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Rolling On

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  • #1278
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2150

    Hi again….. iow and a couple of people that have PM’ed me, want a further explanation of the "Rolling Double" method. The older members on here will know that I’ve got a bit of a thing about protecting your betting bank. To do this and make some decent money whilst doing it, you have to push the boundaries out a bit further by the use of staking plans, but the need to be sensible and protective must always be paramount. With this in mind, I like to use "rolling doubles" to increase my winnings but the stakes will never be any more than you would spend using level stakes, so if you have 30 bets a month, the amount that you will risk losing will NEVER be more than 30pts, thats a pretty safe betting plan. There is a risk involved and if you don’t want to take risks, then stick with levels, but at least follow this on paper, it might surprise you……<br>Rolling doubles are nothing more than rolling any winnings and stake from one bet and let it ride on the second selection. For example…… L… L… L… 5/4… 2/1…<br>this set of results would put you .25pt up using levels but with RD you will have risked the same 5pts but would have rolled on the winning plus stake from the 5/4 winner onto the 2/1 winner returning you 6.75pts, you would also have 3pts from the 2/1 winner, ready to ride onto your next bet. So this series of bets would actually leave you with a total of 6.75pts (from the first double) + 3pts (from the 1pt win on the 2/1) =  9.75pts. The series of bets has only cost you 5pts, the same as level stakes, so your profit is 4.75pts…. your already 4.5pts better off than levels over only 5 bets….. the risk you take is quite simple but the returns far outweigh the risk IMHO. You are risking the results falling in groups, W… L…W… L… W… L… a 50% strike rate and you end up losing 6pts, but how often do you get results like that. I usually find they fall about L… W… W… L… L… W…   just one double but your now well in the clear. Yes, a risk, but far better than chasing your losses…….. I hope this is understandable, after all, it is Saturday night and I should be watching footy on the telly…….<br>:biggrin:

    MrE

    #50178
    iow
    Member
    • Total Posts 5

    Very much appreciated Mr E. I had intended using Robots staking plan to higher than his five pound stakes. I have now changed my mind . I will look seriously at this staking plan and see how it affects the results so far . Thanks for taking the trouble of putting this up .

    #50179
    GH
    Participant
    • Total Posts 11

    Hi Mr E,

    From your experience, what is the minimum strike rate to make Rolling Doubles a worthwhile staking method.

    #50180
    mallyb
    Member
    • Total Posts 3

    Mr E,

    Thanks for posting this variation on staking.<br>As you’ve said…obviously sequencing plays an important part for this to work in one’s favour.

    Cheers<br>mallyb

    #50184
    Urban Dave
    Member
    • Total Posts 629

    I never thought I’d say this but, take note ladies and gentlemen, listen to MrE – he knows what he’s talking about.

    Rolling doubles can work wonders on a break even system and above. You don’t need a huge strike rate, just so long as you get a few winners back to back. On the other hand if you do have a high strike rate system (but with low prices) then rolling doubles can make a huge difference to your return for no more initial outlay than level stakes.

    Once you get your head around losing on the single string of bets which you would previously have collected on you’ll be well away – especially once you’ve counted your winnings at the end of the month.

    Now, if I could only get the old geezer to talk as much sense the rest of the time … :biggrin:

    #50186
    stephen12000
    Member
    • Total Posts 13

    Mr E’s plan seems a great method, but isn’t his maths  a little bit out? Surely the profit in that sequence is 3.75pts, not 4.75pts, and where does the 3pts stake come from? After the 2/1 winner isn’t the double then completed and the following stake be another 1pt bet?

    Is Mr E’s sums a bit out, or is it my post-lager frenzy brain fade?

    Thanks!<br>Steve

    #50189
    Urban Dave
    Member
    • Total Posts 629

    Sorry Steve but it also looks as though MrE can count – will wonders never cease?!

    1pt @ 5/4 = 1.25 (plus returned stake of 1pt) = 2.25pts return

    2.25pt is then rolled over to the 2/1 shot

    2.25 @ 2/1 = 4.5 (plus returned stake of 2.25pts) = 6.75 pts total return

    In the meantime you will have continued placing your 1pt win bet (as you would with level stakes) on the 2/1 shot as well. That would give you a 3pt stake to roll over to whatever the next bet in the sequence will be – and your new 1pt bet on that next horse too.

    If a sequence of winners is maintained you will, in effect, have two different bets riding on the same horse – your roll over from the previous win and a fresh 1pt bet.

    Probably as clear as mud but stick with it, because once it clicks you’ll love this staking method. :)

    #50191
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2150

    Hi guys, only just got back, but Urby’s got it cock on. You actually have 1pt win on EVERY horse irrespective of any winning from previous bet. Each and every GG will have the same 1pt win as you would at levels, the only difference here is that anything to come from one winner is also "rolled" forward and placed on one more bet to complete a double. Its not easy to explain but its a doddle as soon as it sinks in….. but beware, its as Mallyb states, you will need the sequences to fall together. This aint as tough as it sounds cos it just doesn’t happen that way, sometimes yes, but mostly the results will be staggered and thats what your gonna capitalise on….. what you must realise is that this is one of the best I’ve used for short priced selections and would enhance your profits considerably providing that your basic selection method is sound. This method, or any other method cannot make a crap system into a good one but will most certainly improve the profits on some of the steadier systems……

    MrE

    #50194
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2150

    Graham…. you want to know what strike rate would be best to make this work, thats difficult to answer because it depends on price range. Providing the price was right, I would use this on as little as a 40% strike rate, 50% would be admirable but I know of few systems that can keep that up at decent prices so 40% is the target I aim at. Now we get down to the nitty gritty, assume you get 4 winners at 6/4 from 10 bets, at level stakes you break even but if the results fall sequentially, you could end up with a string that looks like.. LLWWWLLWLL… that would give you a 2.5pt profit with RD. The gamble you are taking is that you get the winners in groups and that aint so much of a gamble as you might think, it aint very often that I see my results falling as… WLWLWLWLWL…. it just doesn’t happen like that…. it could possibly, but it wouldn’t PROBABLY…. and thats what we are playing, the PROBABILITY….. I don’t want these posts to get too long because they become boring, but look at this and think about it, I’ve been playing this sort of stuff on the GG’s, the dogs and Roulette, for a few years now, it DOES work. I’ll continue for another post and you can think about it some more…..<br>:biggrin:

    MrE

    #50197
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2150

    I’m getting knackered now and I aint even started looking at the GG’s for tomorrow yet, so I’ll make this a bit quick…… for you guys that are concerned about how the winners fall and that you might lose out, stick with level stakes cos I would not want anybody to lose out by this, but do yourself a favour and make a note of what the RD would do for you….. what I want to say is that there is no easy way of winning at horse racing, its all down to the risks that your willing to take. A good friend of mine who was a pro gambler always said that to make a go of it, there would be times when you would need to take that step further, you would need to "go to the edge". I’m not advocating anything that drastic but I am adamant that you must protect your bank at all costs, don’t take to many risks and what better way than this at no more cost than levels. Always remember, you can vary this to suit yourself, if your concerned about the results falling as WLWLWLWL… you could always cover that by having your bets at half a point and putting two bets on horse A, when it wins you can put the returns on both B AND C, that way you’ll still have a double up even if the 2nd horse loses, that way a WLWLW wouldn’t bother you one jot. The bet would be weak of course because you’ve halved your bet but the profit/loss line would depend on your prices. You could also go for broke with the biggie, why not "roll on" for a treble, three in a row at evens pays out 7/1, impossible I hear you say, you maybe right, but Robotica has had eight (8) trebles up since he started posting, so perhaps not so impossible as first thought…… study it my friends, and whether you decide to use it or not, print it out and keep it handy for future reference…….<br>I really have gotta bugger off now and look at tomorrows card…. bleeding ‘ell, its midnight…..<br>:biggrin: :biggrin:

    MrE

    #50199
    stephen12000
    Member
    • Total Posts 13

    Thanks for the clarifications, bare with me – is this correct then?

    Each and every bet has 1pt staked on it, set aside for it if you like, so a series of 10 bets will always cost only 10pts max.

    So suppose the first bet wins at 2/1.

    The second bet will then comprise of your  returned stake from bet 1 plus winnings (3pts total) which are then staked on the second bet, PLUS another 1pt which would have been staked anyway, whether bet 1 won or lost, making the entire stake for bet 2 4pts. Is this correct, or do I need to go get the hat with the big D on the front?

    Thanks!<br>Steve

    #50200
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2150

    You’ve got it Steve….. I told you it was easy, hard to explain, but when the penny drops….. Pow!!!!!!…… and remember, you only carry forward onto horse number three, the amount you win from the 1pt bet on horse number two…. if horse 2 loses, its back to 1pt on horse 3….. hahaha…. s’fun this ennit…. I’ll show everybody how it works on the Robots thread, that’ll help iron out any discrepancies….<br>:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:

    MrE

    (Edited by MrE at 1:03 pm on Sep. 1, 2003)

    #50201
    stephen12000
    Member
    • Total Posts 13

    Brilliant Mr E, what a cracking plan for getting the most out of short priced selections.

    Many thanks!<br>Steve

    #50202
    padman
    Member
    • Total Posts 448

    Mr E,

    Just a quick question as I am trying this at the mo. What do you roll over onto the 3rd horse after 2 winners. Is it just the winnings from your 1pt stake on the 2nd horse or the winnings and stake as well.

    Hope this makes sense

    Regards,

    <br>Paul

    #50203
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2150

    Oh dear Pad, what a question to ask on a Friday night, too much of the amber nectar makes one ready for the old beddy byes, but I’ll answer your question….. you stake on selection 3, ALL that you have returned from No2, that is winnings AND the 1pt stake, if No3 wins, this would complete a proper double…. i.e…. a 2/1 and a 1/1 would return you 6pts, your outlay was 1pt so the profit is 5pts… exactly as if it were a straight double……<br>G’night Pad, anymore will have to wait until morning…. bugger me, it IS morning…… night night……<br>:biggrin:

    MrE

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