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Well maybe it would be better to watch the race rather than rely on in running comments. Knockara Beau jumped markedly to the left at every fence, he took half of the fences with him and was still closing down Burton at the line. If he’d even jumped adequately and no better he would have won the race comfortably. Just watch the race and tell me honestly which one you would take out of the race for the future. If Knockara jumps like that at cheltenham he wont complete the race but i expect him to put in a much better round of jumping going the right way (the left way
)and at least he’s proved he can survive a serious blunder (or six as the last day proved). There are speedier types in the line up but not many tougher and trainer has said all along that he would only be 100% for this race and everything else was a build up.Knockara Beau is an interesting one.
He has plenty for AND against him.
He could easily run into the places at a huge price…..
Depends on how the Ascot ‘fence hitting’ experience has left him!
Well maybe it would be better to watch the race rather than rely on in running comments. Knockara Beau jumped markedly to the left at every fence, he took half of the fences with him and was still closing down Burton at the line. If he’d even jumped adequately and no better he would have won the race comfortably. Just watch the race and tell me honestly which one you would take out of the race for the future. If Knockara jumps like that at cheltenham he wont complete the race but i expect him to put in a much better round of jumping going the right way (the left way
)and at least he’s proved he can survive a serious blunder (or six as the last day proved). There are speedier types in the line up but not many tougher and trainer has said all along that he would only be 100% for this race and everything else was a build up.You suggest ‘nearly got to’ about a horse beaten four lengths and you ask me if I watched the race? Yes, Knockara Beau did jump poorly – not for the first time – but he is very unlikely to reverse the form. I wouldn’t give him a second thought at 33/1.
I accept "nearly got to" was a bit over the top, but he was closing down Burton Port to the line and he lost all rhythm with his jumping after an early mistake. I really believe that he will at least reverse the form with Burton Port and maybe fill the frame or better. We’ll have our mythical match bet so and best of luck to both pilots and beasts!
I’d back Knockara Beau to beat Burton Port EVERY time on a left hand course….and yes I’ve watched the race a couple of times.
Of course a proper jockey on "Beau" would completely seal Burton Port’s fate
I could just about see KB run into a place (3rd)
1. Diamond Harry
2. Punchstowns
3. ?????Wide openI’d back Knockara Beau to beat Burton Port EVERY time on a left hand course….and yes I’ve watched the race a couple of times.
Of course a proper jockey on "Beau" would completely seal Burton Port’s fate
I could just about see KB run into a place (3rd)
1. Diamond Harry
2. Punchstowns
3. ?????Wide openThat’s two mythical bets then? Hopefully, Ladbrokes will chalk up the two as one of their match bets.
Long Run jumps better than Diamond Harry
You ARE having a laugh….aren’t you??? If Long Run gets as far as the third last (which I doubt) that’ll be as far as he gets
and is far classier
Disagree
Oh can’t jump and all that, heard it all before, kauto being the best example. Not bothered about it at all, if Harry is still in the race at the third last I’ll be amazed – Bensalem runs in a handicap off 143 and Punchy got far closer to the mighty Big Bucks than Harry could ever dream about.
Diamond Harry doesnt appear to be good enough to me at the very top level for me.
If I were looking outside the top two it would be Citizen Vic for me.
Oh can’t jump and all that, heard it all before,
If you really believe his fencing isn’t a problem I strongly advise… with your best interests at heart… that you watch his last two runs before laying out any cash….belt & braces
kauto being the best example. Not bothered about it at all, if Harry is still in the race at the third last I’ll be amazed – Bensalem runs in a handicap off 143 and Punchy got far closer to the mighty Big Bucks than Harry could ever dream about.
I’ve watched him several times. His jumping does not concern me at all.
Not sure how much clearer I need to be
Diamond Harry doesnt appear to be good enough to me at the very top level for me.
If I were looking outside the top two it would be Citizen Vic for me.
Agree with that. Diamond Harry is a good horse but not good enough for the very top. Does not jump straight enough under pressure for my liking.
I’ve been a huge fan of Punchestowns since his chasing debut, but I’m less confident after his well publicised setback.
I have no qualms about Long Run’s jumping. None whatsoever. Many will highlight his Boxing Day blunders at Kempton, but I think he’s a fine athlete and would be very surprised if he hit the deck.
Kempton, along with Sandown, is a big test for any novice chaser. The fences are tough and they come at you very quickly. You need to negotiate them at speed and that’s the biggest challenge for any chaser – speed kills, as they say.
The general consensus after his impressive display was "He’ll learn from that". Not something I necessarily agree with. I like to see a novice treat their fences with respect after a mistake. Take Punchestowns at Sandown as an example. After his sole mistake, he was very careful at the next two obstacles – giving them plenty of air – before regaining his confidence (well done, Barry Geraghty) and jumping fluently.
I was pleased to see Long Run jump so well at Warwick next time out. Again, not an easy test for a novice. Regardless of what many may believe, I don’t think Cheltenham is the greatest test of a horses jumping ability. It does place the emphasis on stamina – another question mark hanging over Nicky Henderson’s horse – but Long Run has won over two miles-five on testing ground in his native country and the trip does not bother me, either.
Sam Waley-Cohen is a fine horseman (22% SR over fences during the last five seasons, according to RP online), but you have to think that in such a competitive race he could be the difference between winning and losing.
However, he has a three-from-three record aboard Long Run and you can’t argue with that.
Long Run is arguably the most prodigious talent to emerge from France in some time. His form figures are more impressive than the likes of Big Buck’s, Master Minded and even Kauto Star and his prominence in both novice antepost markets is a huge compliment to his ability.
He would be a certainty if a more experienced professional was in the saddle, I believe. A lot will depend on the wellbeing of Punchestowns, but I can’t fancy that horse after a setback this close to The Festival and Weapon’s Amnesty is my ew bet in the race now that Pandorama misses out.
After analysing this race, I’m going to side with
Punchestowns
. Nicky Henderson is confident his little setback has not affected him and look at what he achieved with Binocular on Tuesday.
The best of these over hurdles, he’s been near faultless over the bigger obstacles in his two starts and recovered from a mistake to win in decisive fashion at Sandown over two miles-five.
He’s not short of pace for a horse who won a Long Walk Hurdle and jumps as well as anything in the field.
Weapon’s Amnesty is still my idea of the ew value. Narrowly failed to catch Pandorama in a Leopardstown Grade One and proved his liking for the course last year. Not the most natural jumper in this sphere, but he is clever and I think he will jump better the faster they go, which would also bring his stamina into play.
Citizen Vic (who will struggle to confirm from over this longer trip), Flight Leader, Knockara Beau and Little Josh will make it a true test of stamina.
Nothing will make me happier than to see Long Run win impressively. The most talented horse in the field, but I can’t help but have reservations about Sam Waley-Cohen in such a competitive race.
We saw how a more experienced jockey can make a big difference in the Supreme Novices’ on Tuesday.
With huge question marks hanging over the first four in the betting where jumping’s concerned – and I mean HUGE – I’m going with snake hips
Burton Port
to jump these silly, under an aggressive McCoy ride.
A trouble-free round – which is the very least you can expect – will see him a good 10lbs in with these classier, but rather wayward accidents waiting to happen. An absolute E/W shoe-in!
Citizen Vic for me, too. As people have said before, there aren’t all that many longer distance races in Ireland, so they tend to be campaigned over shorter trips. There are question marks over the other horses and, to be honest, this is a dark horse for me, so could be anything. [spoken as a true mug punter of the highest order!]
Citizen Vic for me, too. As people have said before, there aren’t all that many longer distance races in Ireland, so they tend to be campaigned over shorter trips. There are question marks over the other horses and, to be honest, this is a dark horse for me, so could be anything. [spoken as a true mug punter of the highest order!]
But his win in Ireland the other week was on soft ground; will he be so effective on decent good ground?
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