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Quite.
Am I excited about Keir Starmer? No
Do I think we’ll wake up on Friday after the next election and all of our problems will evaporate? Of course not.
Would I vote Labour in a heartbeat if they are the best option to unseat the Tories? It’s 1.01 in running and that’s still value.
Thanks to Guido for these observations.
On Tamworth:
“In April 1996, one year ahead of the 1997 general election, a by-election took place in the very same area (then called South East Staffordshire). Blair’s Labour won the seat from the Tories on a massive swing: 22.1 percentage points, just less than the 23.9 point swing in Tamworth now.”
On Mid Bedfordshire:
“Labour’s gain is the largest raw Conservative majority (24,664) to be overturned by Labour at a by-election since 1945. The seat has elected Conservative MPs continuously since 1931.”
No real way of spinning any of the above to look good.
I think there will be a bit of a revival for the Conservatives at the General Election. But it won’t be enough to see off Labour, especially if the party gains a lot of seats in Scotland from the increasingly hapless SNP.
A small Labour majority looks the likely outcome now.
A small majority would suit me – landslide PMs (Thatcher, Blair, even Johnson to a degree) tend to think they’re God Almighty and have a divine right to rule and that is never great for democracy.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"It should be mentioned the turnout in the 1996 by-election was much higher (62% v 35%).
The real winner yesterday was apathy.
The Tory faithful won’t come out for Sunak , regardless whether it’s a bi or general election
‘The Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwartang mini budget is what has killed the Tories, even more than Partygate.’
This is also a good point.
In a couple of months, an extra couple of hundred will be leaving my account each month as a direct result of this. I’m fortunate that I can just about swallow that but many can’t and many are seeing much bigger increases. Tens of thousands of people every month are experiencing this and it won’t take long for most of them to think ‘thanks Liz’.
If I’d left it literally a day, it would have cost me another ton a month. That’s how fast things moved.
I’m getting over 5% return on savings after years of nothing so I can’t shed fake tears for that , however I heard on LBC earlier someone arguing that a massacre for the Tories could see the likes of Truss return to the fire and and a return to the severe right …..
I bet the savings rates didn’t go up as quickly as the mortgage rates.
I’d welcome Truss et al back to the top of the Tory table. Keeping them unelectable and out of power is fine by me.
Agree completely, Richard. The further the Tories go to the right, the less electable they become in the long term.
I’m not a big fan of the writer, but she raises some excellent points here:
First time I noticed Polly Toynbee’s column it was on the “Women’s Page,” a left-hand page that April Monday,
On the right-hand page it was the racing page with Richard Baerlein writing “now is the time to bet like men” regarding taking the 8/1 Shergar for The Derby following his ten-length win in The Guardian Classic Trial at Sandown Park on the Saturday.
Toynbee’s politics were a lot closer to mine than Baerlein’s, but the latter was always the more interesting read.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Richard Baerlein writing “now is the time to bet like men” regarding taking the 8/1 Shergar for The Derby”
Did he? Never heard that anecdote before.
That’s true Richard however a severe right will get votes … prob with Farage wearing a blue rosette , if Labour struggle then where could we end up …
We often talk about how the centre-left vote is fragmented, but the Conservatives would have held Tamworth comfortably without UKIP, Reform and Britain First.
https://labourlist.org/2023/10/tamworth-by-election-results-labour-sarah-edwards/?amp
Spent the day listening to Cummings at the covid enquiry …. its a miracle any of us lived by the sounds of it , I can’t wait till Boris has to sit down at this …. LBC has to keep apologizing for the language from the quotes
Who would have guessed that electing a self-centred celebrity buffoon would turn out to be a bad idea?
‘Who would have guessed that electing a self-centred celebrity buffoon would turn out to be a bad idea?’
Well over half of the 2019 voting public. In a democracy he and his equally useless chums would have had far less sway.
The Johnson supporting press are in full on ‘look over there’ mode recently. Could get a bit awkward if their mainly elderly readerships find out he was quite happy for them to die. I have long thought that in private these people laugh at the mugs who vote for them and turns out it’s true.
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