RFO Jumps Guide 2009/10

[billion]

I have this week-end recieved my copy of The Racing & Football Outlook JUMPS Guide 2009/10 and will try to drip feed some interesting stats from which you may be able to make up your own system.

Wednesday brings the next Jumps meeting at [b:b3rzz4yy]Haydock[/color:b3rzz4yy][/b:b3rzz4yy].

D McCain has the hghest percentage wins to runs of 8 from 29, being 28% and at a level stake £1 shows a profit of +68.75

PJ Hobbs 22% +3.28 & MC Pipe 21% +49.98, N Twiston-Davies 16% +33.32

N Henderson -34[/color:b3rzz4yy]
& P Nicholls -20.50[/color:b3rzz4yy]

Timmy Murphy has 30% SR for MC Pipe showing +12.96 level stakes profit

Jason Maguire 20% +28.83 when riding for D McCain
Noel Fehily 15% +25.38 when riding for Jonjo O’Neill

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Thursday will bring 2 NH meetings at

Stratford

PF Nicholls has the highest win percentage 26% but shows a level stake loss of 23.87
Mrs AM Thorpe has a 25% strike rate

Mrs K Waldron has a level stake profit +41.50

Avoid JonJo O’Neill -23, DE PIPE -26 & AW Carroll-28

AP McCoy has a win ratio 21% but a level stake loss -30.56
TJ Doyle wins only 13% of his races but has a level stake profit +49.50

Newcastle

Trainer NG Richards has a 24% strike rate and level stake profit +28.69
JM Jefferson shows 22% strike rate but zero profit at level stakes
DW Whillans with 15% strike rate shows a huge level stake profit+118.50

Avoid Ferdy Murphy -90 & Miss Lucinda Russell -67

Mrs R Dobbin (jockey) enjoys a 32% strike rate and a level stakes profit +20.38 but Peter Buchan wins only 7% but has level stakes profit +25.13

Avoid G Lee -49.30

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Friday will bring two NH meetings: –

UTTOXETER

where an average 35% of favourites pass the winning post first but Hurdle show 38%

The trainer to watch for is VRA DARTNALL with 35% strike rate & level stake profit +17 the biggest loser is Jonjo O’Neill -114

AP McCoy & Noel Fehily both have a 19% strike rate whereas AP shows a loss of -75 Noel Fehily shows a plus of+57 at level stakes

WETHERBY

shows 37% strike rate for favourites although NH Flat just tops 40% and shows a level stake profit +6

Although GA SWINBANK has the best strike rate at 29% it looks as if GM MOORE has the largest level stake profit at +53

AP McCoy has a 29% strike rate but shows a level stake loss of -16 whereas DOMINIC ELSWORTH has 23% strike rate and =50 level stake profit

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Saturday takes us to

ASCOT

Favourites win 35% of Ascot races but almost 40% over hurdles

Nicky Henderson has by far the best strike rate of 31% and makes a descent level stake profit +21 but David Pipe has a lower strike rate of 22% but records the best level stake profit +52

PF NICHOLLS -28 & PJ HOBBS -25

Of the jockey’s Barry Geraghty has a huge 39% strike rate and a healthy level stake profit +16 but Tom Scudamore shows them all a clean pair of heels with +35

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

CARLISLE

, overall SR for Fav’s. is 39% but a fantastic 53% of fav’s win the Bumpers although most profit is made by Chase Fav’s + 19.73

Howard-Johnson & JonJo O’Neill have 26% SR but an impressive level stake profit by howard-Johnson is +40 and a Miss SE Forster is only just behind with +39.50

Ferdy Murphy is one to swerve here with a minus -85 at LS

Dennis O’Reagan & AP McCoy share top billing with 29% SR although Dennis O’Reagan is tops at LS +42 and G Lee is a massive -90

HUNTINGDON

Almost 41% of Favourites win here, 42% over hurdles and 51% of Bumper fav’s win

Nicky Henderson tops the trainers strike rate at 35% and makes + 17 at LS
DE Cantillon is tops of the level stakes league +26 whilst GL Moore is bottom – 40

AP McCoy is again top of the percentages with 26& and a healthy +18 level stakes
Noel Fehily comes out best at LS +30
Jamie Moore shows a shocking LS loss -79

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Monday’s cards are: –

KEMPTON

where favourites average just under 37% SR but Bumpers again are "top of the pops" with a SR of 46%

Miss Suzy Smith has a 29% SR & Nicky Henderson 27%
Andrew Turnell tops the SR list with +31 profit while Henderson manages +19
The horror bags to avoid here are JonJo O’Neill -39, PJ Hobbs -33 & David Pipe -30

Ruby Walsh tops the SR chart with 27% but makes a LS loss, Mick Fitz was THE man but sadly no longer and so Dominic Elseworth has a topping LS profit +24
Avoid AP McCoy -30 and Timmy Murphy also -30

PLUMPTON

is where Chase Favourites rule the roost with a 43% Strike Rate and even manage a small LS profit

Nicky Henderson shows them all a clean set of heels with a whopping 44% strike rate but Venetia Williams is worth a look with 31% SR but the level stakes profit king is CL TIZZARD +21
Avoid Willie Mullins here at all cost his LS loss is -47

Micky Fitz as top jock but it is no surprise to find AP McCoy with a topping 25% Strike Rate and a nice +21 LS profit however the top honours again go to Noel Fehily +29
Avoid Leighton Aspell -52 in the level stakes list and Richard Johnson -39

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Tuesday NH racing is at

EXETER

where the Favourite averages are 37% for both Chases and Hurdles and 29% for the Bumpers but non of them make a level stake profit.

Pay Attention because this stat is fantastic: –

Miss EC Lavelle has a chart topping 31% strike rate with a fantastic level stake profit of +68. She is followed in the percentages by PF Nicholls with 30% strike rate couple with a level stake loss -8

Miss Lavelle is simply the best!

For some of the jockey’s this place is a nightmare i.e Joe Tizzard -61, Andrew Thornton -49, Tom Scudamore -41

Barry Fenton was king here but now Christian Williams has the level stakes crown with +21 whilst the evergreen Ruby Walsh tops the percentages with 38 but yet again shows a level stake loss.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Wednsday takes NH racing to the Welsh borders at

CHEPSTOW

Bumper favs make their mark here with 45% strike rate, Chase 35% and Hurdles 34% but only yhe Bumpers make a small LS profit.

PF Nicholls wears the percentage mantle with 25% SR but then has a -20 loss which is not as bad as N Twiston-Davies -65 or JonJo O’Neill -56
Carl Llewellyn is the main man for LS profit here with +45

Ruby Walsh tops the percentage SR list with 32% and =6 LS profit. but Richard Johnson has a huge +52 Level Stakes profit.
Tom Scudamore and Joe Tizzard are well worth avaoiding both with losses in the -50’s

WARWICK

is a good favourites track all showing 40%+ Strike rates and all with a little profit.
Nicky Henderson enjoys this place a lot with 38% Strike Rate and even manages +11 in the level stakes list but that is behind Jim Old +38 and Alan King +34

Top of the Jock’s is Robert Thornton with 25% Strike Rate and LS profit +27 and is only beaton by Jason Maguire +30

Avoid Tom Scudamore who must hate this place, his LS loss -43 and then AP McCoy shows a loss -30 and Richard Johnson -27

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

With HAYDOCK already covered it only remains to check out

TOWCESTER

for Thursday

Favourites cannot be very popular here as they all make a loss but non greater than Hurdles -58

Alan King’s Strike Rate with 27% and shows a healthy level stake profit +36 but JonJo O’Neill has a LS profit +60 whilst HD Daley is worth a mention with +49

All pale before Venetia Williams with a massive +91

Liam Treadwell leads the way with Level Stake Profit +92, Mark Bradburne +79 & Wayne Hutchinson +73

AP McCoy tops the percentages with 30% but only makes +10 in the level stakes table

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Friday it is off to FONTWELL & HEXHAM

FONTWELL

Chase favourites have shown level stake profits of +26 and Bumpers +7 overall 38% of Favs win here.

PF Nicholls is the main trainer with 30% strike rate but shows a heavy LS loss -22

NJ Gifford has the best LS profit +21

AP McCoy has a 24% strike rate but a LS loss -25

SP Jones is +22 for Level Stakes otherwise nothing to get too excited about.

HEXHAM

Is not really the place for favourite backers.

JJ Quinn has the best SR at 24%
But a certain WS Coltherd is + 72 for Level Stakes

Denis O’Reagan enjoys a 27% SR and +16 at LS

Michael McAlister has a whopping +101 at level stakes.

Saturday it is Wincanton, Sandown & Kelso

KELSO

is another graveyard for favourite backers.

P Bowen has a 38% strike rate but a small LS loss.
Ferdy Murphy has the best level stake profit at +27
Howard-Johnson is -51 in the LS league

Dominic Elsworth has a 30% strike rate and a nice level stake profit +24 but TJ Dreaper tops the lot with +64

Give Denis O’Reagan a miss his record show -57

SANDOWN

all favourites show a small profit and 41% strike rate.

PF Nicholls tops the trainers chart with 32% strike rate and +17 profit at Level Stakes
A King is best avoided showing -38 at level stakes

A certain Mr J Snowden has a 50% SR & +22 level stakes

However AP McCoy has a 28% SR and +17 at level stakes

WINCANTON

is again another place where favourites can be best avoided, they win 35% of races but show -41 loss at level stakes.

PF Nicholls does very well with a 30% strike rate and much about the best LS profit +16

Some trainers show some big losses at LS incl. DE Pipe -60, RH Alner -39, Venetia Williams -29 and CL Tizzard -46

Two Jockey’s to note: –
Ruby Walsh with a heavy SR +35%

But Noel Fehily shows a massive LS profit +119

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Sunday goes to

Ffos Las

where no 5 year stats are available.

HEREFORD

34% Strike rate for Favourites but level stakes show a nasty loss -37

NJ Henderson likes this place and has 35% strike rate and a LS profit to boot +10

A King is the best at level stakes +20

AP McCoy tops the charts again with 24% strike rate but an awful level stakes loss -24

Richard Johnson has a healthy SR of 21% and comes out best at level stakes +16

MARKET RASEN

runs a par for the course 36% SR for favs showing a nasty -39 loss if all favs. were backed

NA Twiston-Davies is top of the trainers with 34% strike rate and a nice +39 at level stakes which is just topped by JJ Quinn with +43

Noel Fehily comes out top here with 23% SR and a very nice +43 at level stakes

Billy's Outback Shack

[elcartero]

Handy thread, Billion…..Many thanks for the information.

Powered by Linux

[mal1964]

thanks for that Billion

[billion]

You are welcome chaps and once all tracks are complete there will be a report on the main trainers.

I picked up the FLAT version only in September, more out of interest than anything and in prep. for the Jumps, it proved a little money spinner and soon paid for itself.

I also have the Racing Post Guide to the Jumps 2009 – 2010 which has nice glossy paper but does not look as good as the RFO version.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Monday NH racing is from Carlisle and Southwell.

Carlisle has already been covered

Southwell

looks to be a favourites paradise where 43% of them win and

72% favs. win Bumpers

at level stakes for ALL favourites shows +21 profit.

Trainers to watch for are GA SWINBANK 50% strike rate and C J MANN 36% SR

HEATHER DALTON grosse a LS profit +22 whilst A KING in just short at +19

Christian Williams is top strike rate jockey with 29% but look out for PJ Brennan & Sam Thomas with +29 at level stakes

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Tuesday sees racing at Lingfield, Sedgefield & Exeter (already covered)

Lingfield

Favourites do well here but do not make level stakes profit, overall strike rate averages 40%

Alan King is the top strike rate trainer with 30% and there are only three that make L/S profit
GL Moore +36
A King +12
JonJo O’Neill +22

Robert Thornton’s SR is a huge 42% with +15 LS profit but look out for Noel Fehily +19

Sedgefield

is another of those places where Favourites have a reasonable strike rate but show level stakes loss -26

GA Swinbank has 24& SR but the only trainer to show a level stake profit is M Todhunter +15

TJ O’Brien rides 31% of winners followed by AP McCoy with 26% but the profits lay with Tjade Collier +29 and Michael McAlister +21 at level stakes

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Wednesday Warwick has been covered and only Bangor is left to look at the stats

Bangor

Overasll the favs have 37%SR but Bumpers have 52% and a LS profit +13

Tim Vaughan 39% and JJ Quinn 38% strike rates both post a healthy LS profit along with J Mackie all +20 or more

TJ O’Brien has the best SR at 25% but look out for Mark Bradburne +57 at level stakes

Billy's Outback Shack

[Author]

Posts