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This a lottery but winning ticket may be
CONVEY 12/1
Won AW maiden at Kempton reason i bring this up is that horses who win on that track for some reason when back on turf they run better here they do no idea why that is.Ran at York in big field handicap was 2nd should of won that travel really well in race so though got beat in that we know he acts in a big field race be perfect for him.
Good luck Darren with Convey
I’ve not had a proper look at this yet, but the first to jump out was Belgian Bill. No money down yet though, but I’ll definitely be back with a bet no doubt in the next week
I think the consensus is that Convey should have won at York but he’s been put back up to a mark of 106 for that effort and he’s not the most consistent of sorts. I’d be slightly more interested in another of Sir Michael’s likely runners in Grand Inquisitor who’s been eased to a mark of 95 for not disgracing himself in the Victoria Cup. I think a mile is more his trip and looks like finding a fast surface for the first time since winning a Sandown Handicap in June last year. An improving 4 year old who looks like going off shorter than the 20/1 being offered up at the moment.
I have done Carry On Deryck.
I tend to avoid Godolphin but they are having a decent season so far with these older horses.
Carry On Deryck ran in the Britannia last year and was a highly creditable 4th of 28. He was then purchased by Godolphin.
It was a long while before we saw the Gelding again but in Meydan he defeated hot favourite Udododontu and gave indications that he might be up to group class in time. He’s rated 106 now and that guarantees him a spot in the Royal Hunt Cup should they choose to send him there.
Udododontu flopped in the Lincoln, looking all at sea on the soft ground after being well backed. However the other Godolphin horse Secret Brief landed that race and Flash Fire landed the Victoria Cup, with those two having finished 3rd and 4th to Carry On Deryck at Meydan.
A wide open race but at 16/1 I felt Carry On Deryck had potential improvement and has form at the track and trip.
Carry On Deryck 16/1Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
have backed Donncha each way,just hoping to get run,dont back many AP,my record is not great even at getting them to the post
CAN’T CHANGE IT 20/1 frank on board just needs a few to drop out to get in …Remember where you heard it first!! LOL
I backed Donncha for the Lincoln NW !!
Had a good bet on Donncha last time out @14-1. Missed the break, trouble in running two or three times. It would of been very close to winning IMO. Now 8 pounds better off with Convey including Marquand’s claim. Proven form on Soft
Been backing it AP since the book opened E/W 25-1 , 20-1, 16-1 and probably have a top up after the draw is made.
It looks a great bet on paper just a tad worried about the other 30 horses
Big field handicaps are no more of a lottery than other races if you know what you’re doing
Emell 40/1 e/w
Ran a good race last time coming back to form with a solid second, staying on over 7f so this step up in trip to 8f will suit. The horse has performed very well in big field handicaps in the past, acts on soft, has a decent jockey in Pat Dobbs. He’s only rated 101 which is 6lbs lower than his previous highest. He’s in stall 16 so jockey can decide which group to go with. The horse loves to race and is rarely out of the picture.
All things point to a very big run and 40/1 is a ridiculous price
Considering Emell myself Ben, and I may throw him into the mix, along with Belgian Bill & Spark Plug who I’ll definitely be betting.
GL
I have bet three in this…
SECRET BRIEF Lincoln winner only been put up four pound for that which looks reasonable and looks like he has been kept for this and will like the ground.
HASANOUR which stayed on well in a Naas listed race last time and has been running without success over ten furlongs in Meydan.
EARTH DRUMMER which ran fifth in the Victoria Cup last time over seven and was finishing best and at 33/1 with PP I had to back it!!Good Luck folks oh and by the way it looks like a low draw might be favourable.
I feel the ground has gone against Carry On Deryck, who ran so well at the meeting last year but that was on very fast ground. He’s still far from exposed but life looks tougher on this vastly contrasting ground.
I like the bottom weight as a back up.
Librisa Breeze looks to have been prepared for this race and he’s just managed to creep in. I was impressed by the way he picked up to win his race at Wolverhampton last time. He sat last most of the way that day before hanging a bit as the jockey pulled him out for his effort. He hung back the other way slightly but came away pretty readily.
He’s only had seven starts in his life and last time was his first run for Dean Ivory. He may still be learning on the evidence of his last run and is far from fully exposed at the trip. He has won 3 times and although this is his toughest assignment by some way, he gets weight and may be fairly well handicapped today.
Looking at Librisa Breeze, I think he may well cope with this ground and the higher weights may find it tougher. I fully expect a good run and I could see him at a single figure price, so I’ll take 12/1 and the best odds guaranteed offer here.
Paddy Power are going 1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4,5,6 Places here so do yourselves a favour if you can.
William Hill are one of the ones only offering 1,2,3,4 places. Make your own mind up where the better terms are. No doubt some twisted defence of William Hill will follow from the professional disagree merchants.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just checked the Specials on racebets…they’ll go 28/1 Godolphin own the winner of this. Worth a punt
Surely a mistake but they’ll have taken my 20€
Convey and Mr Owen the two for me here. Mr Owen has been running well in Group races, and finished only a length behind yesterday’s Queen Anne favourite Ervedya last time out.
Nightmare, but the kind of race I love. I’ve had a bet on 2, MITCHUM SWAGGER
at 16/1 and INSTANT ATTRACTION at 22/1.Good luck to everyone, we’ll need it
I wouldn’t exactly call it a hard luck story, but Mitchum Swagger still had
27 horses in front of him with 2 to go. He had to check and weave his way
through and finished like a train into 3rd. Nonetheless I’m happy with the
e/w on him, he could easily have found himself with nowhere to go, and in
any case the winner won it well.
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