
However, I think he is operating in sub optimal conditions for him at Cheltenham and I expect him to be beaten again this year. Day by day, Im getting more suspicious of The New One, he has already gotten himself beaten on several occasions and his form doesnt read that strongly really. Im pretty sure one of the McManus horses will will go very close, probably the Irish trained one.
SHL
I find it nothing short of astonishing The New one is the AP favourite for the Champion Hurdle.
Well, I’ve had a decent bet on The New One at a very fair price, but am concerned about two things: as TBBrother says, he’s yet to put in a good speed figure – I’m assuming that’s more to do with the shape of the races he’s run in than anything else, but the fact remains that until he proves it, the doubt remains.
He also seems to need things to fall his way in a top notch race – especially the hold up aspect. He can race with enthusiasm from the front, but his Neptune Victory shows how he really needs a race to pan out. Which returns us to the speed aspect: the Neptune was not a fast-run race. The Champion Hurdle will almost certainly be. That will be the day he either puts in his first top notch speed figure, or a fast pace finds him out at the death.
As is often the case, the trials for a big race are producing more questions than answers.
The five horses at the top of the Champion Hurdle market have ran in the two Grade 1 two mile hurdle races in the past week, and I’m sure the connections of all five will still look to Cheltenham with belief that their horse can win the Champion Hurdle.
There was nothing between the two British horses in the Christmas Hurdle, maybe the result would have been different had The New One jumped the last fluently but I reckon both horses are capable of better performances in March. A faster pace would help My Tent Or Yours settle better while it could also be argued that The New One will be seen in a better light running at a strong pace rather than having to make his own running. I don’t know what will make the running at Cheltenham but there’ll surely be a faster pace there than at Kempton. I think Sam Twiston Davies rode a near perfect race on The New One, dictating a moderate gallop before getting first run on McCoy when they turned into the straight. If he’d jumped the last better he’d probably have won. At Cheltenham I’d have a slight fancy for the McManus horse of the pair but there seems so little between them that I couldn’t be confident about that.
Hurricane Fly confirmed himself the standout hurdler of this era with a blistering performance at Leopardstown. Mullins says there’s half a stone of improvement to come and given how unfit he was on his seasonal debut then you’d have to think he’ll come on again for this run. As soon as he hit the front it was game over for the rest. He’s yet to show his best at Cheltenham imo but I’d love to see him win a third Champion.
Jezki supporters can take plenty from the race as McCoy appeared out-ridden by one Danny Mullins on this occasion, before staying on well for second in the closing stages. He would surely have been closer but for being hampered and he stays the Champion Hurdle distance very well. I’m not sure he can reverse form with My Tent Or Yours but again there wasn’t much between them when they met.
Our Conor was the big eye catcher of the race. He cruised around the bend turning in and was going well enough to easily hold his ground against Jezki but had no answer to Hurricane Fly when he ranged alongside. He’s obviously has a setback or two this season and I’d say he’ll come on quite a bit for the run, having looked to blow up after the last. The way Dessie Hughes has been talking, he’s being trained for one day only and he could be the value now at 9/1.
I confessed I hadn’t a notion who’d win the Champion Hurdle a few weeks back and after this week I must admit I’m certainly none the wiser!
I have small money on Annie Power and Un De Sceaux who look lively outsiders and if forced to put my hand in my pocket again today I’d go with Our Conor at 9/1.
Connections of Our Conor said before the race he could not be any ready for the race?
"Our Conor was the big eye catcher of the race. He cruised around the bend turning in and was going well enough to easily hold his ground against Jezki but had no answer to Hurricane Fly when he ranged alongside. He’s obviously has a setback or two this season and I’d say he’ll come on quite a bit for the run, having looked to blow up after the last. The way Dessie Hughes has been talking, he’s being trained for one day only and he could be the value now at 9/1."
Completely agree with the above gentleman who wrote this.
However i would also add that OC is only four and having his first race over hurdles this season following a holdup after the November handicap at Leopardstown.Also Mullins had enough horse to block McCoy when he needed to.Tony must have realised that his only chance of catching the Fly was to go up the inside.It did not work out but it tells something about what was going on in Tony’s head when he tried that move.Bet he reverts to MTOY’s for Cheltenham.Incidentally afterwords he was heard to say he could not figure out how to beat the Fly!Well, I’ve had a decent bet on The New One at a very fair price, but am concerned about two things: as TBBrother says, he’s yet to put in a good speed figure – I’m assuming that’s more to do with the shape of the races he’s run in than anything else, but the fact remains that until he proves it, the doubt remains.
He also seems to need things to fall his way in a top notch race – especially the hold up aspect. He can race with enthusiasm from the front, but his Neptune Victory shows how he really needs a race to pan out. Which returns us to the speed aspect: the Neptune was not a fast-run race. The Champion Hurdle will almost certainly be. That will be the day he either puts in his first top notch speed figure, or a fast pace finds him out at the death.
Is there a correlation between speed ratings prior to Cheltenham and the eventual winner ?
Is there a correlation between speed ratings prior to Cheltenham and the eventual winner ?
Not directly, and I’m no speed specialist by any means. But I’d rather have the comfort of knowing The New One is capable of running very fast if he needs to, rather than just fast enough to beat the opposition under the conditions the race is run in.
THM, lovely write-up again, thanks. You are almost talking me back on to Our Conor. I thought he had to win that to have a strong chance of winning the big one.
I’ve gone back and watched the race again a few times, and you make a fair point about how well OC travels turning in (after missing 2 out). But with that in mind, wouldn’t you have expected him to find something off the bridle? Not necessarily enough to win it, but something? He jumps the last upsides the Fly. Mullins gives him 3 smacks – two of them pretty serious, and he found not an ounce.
Mullins, wisely, did not persevere, but Jezki, who’d jumped the last a length behind him and without the same momentum passed him fairly easily under little more than hands and heels riding and beat him 3 lengths.
I looked back at his defeats on the flat – again he seems to find little off the bridle.
I’ve no doubt he’ll be a fitter horse come the big day, but W Mullins is saying he’ll get at least another 5lbs improvement from Hurricane Fly.
Of the principals, I got the impression Jezki will be most suited by the Cheltenham hill. AP was just beginning his run turning in, and fair play to young Mullins who spotted it and simply outrode the champ on a horse with more tactical speed. I think pride/embarrassment might have made AP keep trying for much longer then he should have before pulling back and coming round them.
The Fly had flown before AP got Jezki balanced and running again, but at Cheltenham, with luck, I think you might see a different result.
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