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I have this week-end recieved my copy of The Racing & Football Outlook JUMPS Guide 2009/10 and will try to drip feed some interesting stats from which you may be able to make up your own system.
Wednesday brings the next Jumps meeting at [b:b3rzz4yy]Haydock[/color:b3rzz4yy][/b:b3rzz4yy].
D McCain has the hghest percentage wins to runs of 8 from 29, being 28% and at a level stake £1 shows a profit of +68.75
PJ Hobbs 22% +3.28 & MC Pipe 21% +49.98, N Twiston-Davies 16% +33.32
N Henderson -34[/color:b3rzz4yy]
& P Nicholls -20.50[/color:b3rzz4yy]Timmy Murphy has 30% SR for MC Pipe showing +12.96 level stakes profit
Jason Maguire 20% +28.83 when riding for D McCain
Noel Fehily 15% +25.38 when riding for Jonjo O’NeillBilly's Outback Shack
Thursday will bring 2 NH meetings at
Stratford
PF Nicholls has the highest win percentage 26% but shows a level stake loss of 23.87
Mrs AM Thorpe has a 25% strike rateMrs K Waldron has a level stake profit +41.50
Avoid JonJo O’Neill -23, DE PIPE -26 & AW Carroll-28
AP McCoy has a win ratio 21% but a level stake loss -30.56
TJ Doyle wins only 13% of his races but has a level stake profit +49.50Newcastle
Trainer NG Richards has a 24% strike rate and level stake profit +28.69
JM Jefferson shows 22% strike rate but zero profit at level stakes
DW Whillans with 15% strike rate shows a huge level stake profit+118.50Avoid Ferdy Murphy -90 & Miss Lucinda Russell -67
Mrs R Dobbin (jockey) enjoys a 32% strike rate and a level stakes profit +20.38 but Peter Buchan wins only 7% but has level stakes profit +25.13
Avoid G Lee -49.30
Billy's Outback Shack
Friday will bring two NH meetings: –
UTTOXETER
where an average 35% of favourites pass the winning post first but Hurdle show 38%
The trainer to watch for is VRA DARTNALL with 35% strike rate & level stake profit +17 the biggest loser is Jonjo O’Neill -114
AP McCoy & Noel Fehily both have a 19% strike rate whereas AP shows a loss of -75 Noel Fehily shows a plus of+57 at level stakes
WETHERBY
shows 37% strike rate for favourites although NH Flat just tops 40% and shows a level stake profit +6
Although GA SWINBANK has the best strike rate at 29% it looks as if GM MOORE has the largest level stake profit at +53
AP McCoy has a 29% strike rate but shows a level stake loss of -16 whereas DOMINIC ELSWORTH has 23% strike rate and =50 level stake profit
Billy's Outback Shack
Saturday takes us to
ASCOT
Favourites win 35% of Ascot races but almost 40% over hurdles
Nicky Henderson has by far the best strike rate of 31% and makes a descent level stake profit +21 but David Pipe has a lower strike rate of 22% but records the best level stake profit +52
PF NICHOLLS -28 & PJ HOBBS -25
Of the jockey’s Barry Geraghty has a huge 39% strike rate and a healthy level stake profit +16 but Tom Scudamore shows them all a clean pair of heels with +35
Billy's Outback Shack
CARLISLE
, overall SR for Fav’s. is 39% but a fantastic 53% of fav’s win the Bumpers although most profit is made by Chase Fav’s + 19.73
Howard-Johnson & JonJo O’Neill have 26% SR but an impressive level stake profit by howard-Johnson is +40 and a Miss SE Forster is only just behind with +39.50
Ferdy Murphy is one to swerve here with a minus -85 at LS
Dennis O’Reagan & AP McCoy share top billing with 29% SR although Dennis O’Reagan is tops at LS +42 and G Lee is a massive -90
HUNTINGDON
Almost 41% of Favourites win here, 42% over hurdles and 51% of Bumper fav’s win
Nicky Henderson tops the trainers strike rate at 35% and makes + 17 at LS
DE Cantillon is tops of the level stakes league +26 whilst GL Moore is bottom – 40AP McCoy is again top of the percentages with 26& and a healthy +18 level stakes
Noel Fehily comes out best at LS +30
Jamie Moore shows a shocking LS loss -79Billy's Outback Shack
Monday’s cards are: –
KEMPTON
where favourites average just under 37% SR but Bumpers again are "top of the pops" with a SR of 46%
Miss Suzy Smith has a 29% SR & Nicky Henderson 27%
Andrew Turnell tops the SR list with +31 profit while Henderson manages +19
The horror bags to avoid here are JonJo O’Neill -39, PJ Hobbs -33 & David Pipe -30Ruby Walsh tops the SR chart with 27% but makes a LS loss, Mick Fitz was THE man but sadly no longer and so Dominic Elseworth has a topping LS profit +24
Avoid AP McCoy -30 and Timmy Murphy also -30PLUMPTON
is where Chase Favourites rule the roost with a 43% Strike Rate and even manage a small LS profit
Nicky Henderson shows them all a clean set of heels with a whopping 44% strike rate but Venetia Williams is worth a look with 31% SR but the level stakes profit king is CL TIZZARD +21
Avoid Willie Mullins here at all cost his LS loss is -47Micky Fitz as top jock but it is no surprise to find AP McCoy with a topping 25% Strike Rate and a nice +21 LS profit however the top honours again go to Noel Fehily +29
Avoid Leighton Aspell -52 in the level stakes list and Richard Johnson -39Billy's Outback Shack
Tuesday NH racing is at
EXETER
where the Favourite averages are 37% for both Chases and Hurdles and 29% for the Bumpers but non of them make a level stake profit.
Pay Attention because this stat is fantastic: –
Miss EC Lavelle has a chart topping 31% strike rate with a fantastic level stake profit of +68. She is followed in the percentages by PF Nicholls with 30% strike rate couple with a level stake loss -8
Miss Lavelle is simply the best!
For some of the jockey’s this place is a nightmare i.e Joe Tizzard -61, Andrew Thornton -49, Tom Scudamore -41
Barry Fenton was king here but now Christian Williams has the level stakes crown with +21 whilst the evergreen Ruby Walsh tops the percentages with 38 but yet again shows a level stake loss.
Billy's Outback Shack
Wednsday takes NH racing to the Welsh borders at
CHEPSTOW
Bumper favs make their mark here with 45% strike rate, Chase 35% and Hurdles 34% but only yhe Bumpers make a small LS profit.
PF Nicholls wears the percentage mantle with 25% SR but then has a -20 loss which is not as bad as N Twiston-Davies -65 or JonJo O’Neill -56
Carl Llewellyn is the main man for LS profit here with +45Ruby Walsh tops the percentage SR list with 32% and =6 LS profit. but Richard Johnson has a huge +52 Level Stakes profit.
Tom Scudamore and Joe Tizzard are well worth avaoiding both with losses in the -50’sWARWICK
is a good favourites track all showing 40%+ Strike rates and all with a little profit.
Nicky Henderson enjoys this place a lot with 38% Strike Rate and even manages +11 in the level stakes list but that is behind Jim Old +38 and Alan King +34Top of the Jock’s is Robert Thornton with 25% Strike Rate and LS profit +27 and is only beaton by Jason Maguire +30
Avoid Tom Scudamore who must hate this place, his LS loss -43 and then AP McCoy shows a loss -30 and Richard Johnson -27
Billy's Outback Shack
With HAYDOCK already covered it only remains to check out
TOWCESTER
for Thursday
Favourites cannot be very popular here as they all make a loss but non greater than Hurdles -58
Alan King’s Strike Rate with 27% and shows a healthy level stake profit +36 but JonJo O’Neill has a LS profit +60 whilst HD Daley is worth a mention with +49
All pale before Venetia Williams with a massive +91
Liam Treadwell leads the way with Level Stake Profit +92, Mark Bradburne +79 & Wayne Hutchinson +73
AP McCoy tops the percentages with 30% but only makes +10 in the level stakes table
Billy's Outback Shack
Friday it is off to FONTWELL & HEXHAM
FONTWELL
Chase favourites have shown level stake profits of +26 and Bumpers +7 overall 38% of Favs win here.
PF Nicholls is the main trainer with 30% strike rate but shows a heavy LS loss -22
NJ Gifford has the best LS profit +21
AP McCoy has a 24% strike rate but a LS loss -25
SP Jones is +22 for Level Stakes otherwise nothing to get too excited about.
HEXHAM
Is not really the place for favourite backers.
JJ Quinn has the best SR at 24%
But a certain WS Coltherd is + 72 for Level StakesDenis O’Reagan enjoys a 27% SR and +16 at LS
Michael McAlister has a whopping +101 at level stakes.
Saturday it is Wincanton, Sandown & Kelso
KELSO
is another graveyard for favourite backers.
P Bowen has a 38% strike rate but a small LS loss.
Ferdy Murphy has the best level stake profit at +27
Howard-Johnson is -51 in the LS leagueDominic Elsworth has a 30% strike rate and a nice level stake profit +24 but TJ Dreaper tops the lot with +64
Give Denis O’Reagan a miss his record show -57
SANDOWN
all favourites show a small profit and 41% strike rate.
PF Nicholls tops the trainers chart with 32% strike rate and +17 profit at Level Stakes
A King is best avoided showing -38 at level stakesA certain Mr J Snowden has a 50% SR & +22 level stakes
However AP McCoy has a 28% SR and +17 at level stakes
WINCANTON
is again another place where favourites can be best avoided, they win 35% of races but show -41 loss at level stakes.
PF Nicholls does very well with a 30% strike rate and much about the best LS profit +16
Some trainers show some big losses at LS incl. DE Pipe -60, RH Alner -39, Venetia Williams -29 and CL Tizzard -46
Two Jockey’s to note: –
Ruby Walsh with a heavy SR +35%But Noel Fehily shows a massive LS profit +119
Billy's Outback Shack
Sunday goes to
Ffos Las
where no 5 year stats are available.
HEREFORD
34% Strike rate for Favourites but level stakes show a nasty loss -37
NJ Henderson likes this place and has 35% strike rate and a LS profit to boot +10
A King is the best at level stakes +20
AP McCoy tops the charts again with 24% strike rate but an awful level stakes loss -24
Richard Johnson has a healthy SR of 21% and comes out best at level stakes +16
MARKET RASEN
runs a par for the course 36% SR for favs showing a nasty -39 loss if all favs. were backed
NA Twiston-Davies is top of the trainers with 34% strike rate and a nice +39 at level stakes which is just topped by JJ Quinn with +43
Noel Fehily comes out top here with 23% SR and a very nice +43 at level stakes
Billy's Outback Shack
You are welcome chaps and once all tracks are complete there will be a report on the main trainers.
I picked up the FLAT version only in September, more out of interest than anything and in prep. for the Jumps, it proved a little money spinner and soon paid for itself.
I also have the Racing Post Guide to the Jumps 2009 – 2010 which has nice glossy paper but does not look as good as the RFO version.
Billy's Outback Shack
Monday NH racing is from Carlisle and Southwell.
Carlisle has already been covered
Southwell
looks to be a favourites paradise where 43% of them win and
72% favs. win Bumpers
at level stakes for ALL favourites shows +21 profit.
Trainers to watch for are GA SWINBANK 50% strike rate and C J MANN 36% SR
HEATHER DALTON grosse a LS profit +22 whilst A KING in just short at +19
Christian Williams is top strike rate jockey with 29% but look out for PJ Brennan & Sam Thomas with +29 at level stakes
Billy's Outback Shack
Tuesday sees racing at Lingfield, Sedgefield & Exeter (already covered)
Lingfield
Favourites do well here but do not make level stakes profit, overall strike rate averages 40%
Alan King is the top strike rate trainer with 30% and there are only three that make L/S profit
GL Moore +36
A King +12
JonJo O’Neill +22Robert Thornton’s SR is a huge 42% with +15 LS profit but look out for Noel Fehily +19
Sedgefield
is another of those places where Favourites have a reasonable strike rate but show level stakes loss -26
GA Swinbank has 24& SR but the only trainer to show a level stake profit is M Todhunter +15
TJ O’Brien rides 31% of winners followed by AP McCoy with 26% but the profits lay with Tjade Collier +29 and Michael McAlister +21 at level stakes
Billy's Outback Shack
Wednesday Warwick has been covered and only Bangor is left to look at the stats
Bangor
Overasll the favs have 37%SR but Bumpers have 52% and a LS profit +13
Tim Vaughan 39% and JJ Quinn 38% strike rates both post a healthy LS profit along with J Mackie all +20 or more
TJ O’Brien has the best SR at 25% but look out for Mark Bradburne +57 at level stakes
Billy's Outback Shack
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