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Im looking to make my own ratings on each horse and rating each performance,does anyone do this at all and please could you explain on how you do it?
With thanks.
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What are your aims and objectivies?
You need to think this through, we’ll all be here to help if you have a more detailed post.
It will be too time consuming to do all horses – you need to specialise.
For example, 2yos, juvenile hurdlers, 2 mile hurdlers, chasers, h’cap sprinters, Fibresand, Polytrack.Lower grade animals are too inconsistent for your ratings to mean anything.
You also have to decide whether you want to do
traditional form handicapping
speed handicapping
pace handicapping
trip handicappingForm handicapping will be a bit basic, as it mainly about the finishing distances. You’ll then have to use your judgment to decide how much in hand a horse still had at the end.
For speed handicapping you need to either compile your own par figures, or use a set that you trust. You’ll also have to take notice of rail movements.
For pace handicapping, you’ll have to start making your own sectional timings.
For trip handicapping, you’ll have to watch the races lots of times, so that you can take account of how many lanes wide a horse was going around a bend etc.we’ll all be here to help
Not sure about that. I’ve tried starting or contributing to similar threads, and the people who keep their own ratings didn’t contribute.
It is understandable, as they will lose their edge if lots of people are doing it exactly the same way as they are."Gerald wrote:
Lower grade animals are too inconsistent for your ratings to mean anything.
Not sure about that, i would rather say they are the most manipulated section!
Because of this belief they are allowed to do so IMOSort of carrying on from that, once you’ve compiled your ratings, you have then got to sit down and look at them, and try to figure out what they mean.
Someone asked a few weeks ago about whether they should be taking the best rating, or the best rating last time out. One answer given was to take the horse whose last two ratings are better than anything else in the field, but such creatures are rare, and presumably go off at short odds.
What you have to do Superkauto is to work out under which conditions horses produce their best performances. Some people seem to do this over the jumps, and don’t bother with the ratings at all.
traditional form handicapping
pace handicapping
trip handicappingare the three i would like to do, i only wish to do ratings on national hunt as im not a flat lover at all.it be mainly ratings so i can work out handicaps better, as i normally get graded races correct but find handicaps harderer to get right.
I did a small system for the cheltenham festival rating each horse out of the number of them there was ie. if there was 10 in a race the one i thought had the most chance 10 and the one i didnt fancy at all 1. but i wish to go into more detail on this topic as i have now been put forward to leave my postion at my current job and i have been able to make a profit at a consistent rate and could live off it if i staked higher.
thanks to all that wishes to help.
If you are just wanting a baic form rating based on pounds per length, then I don’t there’s much point in compiling your own, you’ll save far much time using some of the commercial ones already available. I’ll leave it to someone else to recommend some that doesn’t have a vested interest. They key is how you interprete them. How solid is the figure that has been awarded for a particular effort? To what extent could the form be assessed higher or lower? How solid is it? What is the likelihood of the form being repeated next time under different circumstances, or even under the same circumstances? And all the time, you are having to compare all these factors against the odds available for the horse on their next outing.
i have been able to make a profit at a consistent rate and could live off it if i staked higher.
That’s a dangerous assumption. Higher staking might increase profit, but it also increases the risk of a losing run that wipes out your capital.
And as I’m sure AP will agree, the odds of such a losing run increase when you begin to stake out of your comfort zone….
but i wish to go into more detail on this topic as i have now been put forward to leave my postion at my current job and i have been able to make a profit at a consistent rate and could live off it if i staked higher.
Madness.
Carvillshill…..
Forgive me if I’m being dense here but why should ‘the odds of such a losing run increase when you begin to stake out of your comfort zone….’Powered by Linux
Carvillshill…..
Forgive me if I’m being dense here but why should ‘the odds of such a losing run increase when you begin to stake out of your comfort zone….’.. I would have thought they increase because you can’t afford to lose before you wipe out your capital.
If you can’t win with pennies you can’t win with pounds.
Carvillshill…..
Forgive me if I’m being dense here but why should ‘the odds of such a losing run increase when you begin to stake out of your comfort zone….’I think that when you are staking out of your comfort zone then it is all well and good when you are hitting winners, but when you have a few losers then there is much more chance that you are likely to go chasing the money you have lost.
I know myself that there are some days when you start the day feeling really confident with your picks, and nothing goes your way whatsoever, even when Im staking low I feel a bit gutted on those days, but the more you are staking the harder it is to keep your cool.
Not only that, but with every losing bet you are much closer to having no bank than if you were betting more realistically.
I can remember Harry Findlay being interviewed last year and talking about one day when he was younger, when went out and walked his dog on a saturday morning and buzzing thinking of all the money he was going to make that day, and then walking his dog that evening, having just blown almost everything he had at the time (something like 70grand).
Heavy losses are very hard to accept psychologically, and can affect your judgement in future staking.
I generally only bet fivers and tenners as a single point and if I feel more confident about a certain bet then I’ll raise that to a number that I’m not bothered about losing, relative to what I think the horses chances are. However in 2005 there were a few occasions where I won a few thousand, and on one of those occasions I went into the bookies on prix moulin day, half cut from celebrating the day before and blew 3 grand in about an hour and a half, betting on races which I shouldnt even have looked at, I barely left my room for about a week, because I was that depressed.
Some people may do it differently but IMO you should allocate yourself a bank that you arent bothered about losing and divide that amount by at least 100 and take that as a point and never bet more than five points on the ones you are most confident about.
Thanks for an interesting response to my query, Bully…I can identify with the point you make as no doubt will many other punters but I still don’t understand why ‘the odds’ of a losing run should increase as stakes are increased. Surely ‘the odds’ will remain the same resulting in either greater profits or greater losses or am I still missing something here.
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Elcartero,
Perhaps ‘odds’ is not exactly the right word. But the reality is that if you have £1000 in the bank, it takes a much shorter losing run to wipe that out if your average stake is £200 than it would if your stake was £50.
So the chance, probablity or ‘odds’ on a wipeout are much shorter.
The point being made to the original poster (who seems to have gone missing anyway) is that increasing stakes isn’t a certain way of increasing profits unless it is matched by a larger initial bank.
One thing I found when upping stakes out of my "comfort zone" was that it effected how I looked at a race. Sometimes my thinking was biased in favour of favourites (those with a greater chance of winning) and sometimes towards outsiders (lesser chance of losing too much money, ie with smaller stakes).
You have to be able to look at the race with no bias to find the value horse/s.
I found it much easier to up stakes gradually, gradually increasing my comfort zone.
A very wise professional gambler once told me that "many punters can make a profit at a low level; but when they up stakes it effects the way they look at things so are unable to find value / profit". May be I am one of those punters, we shall see.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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