Reducing the Derby distance

[Marginal Value]

Reduce the Derby to 10F? Do not do it. It would lead to less able, weaker horses being hailed as champions, and used as stallions (for three years at least) to produce weaker, less talented future generations.

I thought I might leave it there, since many posters prefer to assert that their view is correct just by uttering it. And I am congenitally lazy, and can think of many more pleasurable things to do with my time. However….

Top dozen races by total purse:

$20 million – Saudi Cup 9F Dirt
$11 million – Everest (AUS) 6F Turf
$10 million – Dubai World Cup 10F Dirt
$6 million – Dubai Sheema Classic 12F Turf
$5.7 million – Arima Kinen 12F Turf
$5.7 million – Arc De Triomphe 12F Turf
$5.2 million – Japan Cup 12F Turf
$5 million – Dubai Turf 9F Turf
$5 million – Breeders Cup Classic 10F Dirt
$3 million – Breeders Cup Turf 12F Turf
$4.4 million – Melbourne Cup 16F Turf
$3 million – Kentucky Derby 10F Dirt

In comparison, the Derby only has a total purse of $2.2 million. But six out of twelve are at 12F or more, on Turf! The four races at 9F or 10F are all on dirt. Does this mean that our “New Derby” over 10F should be run on Dirt to identify potential stallions for the big prizes in the rest of the world?

There is no commercial need for the Derby to be cut to 10F. The world has NOT come to the view that 1m2f, not 1m4f, is the trip that matters most.

There are some comments claiming that winning over 10F is advantageous to a potential stallion’s success, attracting both breeders and purchasers. After two crops of three-year-olds, that does not matter a jot. The DNA in the sperm of stallions has no idea over what distance a horse raced, or how successfully. That is why the world’s most expensive stallion for the past fifteen years, Deep Impact, won two Group Ones at about two miles and still breeders/buyers were very keen to acquire his progeny – because they had a higher chance of being Top Class.

As for the market for buying young horses, just looking at the 2019 Tattersalls Yearling Sales, (before the pandemic struck), the top 100 yearlings sold in terms of highest price were sired by a spread of speed and stamina stallions. Grouping them by the stallion’s best distance (by best Racing Post Rating)

12F 21
10F 4
8F 36
7F 6
6F 17
5F 2

Plus the weirdo Frankel, who had 14 in the list, but he had equal RPRs for both 8F and 10.5F so did not fit into a single category. My opinion is that he is much more an influence for stamina than he is for speed as a stallion, but the complete opposite as a racehorse.

International success for stallions is measured by stud fee, topping the sales stats, winning big races, winning big money and satisfying various measures by such publications as Thoroughbred Racing Community (TRC), APEX lists, and Thoroughbred Daily News (TDN) sires tables.

The current rankings below by TRC are typical of the last few years. Listed here with the distances of Group 1 races that they won. AWD = Average Winning Distance of progeny

01. Galileo (AWD: 11.2) 3 x Grp1, 3 x 12F
02. Deep Impact (AWD: 10.5) 7 x Grp1, 1 x 10F, 1 x 11F, 3 x 12F, 1 x 15F, 1 x 16F
03. Dubawi (AWD: 9.5) 3 x Grp1, 1 x 7F, 2 x 8F
04. Frankel (AWD: 10.6) 10 x Grp1, 1 x 7F, 7 x 8F, 1 x 10F, 1 x 10.5F
05. Kingman (AWD: 8.5) 4 x Grp1, 4 x 8F
06. Into Mischief (AWD: 6.5) 1 x Grp1, 8.5F
07. Lord Kanaloa (AWD: 8.0) 6 x Grp1, 5 x 6F, 8F
08. Sea The Stars (AWD:11.3) 6 x Grp1 at 8F, 2 X 10F, 1 x 10.5F, 2 X 12F
09. Shamardal (AWD: 8.2) 4 x Grp1 2 x 7F, 8F, 10.5F
10. Teofilo (AWD: 10.7) 2 x Grp1 at 7F at 2yo only

Don’t you just love it that Deep Impact won Group 1 races over 15F and 16F!

And what do breeders want. They want the top four in that list, who are pretty much the most expensive in the world. With the top two now dead, I do not think that any breeder who has been paying attention in the last two/three decades will try to replace them with Kingman, Into Mischief and Lord Kanaloa. They will want stallions that can produce winners over 12F, whatever distance they ran over in their racing career.

There are Eight long-term highly successful stallions from the Derby winners in the forty years from 1970 to 2010. In the same period, there are only Three such stallions (barring the Derby ones) from the combined three major UK 10F Group Ones, Eclipse, International and Champion Stakes. The three 10F sires of note are Sadler’s Wells, Giant’s Causeway and Frankel, and two of those are strong influences for stamina.

Does this 10F Derby proposal not imply that if we shortened the Derby to ten furlongs we would have the race won more frequently by horses who would not stay twelve furlongs? So, which stallions would supply the neceesary stamina to help the progeny of Kingman, Wootton Bassett, etc to see out the distance in the New World of ten furlong Super Races?

For instance:

French Derby winners since the change to 10F – 10 from 16 with sire or dam-sire a Group 1 12F winner.

In the last dozen years Eclipse, International and Champion Stakes winners – 22 from 36 with sire or dam-sire a Group 1 12F winner.

So, get rid of those 12F stamina guys and the new 10F winners will not be able to stay 10F !! So the proposal is: Eight furlongs is far enough for any thoroughbred. Do you see the problem here? A great future for the Quarter-Horse in Europe, Japan, Australia and Hong Kong.

Japan with a racing industry three times the size of the USA’s ($24 billion to $9 billion) will not be happy.

The distances that actually seem to matter are 6F, 8F and 12F. Especially 12F, because 12F stallions stop the breed from becoming feeble. The ones that stay 12F have to show mental and physical toughness that is not demanded of 10F horses. That is why they turn up so frequently in the pedigrees of shorter runners. It is not about the numbers, but what the numbers mean; as I am sure all you successful punters know.

[Marlingford]

You are preaching to the converted in my case, but what a fantastic post Marginal Value

[IanDavies]

It was a very interesting post to read, but I am not convinced the world still sees 1m4f as King when the world’s most valuable races are 1m1f, 6f(!) and 1m2f.

As I have said COUNTLESS times, 1m4f is still King to me, but I see mounting evidence the world on balance sees it differently.

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[IanDavies]

Btw, good to see Hurricane Lane impressing in the race which is now more “French Derby” than the French Derby!

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Marginal Value]

“… but I see mounting evidence the world on balance sees it differently. “

Ian. Not wishing to start a Barney, but it would be good if you could point to the mounting evidence, because I think the following stats have been relatively stable recently, give or take a smidgeon. Am I looking in the wrong direction, at places like the IFHA?

The big dirt countries, USA and Canada have 107 Grade 1 races of which just 6 are at 12F or over (5.60%)

The big turf countries, UK, Ireland, France, Germany & Japan have 106 Group 1 races of which 33 are 12F or over (31.1%).

On a like-for-like basis there is still a big gulf. Are the turf countries really altering their racing distances to accommodate the North Americans?

[IanDavies]

You seem far too polite for a Barney to occur.

As stated I read your IMO excellent posting with great interest.

The reason why it didn’t change my mind is because I am all about impressions.

I grew up with 1m4f being King – The Derby, the Irish Derby (which was basically just a coronation for a good Derby winner – Troy and Shergar trotted up for example) and the King George was the big mid summer Championship race with the International at York a relative after thought.

But all that seems to have changed.

It was never felt necessary to run at Frankel at 1m4f – unlike Brigadier Gerard in the 1970s – and Australia was perfect for the King George but they wanted to win a 1m2f Group 1 with him instead to show he had speed.

The Dubai World Cup and Breeders’ Cup
Classic are both relatively (to the UK Classics) new races introduced at 1m2f, and a 1m4f race worldwide doesn’t make the top three purses.

And when I look at The Derby contenders each year nowadays, I see fewer pedigrees that scream 1m4f to me.

A lot are 1m1f-1m2f with a chance of 1m4f.

Galileo had an out-and-out 1m4f pedigree and that was his trip on the track.

I just wonder if he will be the last of the great quintessential 1m4f sires.

Frankel wasn’t bred to stay 1m4f and never attempted it.

Though he sires stayers if put to the right mares, he’s a different type of sire in my book and I just sense a different future looming Post-Galileo.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Marginal Value]

Ian. Thank you very much for taking the time and trouble to reply. It was very much in the mould of an old (age), old (long time ago), poster on here called Andyod. He was from the USA and was very good at teaching people like me about USA racing; with detail and patience. Thanks.

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