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Fortunately im never forced to take the SP on UK racing, 95% of my turnover is Betfair, so that`s out the way!
Someone recently pointed out to me that the UK returned SP had become a joke and that their was a real lack of integrity on how its produced, it`s Bookmaker friendly and in effect supported by the Gamingcommission who are in turn responsible for all integriy issues?
Over the past two days ive been looking at the final price quoted by SIS and compared it with the returned SP, on no less than 6 occassions the winners SP was returned shorter than the last boardprice (and i mean the price when a circuit had been completed!!), for instance today Private Be was 5-2 (returned 9-4),yesterday Moorlands Teri 5-1 (9-2) and Tricky Trickster 2-1 (15-8), these are just a few that spring to mind, on no occassion was the SP bigger than the last board price!!
I`ve only been looking at this for a couple of days so i might be jumping the gun a little,however,in my opinion its a big issue if the Gamingcommission know about such a practice but turn a blind eye in order to appease their Members (Bookmakers), surely such a practice would be open to litigation (Mass)!!
Am i wrong or is their something im missing??
There are no integrity issues over how the SP is returned, any mention of it is scaremongering and attempts to demean the PA and the teams collating the data.
The SiS shows (on RUK tracks) are not the official shows nor the SP, they are collated as industry SPs. Let us not forget that in such case, since these shows are not the official SP, the major bookmakers have no necessity to try to shorten the price of horses since the SiS final price means nothing. Not only that, the major bookmakers will not be backing horses at the SiS show prices, they will be betting them oncourse, where the SPs are collated, thus causing prices to tighten up on those that they back. This is why the SiS shows will undoubtedly show several horses at larger than SP.
Another point to bear in mind is that SiS has a vested interest in making sure that their shows are consistently better than the official ones since they are trying to put TurfTV out of business anyway! As their shows/final prices essentially mean nothing, they can get away with it and the bookmakers aren’t going to complain since they wo’t be using the prices anyway.
The question over how reliable the oncourse markets are now to provide an accurate reflection of the betting market of each race in the returned show prices/SPs is a different one altogether. No-one denies that, mainly at the AW tracks where few books turn up, the markets are pretty weak. This is the biggest problem surrounding SPs in my view.
SL…..So you are convinced the SP is an accurate reflection of the prices being offered at the track?
I remember the system being changed but like i say it doesn`t really effect me thus i never went into any depth, so the likes of SIS are the culprits as far as SP customers are concerned!
How are the Irish SPS acquired?
Hi Tony
Yes, I think that the show prices and SPs returned are an accurate reflection of the oncourse betting market at the time – as accurate as you can get, that is. Every effort is made to ensure this, that doesn’t stop some refuting that though!
As I said, the biggest problem is in the weakness of the markets and also the influence of Betfair/Betdaq on these markets. At some of these smaller meetings (and the AW in particular) there are few bookmakers standing and the prices they are offering aren’t necessarily indicitive of what they’ve taken on the race, more a following of prices on the exchanges. If there is trade money for one, it doesn’t always take a lot to move the prices I’m afraid.
Sorry, I don’t know how the SPs are collated in Ireland.
on no less than 6 occassions the winners SP was returned shorter than the last boardprice (and i mean the price when a circuit had been completed!!), for instance today Private Be was 5-2 (returned 9-4),yesterday Moorlands Teri 5-1 (9-2) and Tricky Trickster 2-1 (15-8), these are just a few that spring to mind, on no occassion was the SP bigger than the last board price!!
Tony
Fine, so that covers three races over two days. Three questions spring to mind:
1. What happened to the last show to SP prices of the remainder of the runners in those fields?
2. What happened to the last show/SP comparison in the remainder of the races on the day?
3. What was the field percentage for SP in the three example races?
Rob
SL, Thanks!
Rob,
Sorry Rob, Can`t answer 1 or 2 as i didn`t take notes on the last show, just observed how the winner was shortened after the race (Well, compared to the Data supplied from SIS)
3. 111% 6 runers (1.83% per runner)
122% 14 runners (1,57% per runner which is fair enough considering the race was a bumper)
118% 9 runners (2 % per runner). Newbury!!
From experience i know the likes of Bangor and Ayr offer lower over-rounds than the likes of Lingfield, in fact Southern Bookmakers tend to keep a bit more in for themselves!!
Tony
The 9-runner field book wasn’t giving too much away. The bumper book was surprisingly good, if ever there are races I would expect the bookmakers to be cautious in it would be NH Flat races. I’d be interested to see how many horses on the day were bigger than last show, though without market figures it’s difficult.
The book percentages tend to fairly tight on the Scottish circuit, but like you though I do most of my betting on Betfair. It gives me the flexibility to take a value price or, if my selection is below my limit, to ask for a price to be matched.
SP punters are up against it by virtue of the market they are dealing in. Not enough of them are discerning enough to improve their betting anyway.
Rob
Those bookie chappies were tucking in nicely on the last four at GL tonight. God bless you Betfair.
I’ve noticed consistently when at the track that the show prices on TV are simply not available in reality and it’s therefore perfectly obvious that they are not a reflection of the board prices of the bookies that are present
If you compare SPs since the change(November 2006, I think)) in terms of overround per runner with those before the change, you will find that they have increased on average by about 30 per cent. In effect, the SP punter is considerably worse off since the change, and bookmaker’s margins are higher. They needed to be higher because many Licensed Betting Offices were struggling as operating costs spiralled. The Fixed Odds Betting machines have also helped many units to survive and indeed, in my locality there seems to be more betting offices opening as they become profitable again.
SP betting is fine for people who bet for entertainment and amusement: you have to pay for your pleasure. For those who aspire to making a decent return on their betting as a reward for studying form, I wouldn’t recommend it.
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Artemis
For all the chicanery that goes on with SP’s at the quieter tracks, the overall margins are still little different to what they were before the advent of the exchanges.
Not only are you suggesting that no one can make a profit by betting at SP but, by implication, that no one did for the entire second-half of the last Century?
Clearly, you are wrong on both counts.Artemis,
I have responded to numerous threads about sp returns, as recently as last month.
Which change do you want to use.
year 2000 change, black box introduced, sp overounds, 2.3% reduced to 1.3%.
year 2006 change, sp overounds increased to 1.7%.
SIS are not a factor in sp’s, they like their competitors Amrac ( might have changed their name) supply shows for their customers, ie. mainly betting shops.
What has happened more and more is that the shows that get relayed to betting shops and TV companies are actually more and more out of sync to what is going on in the market. Coral, where I do a lot of my betting have a had a lot of trouble for several weeks with very slow screens that are 60 secs plus behind. So even when a race is off, they are a price or two behind the market.
The other issue that I was talking to a mate about the other day was how they no longer put up on the racing screen what the SP is during the race. I remember when it would say things like SPs as last show or put up the returned prices during the race so you knew. Why this has stopped is beyond me but it then makes things look suspicious when they may not actually be. That said, the markets do seem to be squeezed dramatically the nearer you get to an off with most prices coming in not out, because of that, I nearly always take a price and more often than not I got bigger than SP.As mentioned earlier in the thread the last show that SIS put up won’t neccesarily be the SP since it’s the Press Association who declare the SP and not SIS.
I think there might be some confusion here over who has what to do with the SPs/show prices.
Barry Dennis, of course SiS [and Amrac/TurfTV] are a factor in the SPs; they collate the information and process it before supplying that information to the PA (said information being approved by the PA validator on duty before being sent to the PA) so that there are shows/SPs to be returned. Amrac (Amalgamated Racing) have not changed their name – their product is TurfTV and as such, that name is more widely recognisable than Amrac hence why I used it.
IS, the PA return the SPs/show prices, yes – but it is SiS/Amrac who collate that information, process it and supply it to the PA (again, after it has been approved by the PA validator) in the first place so that they [the PA] can provide that information to the relevant parties.
As for comments stating that the TV shows often don’t tally with what is available so the shows/SPs can’t possibly reflect the market, that is misunderstood, I’m afraid. The TV shows can often be slightly behind the actual current shows and when it comes to ATR I don’t know where they get their information from – whether or not they show actual shows or the SiS ones. If the latter, that could explain why the prices are slightly out – they are collated offcourse in the same way that industry SPs are garnered so no, they will not necessarily accurately reflect what is available oncourse. Otherwise, of course the shows reflect prices that are available in reality (oncourse) – where do you think the information for the shows/SPs comes from in the first place? It’s not made up, you know!
There are no integrity issues over how the SP is returned, any mention of it is scaremongering and attempts to demean the PA and the teams collating the data.
.. I couldn’t agree with you more SL, it’s the framework within which the returning system operates which always ensures punters get a terrible deal not the mechanism itself.
reet hard.
If you compare any meeting today with the same meeting pre Nov 2006, when the main change took place, you will discover the difference in overrounds per runner. I haven’t checked it for a while, but I’ll have a look at today’s Ascot card compared with the same card in 2005(if they raced) as an example..
If anyone can return a consistent profit betting at SP at present, they must be very astute judges of racing form to beat those percentages. It must have been easier before the changes, yet still very difficult.
I emphasise consistency because anyone can enjoy a profitable spell or even get very lucky with a big multiple bet pay out. I’m talking about people who are betting almost everyday confident that they can make good money betting at SP. I would say that such people are very rare indeed and are much rarer today than they were before November 2006.
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