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Whilst it was terrific to see the Lib Dems’ demolition of the Tories in Somerton and Frome, as well as Labour’s record-breaking turnaround in Selby and Ainsty, the fact that the Conservatives narrowly (by a mere 495 votes) held on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip was depressing.
Of course, Sadiq Khan’s plan to extend the Ulez zone is being blamed for Labour’s inability to win Bozo’s former seat, when in fact it’s the shortsightedness of the voting public that’s really to blame.
“Environment on the verge of collapse? Thousands of Londoners dying through pollution? So what? I can’t be bothered walking/cycling/using public transport.”
I believe the Selby result is the largest turnaround in a majority on record , the Tories will be out today with the false smiles saying they,ve done well , in reality they’ll be party members now asking if they can really go to an election with Sunak …
Selby
Compared to 2019 GE
Labour gained just 3000 votes
Tories lost 20000 votes
Turnout for this by election was v low.
Tories lost Selby because their voters stayed away.So, the big Q is
Will those ‘missing’ Tory voters vote at next GE and which party will they vote for?Somerton&Frome may be different.
Tories been losing council by-elections across Somerset over last year. LDs win, yday, puts ’em back at pre-2015 pos in the South West.
However, turnout here was also v low. 76% ’19GE v 40%.
Tory voters here also stayed away in their 000s.
LDs picked up just 4000 extra votes (compared to 2019 GE)
Tories ‘lost’ 26000 votes, as their voters stayed away.Next GE, parliament prediction outcome?- Lab/LD coalition
I think these results offer a glimmer, but no more, of renewed hope for the Conservatives and the market has reacted accordingly.
Labour have eased slightly to 1.17 for Most Seats and 1.55 for an Overall Majority.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Agree Glad, I do tire of Londoners moaning about the so-called war on motorists. The rest of us would love a public transport system that good. If they don’t like Khan, why do they keep voting him in? They may also wish to look up whose idea the ULEZ was.
Do agree with you about the possibility of a hung Parliament too Wilts. Labour will clearly be the largest party and a majority remains possible, even probable, but anything can happen and a coalition cannot be ruled out.
I still think a Hung Parliament is a possibility.
The Lib-Dems may do better than Labour in rural areas and Labour might not get the break through they need in Scotland either.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The Somerton and Frome result has the look of a classic Liberal by-election protest vote. I doubt they will hold it at the General Election.
Somerton and Frome was Liberal from 1997-2010, albeit with small majorities throughout, so personally I doubt the swing this time was all down to protest voting
The Selby and Ainsty seat has only existed since 2010 and although the Consevative majorities since then have been large, Labour have always been a ‘good’ second with 25-34% of the vote, with other parties barely figuring, bar UKIP in 2015
The consituency itself is generally a prosperous area full of picture-postcard villages but there remains a rump of the population who were employed in the now defunct Selby Coalfield: diehard Labour voters
Prior to 2010 the old seat of Selby – which included the southern Labour-voting suburbs of York and the university (now all part of the York Central seat) – was Labour from 1997-2010
I’ve not been following it much, lately, I’ve ceased even my previous daily visit to the BBC News website and I find my life is, if not better, certainly no worse for having literally no idea what is going on in the world outside my own day-to-day existence.
I wasn’t even aware the Tory conference was occurring until it ended and I saw something on “X” about Penny Mordaunt having given a weird speech and I only know Labour’s has started because the usual southern Tory ex-public school boy misogynist hate towards Angela Rayner was in full vent yesterday.
But I have been looking at the betting, which was steady during the Tory conference – they did no further damage but no good either – but still yesterday Labour has steadily shortened from 1.2 to 1.19 to 1.18 for most seats and to 1.44 from 1.5 for an overall majority.
Andrew Marr on YouTube thinks a spring election is probable.
Most Seats
Labour 1.18
Conservatives 6.4Overall Majority
Labour 1.44
No Overall Majority 4.4
Conservatives 11.5I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Most Seats
Labour 1.14
Conservatives 8Overall Majority
Labour 1.36
No Overall Majority 5.1
Conservatives 12.5Betfair Exchange markets make increasingly-grim reading for the government.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The Tories are toast , be more interesting to see what price Sunak is to be PM going into the election , he didn’t even bother trying to help canvass in the bi election , they knew they had little chance
Mid-Beds
Labour gained 150+ votes, compared to 2019 GE.
Yet another 2023 By-election ‘won’ by the Stay-At-Home ‘party’.Wilts the problem is the Tory faithful won’t come out for Sunak , I’ll be very surprised if there’s isn’t some murmurs of a change , they are currently lambs going to a spring time election slaughter
More like another by-election lost by a party that has spent 13 plus years achieving nothing but taking the country backwards with its lies, corruption and incompetence. As has been said before, incumbents lose elections, opposition doesn’t win them. You can never read too much into by-elections but the message is still obvious.
Biggest take away for me is the need for the anti-Tory parties/voters to work together. If you want them out, Labour and Lib Dem voters will need to hold their nose in places and vote for the other one. Also notable that the cranks even further to the right of the Tories arguably cost them both seats.
“He didn’t even bother trying to help canvass in the by-election”.
I am no admirer of Sunak and am not making excuses for him but there is a long standing convention that Prime Ministers do not campaign in by-elections. Presumably because it is meant to be a one off election to select a constituency MP rather than a national campaign.
Of course, that does not stop by-elections becoming some sort of verdict on the party in government. But Prime Ministers tend to steer clear of them, especially if a defeat looks likely.
I made a point of saying it’s grim for the government and not even mentioning Labour.
Yes, this isn’t about enthusiasm for the Opposition, but then there never is.
The public get sick of governments – especially ones that have been in office a long time – they never, EVER, get excited about an Opposition.
There was no great enthusiasm for Labour in 1997 either – merely an acknowledgement they were now more moderate than in the days of Michael Foot and even Neil Kinnock.
Same here – Keir Starmer definitely isn’t Jeremy Corbyn, moderate Tory voters won’t fear a Starmer administration the way they’d have feared a Corbyn one.
And Rachel Reeve actually has the approval of ex-BoE governor John Carney as next Chancellor – that’s how moderate she is.
Can you imagine Corbyn’s man John McDonnell ever having that?
Black Friday did for Major – he was a dead man walking for five years after that.
The Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwartang mini budget is what has killed the Tories, even more than Partygate.
As John Curtice says, fiscal humiliations are the chief assassin of incumbent governments, no matter who is leading at the time.
Sunak was against what Truss did, but that won’t save him.
The Tories are toast – no way back now.
But there’s always a silver lining – if Starmer is everything he says he is, Tories will barely notice any difference on taxation at all.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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