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Do you betfair guys lay odds on horses not completing the course? You’ll know who I’m talking about if I say RSA
Well it aint Weird al Chelters,he"ll skip round!
Just seen the latest bulletin on Sky Sports news and they say Punchestowns was lame this morning and misses Cheltenham? Am thinking now whether I misheard and they said ‘may’ miss Cheltenham, but I’m pretty sure I heard right??
Is there any confirmation of this anywhere?
he’s still about 6/1 on betfair, so whilst it isnt good news, i’m presuming its a "may" miss cheltenham situ? the race opens right up now though, cant believe an amateur ridden long run is now shorter than what punchestowns was!!
he’s still about 6/1 on betfair, so whilst it isnt good news, i’m presuming its a "may" miss cheltenham situ? the race opens right up now though, cant believe an amateur ridden long run is now shorter than what punchestowns was!!
According to my morning paper ….OK not the racing press but theDaily Mail…. Punchestowns has gone lame twice in the last few days, xray show nothing.
Also says "The King’s Suit Of Clothes" (AKA Long Run) is now 5-2 fav…has the world gone TOTALLY mad?? I’d wan’t at least 5-2 against him getting round never mind winning. Diamond Harry must be the only thing bewteeen Weird Al and RSA glory
Punchestowns sound after Saturday canter
By Lee Mottershead 1:28PM 6 MAR 2010THE prospect of Punchestowns fulfilling his Cheltenham Festival engagement received a major boost on Saturday when the leading RSA Chase fancy, reported to be lame on Thursday evening, was able to canter a mile on trainer Nicky Henderson’s gallops.
Last season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle runner-up was a significant drifter in the RSA betting on Friday after Henderson revealed that the star novice had a problem with his near-fore foot.
However, Punchestowns was sound on Saturday morning and able to exercise alongside other members of his trainer’s string, fuelling hopes that the Scilly Isles Chase winner will be able to join stablemate Long Run in an exceptional running of the novices’ Gold Cup.
Henderson, whose seven-year-old drifted to as big as 9-2 on Friday, said: "We had a sound horse this morning and he was able to canter a mile. We have had to keep everybody posted and yesterday he wasn’t sound, but this morning he was.
"It really shouldn’t be a problem. He was 100 per cent after cantering and we now have to keep our fingers crossed that he’s sound tonight.
"I think he was always more likely to run at Cheltenham than not run at Cheltenham. Nobody ever said he wouldn’t get to the Festival, just that he was lame. Having said that, there’s still a long way to go."
I was just thinking that, thehorsesmouth.I’m still pondering whether to put Punch in a pre-Chelters L15.
Zip
9/2 isn’t bad, but I took 12 and 8 on the machine when the brown stuff started hitting the fan.
9/2 isn’t bad, but I took 12 and 8 on the machine when the brown stuff started hitting the fan.
The 12"s lasted all of 2mins and 35 secs,you were quick Euro
I know, even managed to get me some 12.5
Bet ID: 10267187173
Event: RSA Chs
Bet placed at: 05-Mar-10 14:09
Market
type Selection Bid
type Bet
taken Odds
req. Stake
(£) Liability
(£) Odds
matched
O Punchestowns Back 05-Mar-10
14:09 12 1.99 12.5
O Punchestowns Back 05-Mar-10
14:09 12 3.01 12I heard back in October that Henderson does not want to run Punchestown in RSA. He feels RSA is the toughest race of the festival and takes loads out of horse. I wouldn’t be surprised if he did not run as NH is very bullish about his chances in next years Gold Cup and that he is his best chance of a gold cup winner, ever.
Don’t think he has any choice with Long Run
I know, even managed to get me some 12.5
Bet ID: 10267187173
Event: RSA Chs
Bet placed at: 05-Mar-10 14:09
Market
type Selection Bid
type Bet
taken Odds
req. Stake
(£) Liability
(£) Odds
matched
O Punchestowns Back 05-Mar-10
14:09 12 1.99 12.5
O Punchestowns Back 05-Mar-10
14:09 12 3.01 12Snap lol
Bet ID: 10266643675
Event: RSA Chs
Bet placed at: 05-Mar-10 13:16Market
type Selection Bid
type Bet
taken Odds
req. Stake
(£) Liability
(£) Odds
matched
O Punchestowns Back 05-Mar-10
14:06 12 4.00 12Gives me a bit more cover when I go in again on Long Run. Only slight concern now is the irish horses, Weird Al may well put in a clear round but it will probably be twenty lengths behind the winner
I’m strongly considering going in on Punchy today but all must beware of the Irish Weapon!!
Great and sexy minds…
I too think Punchy is the one. Weapons is my E/W saver too – I think 10/1 or bigger is very good value about a horse that has already won over the course and has the makings of a better chaser. He WILL stay as long as ground isn’t a bog.
Zip
The strength of this race has improved all season and I actually think more top class animals will emerge from this contest than the Arkle, which has thinned out the more this season has progressed, in my opinion.
I’ve been a huge fan of Punchestowns since his chasing debut, but I’m less confident after his well publicised setback.
Long Run has always been my idea of his main danger, but Mr Waley-Cohen is a huge worry and my ew fancy, Pandorama, looks set to miss the race.
Where does that leave me?
I have no qualms about Long Run’s jumping. None whatsoever. Many will highlight his Boxing Day blunders at Kempton, but I think he’s a fine athlete and would be very surprised if he hit the deck.
Kempton, along with Sandown, is a big test for any novice chaser. The fences are tough and they come at you very quickly. You need to negotiate them at speed and that’s the biggest challenge for any chaser – speed kills, as they say.
The general consensus after his impressive display was "He’ll learn from that". Not something I necessarily agree with. I like to see a novice treat their fences with respect after a mistake. Take Punchestowns at Sandown as an example. After his sole mistake, he was very careful at the next two obstacles – giving them plenty of air – before regaining his confidence (well done, Barry Geraghty) and jumping fluently.
I was pleased to see Long Run jump so well at Warwick next time out. Again, not an easy test for a novice. Regardless of what many may believe, I don’t think Cheltenham is the greatest test of a horses jumping ability. It does place the emphasis on stamina – another question mark hanging over Nicky Henderson’s horse – but Long Run has won over two miles-five on testing ground in his native country and the trip does not bother me, either.
Sam Waley-Cohen is a fine horseman (22% SR over fences during the last five seasons, according to RP online), but you have to think that in such a competitive race he could be the difference between winning and losing.
However, he has a three-from-three record aboard Long Run and you can’t argue with that.
Long Run is arguably the most prodigious talent to emerge from France in some time. His form figures are more impressive than the likes of Big Buck’s, Master Minded and even Kauto Star and his prominence in both novice antepost markets is a huge compliment to his ability.
He would be a certainty if a more experienced professional was in the saddle, I believe. A lot will depend on the wellbeing of Punchestowns, but I can’t fancy that horse after a setback this close to The Festival and Weapon’s Amnesty is my ew bet in the race now that Pandorama misses out.
I dont watch as much racing as I used to, but is Long Run definitely running in this race? Its really impressed me the two times I have seen it run.
I was just thinking that, thehorsesmouth.
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