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.
- Posts
<b>Racing post ratings </b>
Can someone tell me how they come with these ratings? are they a book makers best friend? the Big green one uses them. Example:
<b>LANAI</b> runs tomorrow <b>RR say:</b> 81 <b>OR:</b> 67 ???
The RP ratings are not on the same scale as the official ratings.
If
LANAI
was running off a
RPR
of
81
, looking at the conversion chart, this would equate to an official rating of
73
, making her
6lb
well in, if her official rating was
67
.
I put together the
RPR
conversion chart analysing
33,500
races in
SPSS
RPR conversion chart:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shar … 77a59624ac
RPR class chart:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shar … 6c67739e5a
Mike.
Incidentally Blues Brother I notice your own rating of Sire de Grugy seems a bit lower than everyone else’s. That does mean he’s not a good thing in his race today?
Incidentally Blues Brother I notice your own rating of Sire de Grugy seems a bit lower than everyone else’s. That does mean he’s not a good thing in his race today?
I shouldn’t say this, the reason why my ratings are different to everybody else, is simply because I have the ability to compile going allowances, and I work to a base rate of
130
over the jumps.
The base rate of
130
was mathematically worked out, and with the right conditions, a top class chase horse should be able to run to a maximum rating of
160
.
Weight adjusted Figures:
SIRE DE GRUGY
152
UXIZANDRE
139
UPSILON BLEU
137
KARINGA DANCER
137
MR MOLE
121
Mike.
Mike
Just out of interest, what were your highest ratings for Frankel (OR 140) and Sprinter Sacre (OR 188)?
Mike
Incidentally Blues Brother I notice your own rating of Sire de Grugy seems a bit lower than everyone else’s. That does mean he’s not a good thing in his race today?
If Sire De Grugy doesn’t win today, he shouldn’t be going to Cheltenham. The trainer has said just about the same thing coming into today’s race.
With him now 11/10, the price is actually scarily good looking and could look huge when we look back on the race. Next best in the betting, Mr Mole, has plenty to find and Uxizandre surely needs further and also comes in on the back of a stinker.
We know SDG has been injured but they won’t be running him unless he’s somewhere near fit.
I’ll wade in and if the horse doesn’t do the business I hope the trainer at least stands by his pre-race assessment and admits disappointment, rather than sporting a face like a lemon tester before coming down to don the rose-tinted goggles and wax on about all the positives that can be taken from it.
Blues Brother has a serious amount of data there, impressive work and it must be a way of life, rather than a job or hobby. Hopefully Sire De Grugy is one that even Ray Charles could have picked
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Racing post ratings
Can someone tell me how they come with these ratings? are they a book makers best friend? the Big green one uses them. Example:
LANAI
runs tomorrow
RR say:
81
OR:
67 ???
I think you will find they have made a mistake with the race, its a misprint. RPR ratings are on the same scale as the Official scale.
If you look at the 4.10 at Southwell tomorrow you can see clearly how they rate a race correctly.
In that race River Of Dreams has a RPR weight adjusted rating of 75. How did they get that figure? Straightforward to see really.
If you bring the individual horse form window up and look at the top right hand side there is a column headed BEST RPR, River of Dreams master RPR AW figure there shows as 74.
To bring that figure to the weight carried today you need to check what the Weight For Age weight is for a 3yo over 7f in the first half of February, that weight is 8-11. River Of Dreams is set to carry 8-10, so the horse is capable of being rated 75 as it carries 1lb less than weight For Age.
With an older horse its the same process, Street Force has a master RPR of 60 on the AW, the Weight For Age scale shows a mature horse over 7f in February should carry 10.0, as the horse only carries 9-13 its given a weight adjustment of +1lb, which is a final figure of 61.
That is how RPR ratings for today’s race are calculated when there isn’t a misprint.
Lania has an AW master rating of just 43 so its clear that the 81 is a misprint as she only carries the 6lb less than Weight For Age for a 3yo over 5f in February, which is 9-0, so there would be +6lb weight adjustment required, certainly not an addition of 38lbs. Mary Ann Bugg is also +6lb, the RPR master rating is 47 but shows as 59 when weight corrected. Soft Love has a master rating of 62 but is showing as 79 when weight corrected. The whole race is a bit of a cock-up.
Mike
Just out of interest, what were your highest ratings for Frankel (OR 140) and Sprinter Sacre (OR 188)?
MikeI use a base rate of
100
on the flat, and with the right conditions, a top class flat horse should be able to run to a maximum rating of
130
.
Frankel:
my top 2 ratings were a
128
and
120
.
He is still my highest ever rated horse on the flat.Sprinter Sacre:
My top 2 ratings are
155
and
154
.
I didn’t start compiling speed figures for the jumps until June 2013, and looking back through his form, his official rating of188
is pure fantasy
Yes he is a very good horse, the one thing I do not do is "wax lyrical" when compiling speed figures and make them upThe BHA rating of 188 for Sprinter Sacre is based from other horses on the BHA scale though BB, so in that respect it can’t be pure fantasy.
Your National Hunt ratings seem to be about 25lb less than official ratings from what I can gather as a whole. Sorry if i’ve not read it correctly, but as your scale is lower then all horses will have lower figures wouldn’t they?
Sprinter Sacre’s BHA rating is 188 and the RPR is 190.
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